5 WR Busts

Today’s list is 5 wide receivers that will bust. Read on to find out why… in two minutes or less.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), ADP 42, WR19

MHJ finished WR39 per game and ranked 107th in separation, with just 1.7 yards per route run… 61ST among qualifiers. Even after Arizona shifted to a pass-leaning look post-bye, his role tweak after Week 10 only got him to a 20.6% target share (33rd) and 55 yards per game (37th). But the Cardinals’ offense was already 23rd in red-zone TD rate over that span, and he saw only TWO end-zone targets in his final six games. So at current ADP, you’re paying for a ceiling season he hasn’t shown in usage, efficiency, or scoring profile. Until he shows it, Harrison is still a hope bet, not a lock for WR1 numbers.

Deebo Samuel (WAS), ADP 88.4, WR40

Deebo was WR46 in points per game last year. He was 53rd in yards per route run and 47th in target share. Not to mention he hasn’t cleared a full season healthy since 2021. His catch rate on passes 10+ yards downfield was just 42%, and his screen volume, once a cheat code, dipped sharply. But even with Washington projected to be a screen-heavy offense again (6th-most last year), they ranked just 28th in explosive pass rate over their final 8 games, and Deebo’s per-route trends have been headed the wrong way for two seasons. So at WR40, the name recognition is masking a profile that’s living on past efficiency spikes, not current form.

Chris Godwin (TB), ADP 80.6, WR34

From Weeks 1–7, Godwin was a volume machine: WR2 in fantasy points per game, a league-high 7.1 receptions per game, and top 10 in first-read target share. But then the injury happened. Tampa also replaced OC Dave Canales with Josh Grizzard, adding uncertainty to an offense that ranked 24th in pace and 25th in red-zone trips last year. So at WR34, you’re drafting a player with role crowding (rookie talent in the WR room), scheme change risk, and durability questions… all at a cost that assumes the pre-injury version still exists.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF), ADP 124.4, WR49

Before his ACL/MCL tear, Aiyuk was WR55 per game, with ZERO touchdowns and just one game over 50 receiving yards. His yards after catch per reception cratered from his peak seasons, and now the team doesn’t expect him for Week 1, with a PUP start likely. But this is still a Shanahan offense that ranked 28th in pass rate over expectation over their final 6 games and has historically been among the slowest-paced in neutral scripts, meaning volume will be hard to come by even when Aiyuk is back. So you’re committing midseason capital to a player recovering from a major knee injury in an offense that won’t rush him… which is dead roster weight until November.

Tap HERE for my #1 WR BUST

So on draft day, make sure to avoid these popular wide receivers… unless you want your league mates to win.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.