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📈 Ranking the Top-12 Draft Picks

📈 Ranking the Top-12 Draft Picks

Your home league's first round

Joe Holka
August 16, 2024

The Top-12 Draft Picks in Fantasy 2024

Welcome to the Fantasy Drop Army newsletter!

Today I’m taking another look at the first round of fantasy drafts. Unless your league mates totally screw it up, these are the top 12 picks in the game.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

2024’s Top-12 draft picks, in reverse order 🎯
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#12: Marvin Harrison Jr. (ATL), WR9

Cardinals fans have taken notice, and so have the NFL beat writers. It’s been written that he and Kyler Murray are already working well together. And, Harrison wowed the crowd in attendance for the joint practices in Indianapolis. It’s going to be fun to see if Harrison can bring his college credentials to the professional game this season. For now, he’s going at the very end of the first round according to Underdog ADP.

#11: Garrett Wilson (NYJ), WR8

Wilson led the Jets' passing game with 168 targets last season. His target share was 30% and his air yard share was a ridiculous 46%. But, he also had nearly 1,000 unrealized air yards and only found the end zone 3 times. So, it’s no wonder he’s still going toward the end of the first round with the expected bump in QB play.

#10: Puka Nacua (LAR), WR7

Puka Nacua set rookie records last season in yards (1,486) and receptions (105). His 29% target share was also impressive and he was 6th in yards per route run. Once Puka stepped in for Cooper Kupp early in the year, he never let go of his top-dog status. I’m slightly concerned that with Kupp’s healthy return Puka is being drafted at his ceiling. But, the upside is too good to pass up.

#9: A.J. Brown (PHI), WR6

Through Week 9 last season, A.J. Brown was dominant; he had 7 straight games as the WR13 or better. But, after that he faded down the stretch along with the rest of his offense. He was outscored by DeVonta Smith in that span, too. I don’t think that happens again this year. Brown is too dominant a weapon, and the Eagles have addressed the offensive issues. So, even if Smith gets his, Brown will be worth his first-round status.

#8: Breece Hall (NYJ), RB3

Breece racked up nearly 300 touches on a bad Jets’ offense. Still, he averaged 102 scrimmage yards per game after Week 5. He ended up as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. His elusiveness was on full display as the best in the league in evaded tackles and 3rd in yards created. Like Garrett Wilson, Breece figures to benefit from better QB play.

#7: Bijan Robinson (ATL), RB2

Bijan ended up with terrific receiving numbers last year. He ranked 6th in receptions and 4th in receiving yards. But, his opportunity share was 31st. So, with more rushing opportunities, he’ll be able to showcase that 11th-ranked juke rate and improve upon his 7th-most evaded tackles. It makes him an undoubted first rounder.

#6: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), WR5

Chase was the PPR WR11 last year, but the WR6 when Joe Burrow was healthy. In fact, he racked up 20 red zone targets, which is a nice recipe for a high fantasy ceiling. Yes, he's currently "holding in.” But at this point in the preseason a lot of players are trying to figure out their team situations. Once Chase is on the field he’ll be dominant again.

#5: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), WR4

Amon-Ra was the fantasy WR3 last season, and his offense remains unchanged. He was a top-5 player in target share, receptions, yards after the catch, and touchdowns. So, the list of fantasy WRs drafted before him in 2024 will be a LOT shorter than the one with the guys taken before him in the 2021 draft.

#4: Justin Jefferson (MIN), WR3

Jefferson already proved he was QB-proof when he went nuclear with Nick Mullens at the end of last year. J.J. McCarthy being injured for the year is a huge blow to Vikings fans, but they can take solace in the fact that Sam Darnold is still an upgrade. As long as Jets is healthy he’s going to produce.

#3: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), WR2

Lamb’s holdout looms, and Jerry Jones didn’t help the matter with his recent comments. But, Micah Parsons seems very confident that CeeDee will be in uniform in Week 1. For a shot at last season’s fantasy WR1, drafters are going to have to take that risk.

#2: Tyreek Hill (MIA), WR1

Leading the league in both target share and yards per route run is a lethal combination. And, despite Lamb’s killer season in 2023, Hill has been the more consistent fantasy receiver over the long haul. He’s got 3 WR2 finishes in the last 4 seasons. I think you’re making a safer pick when you go with Hill over Lamb this year.