🔥 Targets and Fades at Current ADP

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Average draft position can be tricky. Sometimes we get it right and other times we’re way off. Here are some of my targets and fades at current ADP at every fantasy position.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• One target and one fade for every position at ADP ✅ 

• Access to to 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Kit 🏆 

• The latest news from around the NFL 🏈

🔥Target: David Njoku (CLE), ADP 122, TE10

David Njoku isn’t just a sleeper — he might be the most underpriced high-volume tight end in the entire draft. He was third among all tight ends in targets per game (8.8), third in catches per game (6.8), and still managed a top-eight finish in yards per game — despite playing through ankle, knee, and hamstring injuries and catching passes from a carousel of backups.

But even in that chaos, Njoku delivered elite production when he had stable QB play. With Jameis Winston last year, he posted 10.3 targets per game and 5 touchdowns over a seven-game stretch — good for TE4 in PPR points per game. Go back a year, and he was TE2 with Joe Flacco in his five starts.

So if Flacco wins the job — and he’s the favorite — Njoku’s target share (already top-5 last year) could turn into league-winning volume. He’s a locked-in safety blanket for both Flacco and the Stefanski system, and the team added no major target competition at tight end. With top-5 TE usage baked in and 100+ targets in range, Njoku is one of the best arbitrage plays on the boardResearch.

🚫 Fade: Isaiah Likely, ADP 146, TE16

There’s no denying the talent. But if you’re betting on Isaiah Likely in redraft leagues, you’re betting on a Mark Andrews injury — and nothing more.

But even when Andrews was limited last year, Likely averaged just 3.0 catches per game after Week 1, hit TE1 numbers in only 4 of 14 games, and ran routes on just 60.6% of dropbacks. He was also completely touchdown-dependent — six scores masked an otherwise part-time role.

So while the Ravens are saying nice things — “All-Pro expectations,” “contract extension talks” — Likely is still stuck as the TE2. His production profile screams trap: good player, bad path. He’s a great best ball dart, but in lineup leagues, he’s just wishcasting for an injury.

🔥 Target: Kyler Murray, ADP 95, QB8

Kyler Murray has NEVER finished outside the top-12 in fantasy points per game. That includes last year, where he once again posted 18.1 PPG, powered by his consistent rushing floor — 4th in QB rush yards, 7th in QB rushing TDs.

But Murray admitted he wasn’t fully comfortable in 2024 — his knee wasn’t right, he had just two long designed runs all year, and his deep-ball connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. was nonexistent. Now? He says he’s ready to run more, confident again in his mobility, and poised to weaponize it at full strength.

So if the legs come back, Murray’s ceiling snaps back too. He posted five weekly top-5 fantasy finishes last season — averaging 26.2 PPG in those games — and now has a bulked-up Harrison plus Trey McBride as weapons. If you draft for floor with week-winning upside, Kyler’s still the cheat code no one’s talking about.

🚫 Fade: Jared Goff, ADP 117.5, QB14

Jared Goff had a great 2024 — 37 TDs, career highs across the board — and still didn’t matter in ceiling formats. He’s never averaged 20+ fantasy points per game in any season since 2016.

But it’s not just the rushing floor he lacks. His OC Ben Johnson — the architect of that efficiency — is gone. And now you’re asking Goff to maintain a 6.9% touchdown rate (3rd-best in the league) just to stay afloat.

So even if the weapons stay loaded, the margin is razor-thin. One regression step and Goff becomes unstartable in fantasy. He’s a floor QB3 — fine in best ball stacks, but a trap for anyone chasing another outlier year.

🔥Target: Rhamondre Stevenson, ADP 121.5, RB39 

Rhamondre Stevenson is boring at this point. But boring gets you points — and Stevenson is quietly locked into early-down and red zone work in New England’s backfield.

But the market has overreacted to the TreVeyon Henderson pick. Yes, Henderson flashed explosiveness in camp, but even the beat says “it’s still unknown” if he can be anything more than a third-down back. Stevenson is still the early-down hammer until further notice — and in Mike Vrabel’s offense, that role has touchdown upside.

So if you need a flex-floor RB who’s being drafted outside the top 35 — and you already have volatility at other spots — Stevenson is the pick. He won’t win your league, but he won’t lose it either. And if Henderson flops in between-the-tackles work, Stevenson’s workload could spike early.

🚫 Fade: Brian Robinson Jr., ADP 88, RB30 

Brian Robinson opened 2024 on fire — but his season unraveled just as fast. After six early touchdowns, he scored just twice over the final eight games, and his rushing success rate fell off a cliff. He failed to gain yardage on over 21% of his carries in that stretch.

But there’s also no receiving role here. And Washington clearly isn’t sold — they flirted with RBs all draft season before settling on a 7th-rounder. Now Robinson is entering a contract year, possibly on the trade block, and looking like a placeholder more than a priority.

So unless he comes out blazing again, he’s vulnerable to being phased out fast. No pass-game floor, fading rushing efficiency, and a coaching staff that hasn’t committed. That’s not a guy you take inside the top 90.

🧠 Etienne’s Role in Danger After Backfield Shakeup

🔥 Jayden Daniels Getting Full Command in DC

😳 Luther Burden Could Be a Rookie League-Winner

👀 J.K. Dobbins Gaining Steam as Broncos RB1

⚠️ Russell Wilson Leading Locker Room in New York

💥 Micah Parsons Contract Talks Hit a Wall

🧨 49ers CB Lenoir Arrested in LAPD Gun Incident

🚨 Justin Tucker Suspended 10 Games by the NFL

🛠️ Bucky Irving Trending Toward RB1 Workload

📈 Jets Rookie TE Mason Taylor Turning Heads Early

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