11 Players You’ll HATE Yourself for Drafting

Welcome to the Fantasy Drop Army newsletter!

Ever been there? You hype up your breakout star or sleeper pick all summer, just to watch them crash and burn? Today, I'm ringing the alarm on 11 potential busts for 2024. Draft them at your own risk!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• 11 fantasy draft busts at ADP in 2024 🚨 

• How to access the 2024 Draft Guide for FREE 🏆

• The latest news from around the NFL 🏈

DK Metcalf (SEA), ADP 28.1, WR21

Will you get some incredible spike weeks from Metcalf? No question. There’s no doubting the freak athleticism and elite talent. But, he’s overvalued in fantasy football every single year.

The last time Metcalf even sniffed the top-10 in fantasy points per game was in 2020, and he’s not getting any more opportunities this season with the expected development of Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Not to mention that Metcalf and Tyler Lockett always have closer numbers than most people would like to admit. So, find better values in the 3rd.

Rachaad White (TB), ADP 66.8, RB15

Rachaad White's raw numbers might look good on the surface, but don't let them fool you—they're built on sheer volume, not efficiency. Despite ranking 2nd in total carries, he only finished 13th in rushing yards. And his true yards per carry? A mediocre 3.5, placing him 57th. His juke rate was 23rd and breakaway run rate 45th.

Fast forward to 2024, and snagging that same volume won't be a walk in the park. Tampa's rookie 4th rounder, Bucky Irving, has the edge over White in elusiveness metrics. I'm skeptical about White continuing to deliver at an RB1 level. The draft capital is just too steep. Proceed with caution.

Sam LaPorta (DET), ADP 36.5, TE1

Don’t get it twisted. I think LaPorta is a FORCE for the Detroit passing game. I just don’t feel like his TE1 price tag is justified. He was the top-scoring fantasy TE last season. But, he ranked 6th in target share, 6th in air yards share, 4th in red zone targets and 6th in yards per route run. All that is very strong, but not worthy of being the first at his position off the draft board.

It was the 10 touchdowns that inflated his overall scoring numbers and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to match that number in 2024. If you want to spend for a top TE you can do it a few rounds later on guys like Mark Andrews or Dalton Kincaid.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 19.6, WR14

When the Dolphins get it going, Waddle is a lot of fun. The problem is that Tua Tagovailoa can’t sustain 2 fantasy WR1s over the course of the season. We’ve seen it now for 3 years running.

As efficient as Waddle’s numbers can be (8th in yards per route run and 12th in yards after the catch), he only finished as the WR34 in PPR. He just can’t take the volume away from Tyreek Hill. So, you’re better off letting someone else take him too early and finding a better value with your 2nd rounder.

Deshaun Watson (CLE), ADP 154, QB20

We all want to see Deshaun Watson recapture that Houston magic. But, in the past two years with Cleveland, he's only played 12 games, averaging a mere 15.1 fantasy points per game. That performance landed him at QB27.

In fact, Watson’s passing numbers look even worse. He was 39th in accuracy rating when he was on the field last season, and his passer rating in the last 2 seasons combined is a mere 81.7. So, don't stress about drafting Watson. Consider him as a fill-in for your QB's bye week instead.

Alvin Kamara (NO), ADP 73.8, RB18

This one is especially true if you’re playing in a non-PPR scoring league. Kamara made his bones in the passing game last year, finishing as the PPR RB3 in points per game. In standard leagues his ranking was 14th, and could get even worse this season.

Kamara isn’t exactly durable at this stage of his career, and the Saints’ offensive line isn’t good. That means Kamara’s already low 3.8 true yards per carry could suffer further. Add that to an improved downfield passing game, and a crowd of players fighting for red zone work, and it looks like Kamara’s best days are behind him.

Jonnu Smith (MIA), ADP 185.2, TE23

The hype around Jonnu Smith in Miami baffles me. Yes, he has the skills and has shown flashes of fantasy brilliance. But let's face it, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins didn't exactly prioritize their tight ends last season. Durham Smyth, their top player at the position, ranked 31st in target share. In 2022, Mike Gesicki was 30th in both target and air yard share. Notice a trend?

Sure, Jonnu was 8th in yards per reception, 7th in yards after the catch, and 12th in yards per route run. There's efficiency there, no doubt. But where's the volume going to come from? I'm not seeing it.

Josh Jacobs (GB), ADP 52.3, RB12

Josh Jacobs lands squarely in the running back dead zone for me. He's been a solid fantasy back for years, and a change of scenery can sometimes revive a player's fortunes. Green Bay isn't a bad spot, with an ascending team and a well-compensated quarterback.

However, Jacobs seems to have lost a step. Last season, he had his lowest rushing total and ranked 58th in fantasy points per opportunity. My advice? Secure your top RB early and look for better value in later rounds for your RB2.

Anthony Richardson (IND), ADP 56.5, QB5

Don't get me wrong, Anthony Richardson showed promise as a rookie. Averaging 34 rushing yards per game, he would have ranked 5th for the season. He should continue to improve this year. But why are we drafting him as the QB5 after just 4 professional games?

Quarterbacks are already overvalued in fantasy football, and it's risky enough using a high draft pick on established stars like Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. This pick feels too shaky, too soon. There's just too much that could go wrong.

Austin Ekeler (WAS), ADP 130.6, RB41

Remember the thrill of owning Austin Ekeler in 2021 and 2022? He was a fantasy dynamo, racking up 38 touchdowns and dominating the running back leaderboards.

But last year, Ekeler started showing signs of wear and tear as a lead back. His efficiency took a nosedive, and his touchdown count plummeted to just 6. Now, he's set to share the Washington backfield with the younger, more durable Brian Robinson. While he’s an upgrade over Antonio Gibson, it’s hard to gauge how much gas Ekeler has left in the tank. I'd steer clear in drafts and look for more reliable options.

David Njoku (CLE), ADP 100.8, TE11

David Njoku shined bright in 2023, breaking into the Top-5 TEs with his impressive athleticism. He posted career highs across the board with 81 receptions, 882 yards, and 6 touchdowns.

However, this surge in production didn't coincide with Deshaun Watson's games. In those matchups, Njoku managed just two Top-12 finishes and had three games outside the top-20. With Joe Flacco no longer in Cleveland, Njoku's outlook isn't as rosy. Expect a step back in 2024.

☁️ Aiyuk’s Destination Still Cloudy

🪑 Cardinals to Bench Murray for Preseason

😱 McCaffrey Out for Preseason with Calf Strain

✍️ Ravens Sign WR Russell Gage

🐏 Rams Add OT Conor McDermott

🚫 Bryce Young to Sit Out First Preseason Game

🔥 Broncos Name Stidham Starting QB for Preseason Opener

🦅 Eagles' Gardner-Johnson to Miss Time with Shoulder Injury

🚨 Vikings Start Sam Darnold in Preseason Opener

🏈 Commanders' Jayden Daniels to Start Preseason Opener

😩 Lions' Emmanuel Moseley Out Indefinitely with Torn Pectoral

That was close! Good thing your team won’t be burdened by these busts, and you won’t have to hear it from your league mates.

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