📉 10 Players Likely to REGRESS

Welcome Back to Drop Army Fantasy!

Below I’ve compiled a list of solid fantasy contributors from 2024 who I don’t think will quite reach the same heights in 2025. So, be cautious when drafting them.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• 10 Players who will regress in 2025 📉 

• Access to to 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Kit 🏆 

• The latest news from around the NFL 🏈

And come hang out with me on YouTube. I’m posting fantasy content all summer long!

10. Aaron Jones (MIN), ADP 83, RB29

Jones finished last season with 306 touches — the HIGHEST of his career. But over his final 8 games, he cracked 100 scrimmage yards just twice and posted a career-low in yards per touch. Now in Minnesota, he enters a system that was DEAD LAST in red zone rushing rate under Kevin O'Connell — and Jordan Mason has already been getting first-team goal-line reps.

So, you're drafting a 30-year-old RB in a pass-heavy offense who’s already trending downward. That’s a volume trap.

9. Baker Mayfield (TB), ADP 92, QB7

Baker ranked 2nd in the NFL in passing TDs above expectation — trailing only Lamar Jackson. But he did that under Liam Coen, who’s now in Jacksonville. His new OC, Josh Grizzard, has zero play-calling experience and already said he plans to “win in the trenches.” The Bucs shifted to a -3.7% pass rate over expectation in the second half and emphasized the run once Bucky Irving emerged.

So, expecting another top-8 QB season with a downgraded OC and reduced pass volume is a losing bet.

8. James Cook (BUF), ADP 44, RB14

James Cook led all RBs in rush TD rate — scoring on a RIDICULOUS 7.7% of his carries. But 43% of his fantasy points came from touchdowns, his route rate dipped below 40%, and he’s now locked in a contract standoff. His role shrank late in the year, and the Bills’ offense became increasingly red zone-concentrated on Allen scrambles.

So, unless he sees a volume spike (which the data says he won’t), regression is coming FAST.

7. Mark Andrews (BAL), ADP 106, TE8

Andrews has long been a red zone weapon — but in 2024, it was his entire value.
He scored in 10 of his last 12 games despite averaging just 3.2 receptions per game and ranking outside the Top-15 in route rate. Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely out-snapped him in multiple games down the stretch and Baltimore's TE target share plummeted from 27% to just 18% post-Week 10.

So unless you're banking on unsustainable TDs again, TE8 is too high.

6. Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 25.5, WR15

Garrett Wilson is a true technician — but even that couldn’t save him in this offense.
He’s now catching passes from Justin Fields, who ranked DEAD LAST among starters in accurate throw rate TO WRs last year. The Jets’ new OC, Tanner Engstrand, comes from an XFL offense that ranked LAST in passing yards, and New York has the league’s most uncertain pass volume floor.

So this is a WR1 being drafted in a system that may not support a single consistent pass catcher. That’s a FADE.

5. DK Metcalf (PIT), ADP 44, WR24

Metcalf was used downfield at a career-high rate — 31.5% of his targets came 15+ yards downfield. But Arthur Smith’s system ranked Bottom-3 in pass rate over expectation in 2024, and Aaron Rodgers is now over 40 and doesn’t hit those deep passes like he used to.

So WR24 is paying for a deep-threat ceiling that no longer exists in this offense.

4. Dallas Goedert (PHI), ADP 137.5, TE13

Goedert was 2nd among all TEs in yards per route run… but it didn’t matter. He saw just 5.2 targets a game, lost red zone looks to AJ Brown and Smith, and ranked OUTSIDE the Top-15 in target share at the position. The Eagles now add Saquon Barkley and a new OC in Kevin Patullo, whose system is designed around power runs and RB-heavy passing.

So the upside’s still there… but the role isn’t. TE13 looks like a name-value mirage.

🤝 Pickett, Jeudy Developing “Strong Connection”

🐬 Waddle Working on Hand-Eye Coordination

🐻 Bears’ GM Gets 3-Year Extension

👀 CMC Looking Healthy and Explosive

❓ Aiyuk’s Week 1 Status Still up in the Air

🧨 Najee Harris Suffers Eye Injury on 4th of July

🚨 WR Robinson Pleads No Contest to Charges

🔁 NFLPA Reignites Collusion Battle Over Guarantees

💥 Kyren Williams Looks “More Explosive” at Rams Camp

⚡️ Marvin Mims Gaining Steam as Broncos WR2 Option

🐐 Bijan Says Falcons Rushing Goals Are ‘Outlandish’

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