🥇 Who's Going to the Conference Championship?

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It’s one of the best NFL weekends of the year. Let’s go!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Lions-Bucs matchups to watch 👀 

• Who will impact Chiefs-Bills 🏈 

• The latest NFL news and notes 🔥 

• If you want to see the video version of this breakdown… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

The Lions are favored by 6.5 at home after breaking their 3-decade playoff drought last weekend. But we shouldn’t count out the Bucs. They’re spunkier than many people give them credit for even though they only had to face the corpse of the Eagles to get here. Fantasy Life’s game hub tends to show some big offensive advantages for the Lions.

QB: Jared Goff (DET) - $6,300

Seeing Goff exercise those playoff demons and be totally embraced by the city of Detroit was incredibly cool. He out-dueled Matthew Stafford to help to level out the score of that QB swap.

A lot is made about the home-road and indoor-outdoor splits for Goff, but the biggest factor in his performance is the defensive pass rush. Last weekend when the Rams didn’t get pressure, he was 19-of-19 passing with the TD to Sam LaPorta. When they go home, he was just 3-of-8.

We know the Bucs are a high-blitzing team, and they’ll try to get there on Goff. The big question is whether they can get there and disrupt that timing. It’s probably the biggest key to the game when the Lions have the ball.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) - $8,200

The guy gets 8 catches for 100 yards most games. The only challenge here is affording him in your lineup. There’s not much else to be said.

The other Lions’ receivers are in play this week because they’re more affordable. Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams are both candidates to pop off on the Buccaneers’ problematic pass defense. They’re super chalky plays at their price points.

The Lions RBs

If we could just play “Lions backfield” as a DFS player, he’d be INCREDIBLE. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are crushing it on the ground. The problem is that they cannibalize each other, making it really difficult to predict whether one will be the play over the other.

It’s also wise to consider that the Bucs have been pretty good against opposing RBs, and weaker against the pass. It’s tough sledding here.

WR: Mike Evans (TB) - $7,200

I always feel like it’s good to roll with Evans the week after he drops a big play. Other than that, this is just a very strong matchup play as a big-play, outside WR.

Yes, Evans has been out-targeted by Chris Godwin recently, but I think he’ll still be fine against the Lions. Those guys are last in the league in allowing pass plays of 20+ yards.

QB: Baker Mayfield (TB) - $6,000

Baker is in play because of the way the Lions get totally hammered in the passing game. The numbers:

• 31st in passing yards per game

• 32nd in passing yards per play (8.9)

• 29th in touchdown rate allowed (5.3%)

Plus they allow 21.9 passing fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The way Baker was throwing lasers last week, he could be ready to do it again.

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

This game needs no introduction. We have Mahomes vs. Allen in the battle for the right to go to the AFC Championship game. These teams have given us some memories over the last few seasons, and I’m hoping for more.

QB: Josh Allen (BUF) - $8,000

Some of Josh Allen’s best rushing games have come against Kansas City in the playoffs. I have a feeling that continues here. The plays in the passing game will come, but the real upside will come on the ground.

The amount of pressure the Chiefs will be able to bring home should go a long way in determining Allen’s success. Last matchup, his numbers were not quite as efficient in the face of pressure.

Josh Allen is always a threat to have a huge fantasy game.

WR: Stefon Diggs (BUF) - $7,000

The Chiefs have absolutely erased their opponents’ WR1s this season. The most a top guy has gained against them in 73 yards. That makes this a really tough spot for Diggs.

In the last matchup Diggs only gained 24 yards despite earning 11 targets. I’m not saying you can’t play him here, it’s just wise to be aware of the history.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (KC) - $6,800

The Bills’ defensive middle is slightly banged up, which could be a big boost for Mahomes. Throwing against Miami in the middle of the field last weekend, he was 17-of-23.

The Bills had some success getting pressure on Mahomes when the teams met earlier in the season. If they can do it again they can slow down the Chiefs’ attack.

RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC) - $6,400

In the games without Jerick McKinnon, Pacheco has solidified a stranglehold on the Chiefs’ backfield. He’s got over 20 touches in each of those games. The Bills struggle to defend RBs in the passing game, so I’m taking a good look at the over for Pacheco’s receiving props.

🔥 Packers vs. 49ers Comes Down to the Wire

🏈 Lamar Jackson Outstanding as Ravens Dispatch Texans

🎙 Falcons Interviewing Another Legendary Coach

🤠 Cowboys’ McCarthy Not Expecting Extension

✍️ Raiders Sign Pierce as Head Coach

🐏 Vote of Confidence Secured for Rams’ Morris 

💵 Lions’ Betting Line Largest in Franchise History 

🩼 Deebo Samuel Leaves Game with Shoulder

🚫 Kadarius Toney Ruled Out For Sunday

Enjoy the games and I’ll see you for the Conference Championships!

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