⚠️ 7 Risky Draft Picks

Welcome Back to Drop Army Fantasy!

Today I have a list of players who could end up hitting big… but also come with a fair level of risk. Read on to find out why I’m playing it safe on some of these big names.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• How to consider the risk on 7 big fantasy names ⚖️

• Access to to 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Kit 🏆 

• The latest news from around the NFL 🏈

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 30, WR17

Tyreek Hill still saw a MONSTER 40.5% of Miami’s end zone targets — 2nd-highest in the league. But his efficiency cratered. He averaged just 1.75 YARDS PER ROUTE and only 3 plays over 30 yards all year — down from 23 such plays across his first two Miami seasons. And now he’s coming off TWO offseason wrist surgeries, enters his age-31 season, and faces a Dolphins offense that ranks BOTTOM-5 in neutral pace over the last 15 games.

So this isn’t just a bounceback candidate — it’s a volume-dependent speed threat with injury flags and fading explosiveness. WR17 is too rich for what might already be the decline. Tyreek could obviously come out blazing and prove me wrong, but the red flags are there for his draft position.

Jonathan Taylor (IND), ADP 20.5, RB8

Jonathan Taylor DESTROYED fantasy playoffs last year — averaging 22.6 points over Weeks 15–18 and ranking TOP-3 in carries and red zone touches. But zoom out… and he scored 6 of his 7 total TDs in those final three games — meaning 85% of his fantasy output came in less than 20% of the season. He also ranked bottom-5 in missed tackles forced per carry and yards after contact, and was basically erased in the pass game — just 1.3 catches per game.

So unless he runs pure on touchdowns again, you're locking in an RB with a RB1 price and RB2 floor — especially dangerous with Anthony Richardson stealing red zone looks.

Chris Godwin (TB), ADP 62.5, WR34

Chris Godwin was leading the league in receptions per game (7.1) before a brutal ankle injury in Week 10 derailed everything. But the reality is worse: he finished the year with his lowest yards per route run since 2018, and 62.3% of his yardage came after the catch — suggesting a large amount of his volume was manufactured.

And now? He’s 28, coming off surgery, and enters an offense with a new OC, two elite rookie receivers in Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan, and still has to fight for targets behind Mike Evans.

So even if he’s healthy, he’s no longer guaranteed top-2 volume — and WR34 might be pricing in the version of Godwin that doesn’t exist anymore.

Mark Andrews (BAL), ADP 160.5, TE8

Mark Andrews was the #1 red zone tight end in fantasy — scoring in 10 of his last 12 games. But his route participation was just 65.8%, which ranked 15th among all tight ends. And he was one of only two Top-40 TEs where OVER 35% of their fantasy production came from TDs. Add in Isaiah Likely’s expanded role down the stretch — and Andrews’ yards per route falling for the third year in a row — and the cracks are real.

So yeah, he can spike… but TE8 isn’t the steal people think it is. Without touchdowns, you’re getting 4-for-45 and nothing else.

Joe Burrow (CIN), ADP 59, QB5

Joe Burrow has been a volume machine — finishing TOP-2 in pass attempts per game when healthy. But he offers ZERO rushing upside, ranked outside the Top 10 in ANY expected points per play metric, and the Bengals OL still sits middle of the pack in pass block win rate. Even worse, over the last 10 games the Bengals rank just 20th in pace and 18th in explosive play rate — and Burrow's only weekly ceiling comes through 3+ TD games.

So unless you're stacking Chase or Higgins, QB5 is a bet on pure volume, and the floor is real.

Deebo Samuel (WAS), ADP 68.5, WR39

Deebo Samuel forced a missed tackle on 27% of touches last year — that’s 2nd-best among all WRs with 50+ touches. But he’s STILL never played a full season, saw his receiving volume collapse after returning from illness, and now lands in a Washington offense that projects as bottom-5 in neutral pass rate. Jayden Daniels ranked near the top of college QBs in checkdown rate… but Kliff Kingsbury’s offense didn’t move Deebo around in early camp — meaning could be stuck in a stagnant outside-only role.

So yeah, the name’s exciting… but in fantasy? You’re getting YAC-dependent volatility in a SLOW offense with heavy target competition.

🔁 Steelers, Dolphins Pull Off Major Trade Shakeup

🔒 Raiders Won’t Trade Michael Mayer, per Insider

📉 McLaurin, Commanders Far Apart on Extension

📞 Dolphins in Talks with Teams for New Tight End

📦 Minkah Fitzpatrick Returns to Miami in Deal

✅ Titans CB Sneed Says He's 'Healthy and Ready'

👍 Mac Jones Gets Seal of Approval from Coach

🧠 Etienne’s Role in Danger After Backfield Shakeup

🔥 Jayden Daniels Getting Full Command in DC

😳 Luther Burden Could Be a Rookie League-Winner

Fantasy Drop Army is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.