League-Losing WRs

Forget about the name value. These WRs are landmines that could cost you big in your draft … in two minutes or less.

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 31.5, WR13

The Cheetah just posted his worst fantasy season since 2016, averaging 12.8 points per game (29th among WRs). But his per-route efficiency totally collapsed: he finished 38th in yards per route run and 28th in separation. Those were his worst ranks since becoming a starter. His deep-ball dominance was also gone, partly as a result of Tua’s limitations. He had just 3 catches of 30+ yards, compared to 23 in his first two years in Miami. So even though he still earned a 26.5% target share and led the team with 40.5% of end zone targets, this offense is shifting underneath, and his 31-year-old legs aren’t pulling away like they used to. If you take him in Round 3, you’re betting against Father Time, a wrist surgery, an oblique strain, and a declining scheme. That’s not a discount, that’s a disaster.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 39, WR16

Wilson has cleared 1,000 yards all 3 years and just got paid $130 million. But he’s finished WR33, WR31, and WR21 in points per game, despite ranking Top-10 in target share every season. Now he’s paired with Justin Fields, whose 18.2% inaccurate throw rate to WRs is the 3rd-worst in the NFL. Only Aidan O’Connell and Caleb Williams were worse. So even if Wilson earns another 100+ catches, he’s still capped by a QB who runs instead of reads and limits pass volume by design. On the plus side, the Jets rank 5th-easiest in passing schedule, but they don’t trust Fields to throw. You’re drafting elite usage with broken upside, and hoping Fields becomes something he’s never been. That’s a volume trap.

DK Metcalf (PIT), ADP 49.5, WR21

Metcalf had a career-high 31.5% deep target rate, but finished 91st in true catch rate and 43rd in yards per route run. But now he’s trapped in Arthur Smith’s run-heavy system, which hasn't supported a single top-20 WR per game since A.J. Brown. Smith’s scheme buried Drake London and George Pickens in the past two years (both averaged just 7 targets per game in the exact same role Metcalf inherits). And Pittsburgh has the 2nd-toughest rushing schedule in the NFL. That means Smith may stubbornly try to establish the run even when it’s failing. So even with Rodgers under center, who might throw more, you’re still counting on elite efficiency from a player who ranks 78th in separation and 89th in route win rate. That’s not upside. That’s a WR3 going way too early.

Jayden Reed (GB), ADP 118.2, WR48 

Reed led all WRs in fantasy points per target AND QB rating per target, and ranked 15th in yards per route run. The problem? He only ran routes on 69.3% of dropbacks, never cracked the Top 40 in target share, and is still buried in a 3-WR rotation with a new Round 1 rookie (Matthew Golden) added to the mix. Now he’s dealing with a foot sprain that has him in a boot and puts his Week 1 status in serious doubt. So even if the efficiency stays elite, the role, health, and route volume just won’t support usable weekly output. He was WR38 last year, but 18% of his total points came in Week 1 alone. You’re not drafting a breakout. You’re drafting a bench clog. That’s a wide receiver with spike weeks and zero floor.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), ADP 40.8, WR18

Harrison was hyped as the next superstar coming out of college. He drew a 25.2% target share and an insane 46.2% of Arizona’s end zone targets. But even after the Cardinals shifted him to more horizontal routes late in the year, his efficiency got WORSE. He finished the season 39th in fantasy points per game and 5th in unrealized air yards. Kyler Murray’s deep ball has been “in the toilet for three seasons,” and the offense continues to misuse him outside the numbers. So unless he suddenly becomes an elite YAC threat (something he's never shown), you’re betting on a broken scheme and a quarterback who hasn’t hit a deep WR in years. And that’s why I won’t touch MHJ.

So avoid these WRs to minimize your risk… As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe