Busts by Category

Read on to find out the reasons why you shouldn’t draft these 5 players… in two minutes or less.

MOST INJURY PRONE: Chris Godwin (TB)

Godwin was on a WR2 overall pace through seven games last season, averaging an NFL-best 7.1 receptions and 82 yards per game with a 26% target share. But that ended with a brutal ankle dislocation, and he still hasn’t practiced in full since then. The return timeline is murky, and now he walks into a Tampa offense that shifted run-heavy after Week 11, averaging a -3.7% PROE down the stretch… and that was before promoting OC Josh Grizzard, who stressed being “physical” and leaning on the run. Add in first-round pick Emeka Egbuka joining Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan, and this is easily the deepest target competition of Godwin’s career.

So at WR34, you’re betting on a 29-year-old off major surgery to immediately reclaim elite volume in a more crowded, lower-pass environment. That’s a ceiling squeeze you can’t ignore.

MOST INFLATED ADP: Joe Burrow (CIN)

There’s no denying he’s the best pure passer in the league. He just put up career-bests across the board, leading the NFL in passing yards, air yards, TDs, completions, and ranking 1st in money throws. But he was 21st in rushing yards and 34th in rushing yards per game, giving him ZERO rushing floor if the TD rate or volume dips. The Bengals already face the NFL’s toughest passing schedule, and while the defense’s holes could push shootouts, it’s a dangerous bet to draft a pocket passer at QB4 without rushing insulation. Even his late-season “heater” (250+ passing yards and 3+ TDs in each of eight straight games) came in a stretch where efficiency had to be perfect to hold that pace.

So unless you’re ready to live and die on historic passing volume against top-tier pass defenses, QB4 in Round 3 is paying full freight for his absolute ceiling.

RISKIEST PICK: Stefon Diggs (NE)

Diggs was pacing for another 1,000-yard season in Houston before tearing his ACL in Week 8. But he’s now 32 in November, entering an offense that was 2nd-worst in explosive plays last year. Diggs’ 8.7 air yards per target in 2024 was his lowest since 2018, and his slot usage jumped to a career-high 46.2%, where he averaged just 1.33 yards per route, compared to 2.42 outside. Even if he dominates targets in a weak WR depth chart, there’s no guarantee he regains pre-injury explosiveness or efficiency.

So at WR37, the name value hides the reality: you’re buying an aging, post-ACL wideout tied to an offense that profiles bottom-tier in big plays. That’s a high-floor, low-ceiling trap.

DO NOT DRAFT: Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS)

Robinson logged 207 touches for 958 yards and 8 TDs in 14 games, with 42 red-zone carries and 7 TDs inside the 10. But he caught just 20 passes all season, ranked 35th in yards per touch, and 40th in juke rate. Washington went pass-heavy in their final eight games once Jayden Daniels warmed up, and Austin Ekeler owns passing downs while seventh-rounder Jacory Croskey-Merritt is making noise in camp. Robinson’s TDs also front-loaded: 6 in the first six games, just 2 in the final eight. And he failed to gain yardage on over 21% of his runs down the stretch.

So at RB29, you’re drafting a two-down grinder in a pass-shifting offense whose role could shrink fast if the rookie pushes or TD variance flips.

Tap HERE for the BIGGEST BUST of 2025

So make sure to avoid these players on draft day!

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.