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šØ Week 6's Best Matchups and Plays
Considerations for fantasy and DFS
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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.
Itās the end of the work week and we are fully locked and loaded for NFL Week 6 action! Fire up those lineups.
Today in 5 minutes or less, youāll learn:
MUST start players for fantasy football š
Considerations for DraftKings lineups š°
Sneaky smart pivots for tournament plays š¤
The NFLās latest player news and notes ā
Each week this NFL season, Iāll be chatting with Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) from Sharp Football Analysis about some of the best matchups and DFS plays in the league.
Check out my YouTube channel for the videos.
QB: Trevor Lawrence (JAX)
Lawrence is playing his best ball of the season coming out of London, with 300 yards and a TD. It could have been more if the Jags didnāt score on the ground twice.
He has three straight QB1 scoring weeks in his rivalry with the Colts. In those games he has 5 TDs to just 1 INT, and this time around shouldnāt be much different.
They tend to sit back in more passive looks:
28th in blitz rate
25th in pressure rate
Lowest percentage of man coverage in the NFL
On top of that, they allow QBs to complete 68.5% of their pass attempts, and 11.2 yards per completion.
Expect Lawrence to stay hot, especially as heās due for some positive TD regression.
WR: Puka Nacua (LAR)
Even with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup, itās apparent that Matthew Stafford trusts Nacua and he should continue to see a healthy dose of targets in this one. He had 11 targets last week across from Kupp.
The matchup against the Cardinals is favorable too. They just donāt do a lot of blitzing or put much pressure on the QB. When the Rams faced the Eaglesā zone looks, Puka was targeted on 32% of his routes vs. 18.8% vs. man.
On the season, the only WR whoās been targeted on a higher rate vs. zone defense is Tyreek Hill.
RB: Raheem Mostert (MIA)
With DeāVon Achane out for at least 4 weeks, Mostert is in a fantastic spot vs. Carolina. Before Achane got going, Mostert was getting over 70% of the backfield touches. I expect it to go back to that type of share.
Carolina has been poor, but particularly against the run:
27th in rushing yards allowed
28th in yards per carry against
29th in yards per carry allowed (5.2)
31st in rushing fantasy points allowed to RBs (22.4)
Check out how poor the Panthers are against RBs, courtesy of the Defense vs. Position tool from Fantasy Life:
WR: Drake London (ATL)
London disappointed us back in Week 1, but since that time heās gotten 23% of his teamās targets.
And while Atlanta carved out a reputation as a huge running team back in ā22, itās shifted a little bit in the other direction. They have 33 more team drop backs than they did at this point last year.
This one is more about the matchup though. Washington has allowed a league-high 20% of completed passes to go for 20 or more yards, and a league-high 6 receiving TDs of more than 20 yards downfield.
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Every single week this season, Iāll post videos of my chats with Jake Ciely (@allinkid) of The Athletic. We discuss the top DraftKings plays that youād be silly not to lock into your lineup.
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QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) - $7,600
Yes, the QBs in this spot are the same as Week 5. But they have great matchups, so why not?
Tuaās been great all season, but even better at home, which is just one reason I like him here this week. You have the potential for 30+ points in any matchup. But Carolina offers a great one.
Theyāre 28th in points allowed per game and 24th in pressure rate. All signs point to another big Tua game.
QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR) - $6,100
If you want a cheaper option, youād be hard pressed to do better than Stafford. Clearly heās been healthy this season when maybe he wasnāt back in ā22, and the Rams are just passing vs. pretty much everyone.
They have one of the highest rates of passing plays in the league, and that should absolutely continue against Arizona, who have really allowed most of their opponents to rack up fantasy points. Even Daniel Jones had his best game of the year against these guys.
As a bonus, Staffordās price makes it possible to get a nice stack going with Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp.
RB: D'Andre Swift (PHI) - $6,100
Yes, Kenneth Gainwell played the role of vulture last week, which was frustrating, but you know the Eagles are going to spell Swift to keep him fresh, and itās going to fall that way some weeks. We donāt want this guy touching the ball 30 times per game and getting injured.
Anyway, the matchup with the Jets is a lot better than popular perception. With Swiftās involvement in the passing game the potential is there to go off.
I view him as a guy with a similar ceiling to Austin Ekeler, but at a steep discount. Go for it.
RB: Alvin Kamara (NO) - $6,800
Houston doesnāt represent the best matchup for his ground game, but because of what Kamara brings to the passing game, we like him a lot this week.
There are two concerns here. We arenāt totally sure that the Texans will push the pace in this one, and Kamara doesnāt get 100% of the goal line work. But, if the Saints are ahead and he gets some grind carries at the end, itās probably because of the success heās already had.
For that reason, heās a great pick this week.
WR: D.J. Moore (CHI) - $6,500
After last week, we would have expected him to be more expensive, but the price comes with the risk of Justin Fields turning back into a pumpkin, or Bearsā coaches going run-heavy on the game plan. If Fields has a low number of attempts, then maybe the volume doesnāt get there.
However, if we look at the matchup with the Vikings, we know that everyone has decided they can just pass on these guys all day. Itās a good sign for Moore in this one.
Moore is in good company according to Fantasy Lifeās air yards tool. Heās now 5th in total receiving yards and has a healthy target share and RACR metric as well.
TE: Sam LaPorta (DET) - $5,600
Until LaPortaās price goes over $6,000, I like slotting him in here.
The landscape at the TE position is interesting. You have Travis Kelce at the top, and then you have guys like Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, and LaPorta, who is the most reasonably priced option of the three.
The one concern here is that the Lions are outdoors, which is not Jared Goffās preferred setting, but even if the Sun God is back on the field, I like LaPorta as a top option.
DST: San Francisco 49ers - $4,000
An expensive pick for sure, but if you can fit them in, do it.
Theyāre playing the Browns, who have been unable to find their footing since losing Nick Chubb. The QBs havenāt played up to expectation, and San Fran is just a nightmare matchup for almost anybody.
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ā¢ Calvin Ridley MORE THAN 59.5 receiving yards: He feasts against passive, cover-3 looks, which the Colts run the most of in the NFL (61%).
ā¢ Travis Etienne MORE THAN 0.5 rush/receiving/passing TDs: Heās got 82.5% of the backfield touches on his team, and heās getting more receiving work than expected. Even on the goal line.
ā¢ Gardner Minshew MORE THAN 222.5 passing yards: This is a low number for a team thatās been higher-paced. Even against a better defense in Baltimore, Minshew surpassed this number.
ā¢ Tyjae Spears MORE THAN 15.5 receiving yards: Heās been a lot more involved than people expected. Heās hit this number in 2 of 4 games played, and has 4 targets or more for 3 weeks running.
ā¢ Trevor Lawrence MORE THAN 16.5 rushing yards: Heās averaging 26.4 rush yards per game on the year, and has more than 20 in 4 of 5 games so far.
Itās as simple as that! Donāt forget to check out š„ My favorite PrizePicks & Bets this week.
š„ Big Break for San Fran? Browns QB Inactive
š¬ Dolphin RB RETURNS to Practice: Will he Play?
āļø Justin Herbertās Finger Issues Affecting Status
ā”ļø Fantasy RB1 to Return to Field At Long Last
š¤ Pollardās Practice Participation Report
š¤ Texansā WR In Concussion Protocol
š“āā ļø Bucsā WR Limited in Practice: Fantasy Impact?
āļø Did Sun God return to practice on Thursday?
ā¤ļøāš©¹ Jaguarsā WR Trending Down Ahead of Slate
šÆ Higgins Provides Update on Week 6 Status
Good luck this week, whether youāre going for a big cash out or just trying to beat your buddies. You got this!
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