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Because if you are willing to get more contrarian & take some calculated risks...

This will help you.

4 reasons Single Entry and 3-Max tournaments are (still) super exploitable:

1. Those with skin in the game can be overly fearful and pessimistic.

• Focus more on what could go "right"

• NOT what could go "wrong"

If you can wrap your head around this ONE THING, you're already halfway home ⤵️

In Single Entry & 3-max tournaments, you should be playing even "riskier."

But why...?

2. Ownership condenses on the most popular plays (aka the chalk).

With fewer entries per player, it's only natural for casuals to play safer.

This is great news.

Because a large portion of the field is submitting -EV lineups...

And they don't even realize it.

It's not good enough to make one small tweak off an optimal lineup anymore.

Personally...

I will gladly sacrifice a few projected points for one important thing:

A LOT more leverage on the field.

You want to position yourself with teams that can funnel to the top quickly...

Not just a 2v2 off of popular builds.

It's actually very easy to do.

It just may not feel comfortable at first.

3. Leverage spots are easier to project.

Ownership projections are being built around large-field GPPs...

But this is still crucial context for small-field Single Entry & 3-Max tournaments.

This discussion reminds me of a very specific spot about two years ago...

It was the week @2Hats1Mike won the (single-entry) Thunderdome for $50,000.

Something he tends to do frequently...

It's annoying how frequently, actually.

But where was the leverage?

• Kittle was massively owned (yet Kelce came in at just 3.3%)

• The Jets value WRs were massively owned (yet the Chiefs go under-owned)

Why?

Blowout risk... it was a common narrative all week long.

So Leone decided to take advantage of this at the highest stakes.

There was another crucial takeaway here.

(especially for small-field SE/3max GPPs)

The KC double-stack's ceiling, at low ownership, was far more important than any potential blowout risk.

A shift in mindset to this way of thinking has been huge for my DFS evolution.

Note:

The goal isn't to just find guys who will be low-owned.

There is no gold star awarded for a 1% player in GPPs.

You're looking for lineup combinations, without high combined ownership, that still project well.

4. It's easy to capture leverage through unique stacks and correlation.

The exact amount of leverage you can create has a lot to do with field size.

But going off the board with a stack is a great way to increase leverage and correlation in SE/3max especially.

Don't forget to leave yourself flexibility in late-swap by the way...

The KC/NYJ blowout risk is a great example...

Mostly because someone had to score those touchdowns.

Right?

Admittedly, you're hoping to run pure that those TDs come through the air.

But in GPPs, we should be more focused on the upside anyway.

Again:

"Focus more on what could go right."

Unique stacks in these GPPs can help you accomplish a few important things:

• 2 players sub 15% ownership

• (ideally) 1 player sub 5%

• sometimes knock out the TE slot

Also, you're free to get chalkier at RB without sacrificing a unique build.

Your RB pool can be smaller.

Don't be afraid to get off the wall with your stacks.

Cheap stacks can help you get there too.

The idea is to provide yourself more outs.

So you can capitalize on the field with similar lineups and roster construction.

Tl;dr

1. People are overly pessimistic.

2. Ownership condenses on chalk.

3. Leverage is easier to project.

4. Leverage through unique stacks.

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-Joe