💥 Wild Card Weekend Continues

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The Bills are double-digit favorites in this one, which is no surprise. They ended the season hot to grab the AFC’s 2-seed, and they get a Steelers’ team largely considered the worst in the playoffs. Fantasy Life’s game hub shows a few advantages when Buffalo has the football.

Since the expansion of the NFL playoffs, no 7-seed has upset a 2-seed. It will ultimately be these players who determine if that trend continues.

QB: Josh Allen (BUF) - $8,000

The Steelers’ defense really took a hit losing T.J. Watt. Take a look at their defensive splits with and without pressure:

• QB rating against: 59.1 vs. 96.2

• Completion rate: 45.8% vs. 67.4%

• Yards per pass attempt: 6.2 vs. 7.7

It’s night and day. One thing you can count on with Allen is that he’s going to rush the football. The Bills have really leaned on him, especially in short yardage, so that upside is there Monday night.

RB: James Cook (BUF) - $6,600

Cook has been ice cold the last few weeks, gaining just 70, 44, and 52 total yards, so the margin of error is fairly slim for him here. He’s relying on efficiency. It doesn’t help that he doesn’t catch many passes (6 over the last 4 weeks). Tread lightly.

WR: Stefon Diggs (BUF) - $7,400

We finally saw some signs of life from Diggs in Week 18, when he had his best game since Week 6. That train could keep rolling, and you’ll get a huge advantage because his ownership numbers are going to be low. Just be mindful of the weather and how this might play out.

QB: Mason Rudolph (PIT) - $5,300

Rudolph lives and dies by long TD passes and it does NOT make him a sustainable or smart DFS play, even though he’s cheap. In the last 2 weeks he had 11.5 and 8 fantasy points. It’s just not enough in a slate where we have big-time QB plays all over.

RB: Najee Harris (PIT) - $5,400

If the Steelers have an upset in them, Najee is probably the key. He’s been better this year than a lot of people think.

Consider this: when the Steelers are ahead in games they are 31st in dropback rate. That would be GREAT for Najee. The question is whether or not they can actually get a lead. If not, the script will probably favor Jaylen Warren a bit more, as he’s involved in the passing game.

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Dallas has dominated teams at home this season, going undefeated and winning 6 of those 8 games by 20+ points. Jordan Love and the Packers are playing terrific football, but they are the 7th seed and haven’t really had to face many great QBs this year. The game hub from Fantasy Life seems to favor Dallas in the passing game, which is no surprise.

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL) - $9,000

Lamb leads the NFL in a LOT of important statistical categories for WRs. The monster receiver has scored 11 TDs since coming out of the Week 8 bye. AND he crushes it against the Packers’ favorite zone coverages.

Lamb is going to get his numbers at home this weekend.

RB: Tony Pollard (DAL) - $6,100

The Pollard experience hasn’t been great for fantasy football, but there’s a case to be made for his spot this weekend. When the Cowboys are at home he averages 19.5 touches per game. They’re 7-point favorites. The Packers have had some trouble with talented runners this season.

I think Pollard could potentially go for over 100 yards and score a TD.

TE: Jake Ferguson (DAL) - $4,700

I mention Ferguson only to say there aren’t many good signals for him in this matchup. The Packers play a lot of cover-3, against which Ferguson is only targeted on 13% of his routes with less than a yard per route run.

The counterargument is that Green Bay has been beat up by some TEs this year. Think about these things before pulling the trigger.

RB: Aaron Jones (GB) - $6,300

As Jones finally got healthy, he had some very strong performances against good run defenses. He gained the most yards the Bears allowed all year and had the most against the Vikings since Week 2.

The problem is that we haven’t seen a lot of usage in the passing game, and the game script probably isn’t going to be ideal for a lot of rushing volume.

WR: Jayden Reed (GB) - $5,700

If there’s been one constant on the Green Bay offense this year, Reed is it. Against man coverage, he’s targeted on 29.6% of his routes with nearly 2 yards per route run and 4 TDs. He also plays over 70% of his plays from the slot where guys have found success against Dallas this season.

Christian Watson has been back to limited practices and will probably play, but Reed is the surest bet for the Pack.

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In this one we’ve got a couple of defenses who haven’t been great, but the QBs are the story here. Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit where he ran the offense for 12 seasons, and he’s trying to knock off the first Lions’ division winner in ages. Jared Goff indoors and at home is always a threat to go off, too. Check out Fantasy Life’s game hub here:

QB: Jared Goff (DET) - $6,200

We know about his drastic home/away and indoor/outdoor splits, but the pass rush is just as relevant here. He has 24 TDs when he isn’t pressured (3rd in the NFL), and 21 TDs throwing against zone, which is 10 more than the 2nd guy. The Rams really don’t send a lot of pressure and they run a LOT of zone looks, boosting Goff.

It’s also worth mentioning that Sam LaPorta’s status may completely swing this one for the offense. If he can’t go, it’s one less option and a little bit less explosion for Detroit.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) - $8,000

Sun God looks to benefit individually if LaPorta doesn’t play, but either way he’s got a high floor and ceiling.

He had 100 yards or a TD in all but 2 games this season, so he was right to feel salty about his all-star snub. When he plays in Detroit, he’s averaging 106 yards per game, and he has the most receiving yards against cover-3, which the Rams like to run. Business as usual for our guy Sunday.

RBs: David Montgomery - $6,200/Jahmyr Gibbs - $6,500 (DET)

The Lions have the second-most productive backfield in the NFL behind the Dolphins, and the Rams are just sort of meh against the position:

• 18th in success rate

• 16th in yards per carry allowed

When the Lions traded T.J. Hockenson, their target share to RBs jumped from around 17% to 24%. It’s gone back down with emergence of LaPorta, so if he’s not in this game it’s another factor to look at, especially for Gibbs.

QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR) - $6,500

It’s no secret that the Lions are a pass funnel. Over the last 9 games, they’ve allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt (last), and have been 30th in passing TDs allowed. They’ve allowed 22.6 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.

Not only has Stafford been on an absolute heater, but when he’s got all his guys healthy the Rams are among the NFL’s best offenses, averaging 6.8 yards per play. Add the revenge factor and Stafford is a nice click.

RB: Kyren Williams (LAR) - $7,300

The Lions allow a stout 9.2 rushing points per game, but Kyren knows how to get it done against good run defenses. He’s gone over 100 yards twice when facing run defenses ranked in the top 10. Don’t automatically avoid him because of the matchup.

WR: Demarcus Robinson (LAR) - $3,600

He’ll be the highest owned guy of the weekend in DFS. The Rams run so much 11-personnel that Robinson gets a lot more chances than most of the other 3rd WRs around the league.

He’s gotten 10 targets in 2 of the last 5 games. He has more end zone targets in that span than Cooper Kupp on the season. Combine that with the matchup and salary and it makes sense why so many people are picking him.

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Both teams are struggling at the moment. With the Eagles it’s injuries and a concerning performance down the stretch. The Bucs have had difficulty scoring. As a result, this one’s tough to predict.

There have been some positive injury reports in the last couple of days regarding Jalen Hurts and DeVonta Smith, but there’s a lot more to wade through when it comes to DFS.

QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI) - $7,700

The biggest factor for Hurts is the finger injury. The latest word is that it’s been “progressing” and that Hurts is ready to start throwing again, but we may not know for sure until we see him take the field.

This could be a tough one for Jalen, with or without the Tush Push.

TE: Dallas Goedert (PHI) - $4,800

Goedert makes sense since A.J. Brown has been downgraded to out. The targets should funnel to him, so it might be worth looking his way at the position.

RB: Rachaad White (TB) - $6,900

The Eagles started the season as a really strong run defense, but have really tailed off in recent weeks. Since their bye week, they’re allowing 145 yards per game to opposing RBs. It’s not good.

As always, White is a volume play if not an efficient one. The Bucs fed him at bell-cow rates this year and he ended the year as PPR RB4.

WR: Mike Evans (TB) - $6,900

The Eagles have been vulnerable on the outside to WRs, and Evans continues to do what he does every year. Just understand that the Buccaneers' biggest obstacle is sometimes themselves. They were 30th in the NFL in rates of their drives to reach 3rd down. They’re also 20th in the NFL in dropback rate on early downs despite being dead last in rushing yards per play on such downs. Plus, Baker is banged up and may not be up to his optimal level.

Still, if the Bucs are going to get it done through the air, it’s most likely going to be through Evans or Chris Godwin.

🥶 Chiefs Host Dolphins in Frigid Temperatures

👍 Old vs. Young as Stroud’s Texans Host Flacco’s Browns

❄️ Steelers at Bills Moved to Monday Afternoon

🏴‍☠️ Raiders Have Leading Candidate for HC Job

🦅 WR Brown Ruled Out for Eagles on Monday 

🧀 Packers’ RB Dillon Doubtful to Play

✅ Steelers’ Safety Fitzpatrick to Play vs. Bills

🚨 LaPorta Officially Questionable for Game

🏈 Carroll Claims Football People Not Part of Coach Call

🔥 Ex-LB Mayo to Lead Patriots After Belichick

After this weekend we will have our NFL top 8. We’re one step closer to glory.

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