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📉 The Top 10 BUSTS in 2024

📉 The Top 10 BUSTS in 2024

Disappointing draft picks to avoid

Joe Holka
August 30, 2024

The Top 10 BUSTS in 2024

Welcome to the Fantasy Drop Army newsletter!

Every fantasy draft is littered with land mines that can blow up your entire season’s plan. The key is knowing where they are and how to avoid them. That’s why I’m here. Read on to find out who to avoid this season in your eleventh hour drafts.

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#10: Dallas Goedert (PHI), ADP 117, TE12

Goedert has been a low-end TE1 when healthy, with finishes in the TE9-12 range over the years. But there are red flags. In 2023, he posted a career-low in yards per reception and has missed an average of nearly five games per season over the last five years. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and now Jahan Dotson ahead of him in the pecking order, Goedert’s role is uncertain. Better to pass on him with solid depth at the position available.

#9: George Pickens (PIT), ADP 48.5, WR30

Pickens excelled as a deep threat last season, ranking 10th in deep targets. But the Steelers' offense is poised to struggle. With Diontae Johnson gone, his opportunities may increase, but Russell Wilson’s decline and Arthur Smith’s conservative play-calling could cap his upside. Pickens might not deliver as expected.

#8: D’Andre Swift (CHI), ADP 88.4, RB24

Swift is now on his third team in three years and has yet to realize his full potential in the NFL. He’s shown flashes but never sustained success. With Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson ranking higher in elusiveness and already established in Chicago, Swift’s role is far from certain. He’s a risky pick.

#7: David Njoku (CLE), ADP 100, TE11

Njoku thrived with Joe Flacco last season but was mediocre with Deshaun Watson, averaging just 8.6 PPR points per game. Watson’s Cleveland revival is still in question, and Njoku’s production could suffer if Watson doesn’t return to form. Let someone else take the risk.

#6: Chris Olave (NO), ADP 21.8, WR15

Olave’s second-round ADP feels too high. Despite hype around his unrealized air yards, Derek Carr is still his QB. Carr’s inconsistency could keep Olave from reaching his potential, making him a risky pick at his current price.

#5: Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 19.4, WR13

Waddle’s second-round price tag is too steep. He’ll have some spike weeks in Miami’s offense, but his target share is about 10% lower than Tyreek Hill’s, and Hill dominates red zone targets. With Tua’s inconsistency and the Dolphins’ run-heavy approach, Waddle carries too much risk.

#4: Zack Moss (CIN), ADP 108.5, RB32

Moss was productive in Jonathan Taylor’s absence last season, but his elusiveness metrics were underwhelming. With Chase Brown getting more reps with the starters and excelling in the passing game, Moss’s role as a feature back is uncertain. He’s a risky pick, even at RB32.

#3: Justin Herbert (LAC), ADP 140, QB17

Herbert is dealing with too much uncertainty. He’s coming off a foot injury, has a new and unfamiliar WR corps, and faces a tough early-season schedule. Leave him on the board and look for safer options.

#2: Kyren Williams (LAR), ADP 24.7, RB8

The news that Williams will serve as the Rams’ punt returner is a red flag. Despite leading the league in snap share, he managed just an 11% target rate, ranking 18th. Unless he secures more passing work, his opportunity share could dip, making him a risky pick at RB8.