3. Cooper Kupp (SEA), ADP 88.6, WR38

Kupp still commands volume—24.7% target share and 15.2 PPR points in full games. BUT he’s 32, playing with Sam Darnold, and ranked 81st in yards per target, 92nd in yards per catch, and 102nd in separation. Seattle wants to run more, use 2-TE sets, and play slow behind a defense-first head coach. So this is a WR4 with a WR2 name—and he’s not close to the player you remember.

2. D’Andre Swift (CHI), ADP 57.8, RB21

Swift had 305 opportunities last year and is the lead back for Ben Johnson, who helped him hit RB16 in Detroit. But he was dead last in success rate on zone runs and 28th in yards after contact. He’s a volume play, not a talent one. The Bears have the NFL’s 4th-toughest rushing schedule and just drafted Kyle Monangai, who fits their downhill style. And don’t forget about Roschon Johnson. So, you’re paying RB21 price for a guy who could lose touches early.

1. DK Metcalf (PIT), ADP 49.6, WR22

Metcalf is the WR1 in Pittsburgh with no real target competition. But he ranked 91st in true catch rate, 43rd in yards per route, and 31% of his targets came 20+ yards downfield, his highest ever. Now he’s in a run-first offense with the NFL’s 2nd-toughest passing schedule and Arthur Smith at OC, who’s never supported WR volume. Not to mention that Aaron Rodgers is not exactly aging like Tom Brady. So unless Rodgers force-feeds him deep balls every week, WR22 is a fantasy reach you’ll regret.