10 OVERRATED Picks

Today I’m talking about 5 players who have switched teams this season, but have the outlooks that make them worth the draft capital… in two minutes or less.

10. Najee Harris (LAC), ADP 113.2, RB37

Harris is being drafted as RB37, but he’s not even on the field. He’s still sidelined with an eye injury from a firework accident. What’s worse, this backfield isn’t his. The Chargers spent a 1st-round pick on Omarion Hampton, who’s younger, faster, and a complete mismatch for Najee’s skillset. Add in that L.A. has the NFL’s 4th-toughest rushing schedule, and the only thing Harris is blocking is Hampton’s breakout. So even at RB37, he’s a wasted pick. He’s now a flex option with a trapdoor floor and no real ceiling.

9. Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 35.6, WR15

Wilson has cleared 1,000 yards every year in the NFL, but in fantasy points per game, he’s finished WR33, WR31, and WR21, and now gets a QB with the 3rd-worst inaccurate throw rate to WRs. Justin Fields has history with Wilson from Ohio State, sure. But that was five years ago. Wilson saw the 4th-most targets last year, but still ranked 80th in yards per target. So unless Fields suddenly becomes a timing-based distributor, you’re drafting a volume-dependent WR2 who’s never actually broken out.

8. James Conner (ARI), ADP 47.2, RB19

He led all RBs in juke rate AND evaded tackles. But he turns 30 this season, plays behind a volatile offense, and will get more competition from Trey Benson in his second year. Conner played a full 16 games last year and posted a career-high 1,508 yards, but the Cardinals already signaled shift: they went from a -6.0% PROE to +2.1% after their bye, leaning pass-heavy in five of their final seven games. So, Conner will start the year as the engine, but the wheels are getting old, and Arizona has the NFL’s 6th-easiest rushing schedule. That sounds good, but could open Benson’s door if Conner misses even a week. So while his RB19 price looks safe, the risk is hiding in plain sight. And he’s better suited for zero-RB builds, not locked lineups.

7. Baker Mayfield (TB), ADP 66, QB7

Mayfield threw 41 touchdowns last year, but that was 12 more than expected. That was the second-largest overperformance in the league behind Lamar Jackson. And now? His OC Liam Coen is gone, replaced by Josh Grizzard, a first-time play-caller whose intro press conference emphasized running the ball and “wearing defenses down.” Mayfield was QB4 in fantasy points per game in 2024, but also posted career-highs in rushing yards and accuracy, both screaming regression. So drafting him at QB7 assumes he repeats a career year in an offense that just got slower, safer, and way more run-heavy in the second half. That’s not upside, that’s a trap.

6. Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 62.8, TE6

Kelce saw 133 targets last year, but ranked 26th in catch rate, 21st in yards per route, and scored just 3 touchdowns, the fewest of his career. His yardage has dropped three years in a row, and going on age 36, he’s now playing in the NFL’s 2nd-toughest passing schedule. Even worse? With Rashee Rice on the field, Kelce’s target share dropped to 16.7%… that only jumped to 24.2% when Rice was out. So even if Rice is suspended and the volume returns, this isn’t the same Kelce that broke fantasy. This is the plug-and-play version you draft hoping for decent weekly matchups.

5. Jonnu Smith (PIT), ADP 114.8, TE12

Smith was the TE4 last year and averaged 67 yards per game over his final eight. But that was in a high-paced Miami offense with 8.4 targets per game. Now he goes to Pittsburgh—where Aaron Rodgers plays slow, the OC hates throwing, and he’ll share work with Pat Freiermuth. Plus, Smith saw just five double-digit games under Arthur Smith in 2023. So you're drafting a TE12 in a dead-last volume system with no upside. Let someone else chase last year’s ghost.

4. Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS), ADP 83.6, RB29

Brian Robinson had 42 red zone carries with 8 total TDs, not awesome. But also, he ranked 35th in yards per touch, 40th in juke rate, and got ZERO juice in the pass game—just 20 receptions all season (43rd most). Austin Ekeler takes all the passing downs, and 7th-round rookie Jacorey Croskey-Merritt is getting buzz and turning heads at camp. So if Robinson doesn’t score, he doesn’t matter, and he’s being drafted like a lock. He’s not.

Tap HERE for my Top-3 most Overrated by ADP

So that’s it. Avoid these guys unless your league mates let them drop down significantly.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.