3. Sam Darnold (SEA), ADP 173, QB27

Darnold was the QB8 in fantasy scoring last year and got paid starter money in Seattle.
But this offense is shifting HARD under new OC Klint Kubiak, who’s bringing in 2-TE sets, zone runs, and a philosophy built to slow the game down. Seattle ranked 5th in pass rate last season — but they’re now projected as one of the slowest teams by pace in 2025.

So if you’re drafting Darnold off last year’s numbers, you’re about to get blindsided.

2. Terry McLaurin (WAS), ADP 33, WR19

McLaurin was a touchdown machine last year — he scored 5.8 MORE TDs than expected, the highest over-expectation mark in the league. But he ranked 49th in target rate per route and now has to compete with Deebo Samuel for the same intermediate targets. Washington’s offense did shift pass-heavy down the stretch… but that came with a healthy Jayden Daniels and no target hogs in the system.

So this looks like a textbook case of regression meeting target squeeze. FADE at cost.

1. Malik Nabers (NYG), ADP 8, WR5 

Nabers opened last season with 34.9% of his team’s targets — the highest rate in the NFL. But the Giants had NO competition at WR, constant negative game script, and Nabers ran 71% of routes from the slot, where he faced soft coverage. OC Mike Kafka has historically rotated weapons and emphasized short-area spacing… not hyper-concentrated volume.

So WR5 assumes elite usage repeats — but all signs point the other direction.