💪 Week 17's Top Fantasy Plays

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 15,000+ fellow degenerates.

The week between Christmas and New Year’s is always tough. I needed this issue drop to remind me it was Friday.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The BEST matchups for fantasy and DFS ✅ 

• TOP DraftKings plays for Week 17 🏈 

• The contrarian plays to help you win tourneys 😈 

• The NFL’s latest player news and notes 📰 

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF)

We only have 2 weeks left to attack the eternal gift of the 2023 Commanders’ defense! The Niners are looking to get right after a tough one against the Ravens, and they draw the best possible opponent to help.

I know I’ve written about these guys week after week, but they are:

• 29th in yards per completion (12)

• 29th in yards per pass attempt (7.7)

• 32nd in passing points per game (18.9)

• 31st in the entire NFL in pressure rate on the QB

That last one matters because when Brock Purdy is not pressured, he completes 75.5% of his passes. This is an easy bounce-back spot.

QB: C.J. Stroud (HOU)

It’s a great week for Stroud even as he returns from the concussion protocol. The rookie struggles under pressure; he only completes 50% of his passes with 5.4 yards per attempt and 2 TDs. When he has a clean pocket though, those numbers rise to 67%, 9.4 yards, and 18 TDs. It’s significant because Tennessee is just 24th in pressure rate, and have struggled mightily in that area.

The Titans are also 23rd in passing points allowed per attempt, 22nd in passing points allowed per game, and are predictably a good comeback for Stroud. Fantasy Life’s Game Hub reveals a favorable matchup for Houston’s offense, particularly in passing percentage and yards per attempt. That’s the Tennessee pass funnel at work.

WR: Nico Collins (HOU)

Collins rounds out a nice stack with Stroud. Consider that with Stroud under center and without Tank Dell, Collins is targeted on 28.5% of his routes run, and leads the Texans in a number of important receiving metrics. And he’s doing dirty work at home. He’s 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards in home games to just Tyreek Hill.

The other thing I like here is that Collins plays 81% of his snaps on the outside, where Tennessee is allowing 126.9 yards per game (32nd) and 10.1 receptions per game (32nd). They’re also allowing 18.9 PPR points per game to opposing WR1s (30th). Put it all together and it’s a good bed Collins pops off.

RB: Kyren Williams (LAR)

Kyren might be underpriced on DraftKings, even at $8,300.

Last week he had another 22 touches and found the end zone for the 12th time this year. He’s also got 100 yards from scrimmage in 6 straight games. He’s like a dollar store CMC.

In fact since returning from injury in Week 12, he leads all RBs with 25.6 touches per game. He’s 2nd only to CMC in yards from scrimmage in that time, and he’s got a great spot against the Giants, who allow:

• 4.6 yards per carry (29th)

• 16.6 rushing points per game

So Williams is simply a guy getting the ball a lot against a team we’ve been picking on a lot with RBs. What could go wrong?

WR: Chris Olave (NO)

With Derek Carr playing so well, I like Olave a lot against the Bucs. They’ve not only been vulnerable against the pass in general, but they blitz at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL. Carr completes 67% of his passes (6th) with 7.7 yards per attempt (6th), and has 7 TDs to 2 INTs vs. blitzes, and Olave is the beneficiary of that.

When the Saints face blitz, Olave has 29.1% of targets, 31% of the team air yards 2.9 yards per route run. he’s 5th among all WRs and TEs in air yards vs. man coverage too. I expect he’ll roll.

WR: Rashee Rice (KC)

Over the past 5 games, Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice have a monopoly on the Chiefs’ targets. Rice has 28.2% in that span, including a target on a whopping 41.7% of his routes against man coverage. Cincinnati runs a fair amount of man, and have been eviscerated by backup QBs in recent weeks, allowing a fantasy WR1 in 3 straight games.

Now they have to deal with Mahomes in a get-right game. Rice is primed and ready.

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)

There are lots of expensive DFS players on today’s list, so here’s a nice little pay down option. JSN is coming off a week where he caught 6 of his 7 targets for 67 yards, and this looks like a good spot for a spike.

The Steelers play man coverage at the 6th-highest rate in the league, and against such looks, JSN is 2nd on the Seahawks with 24% of the targets, and he is targeted on 25.7% of his routes. He’s kind of phasing out Tyler Lockett in those situations.

As a bonus, JSN runs 67% of his routes from the slot, and the Steelers are last in the NFL in allowing 10 yards per target to slot guys.

RB: D’Andre Swift (PHI)

You can’t really go wrong as a RB going against the Arizona Cardinals. They have faced 31.6 backfield touches per game (most), allowing 4.6 yards per carry (30th), 17.9 rushing points per game (31st), 22 TDs (2nd most), and 9 RB1 scoring weeks.

If the Eagles get ahead that’s even better. They’ve been showcasing Swift in those scenarios. As long as he doesn’t get tackled on the 1 and have his TDs vultured by Jalen Hurts, this is the matchup.

TE: Travis Kelce (KC)

Kelce and Patrick Mahomes were both embarrassed after the Raiders loss last weekend, and they will be motivated to make it right at home this week. Kelce has 20.3% of the team targets over the last 5 weeks, and he is going against the Bengals, who have been less than stellar lately:

• 31st in targets

• 31st in receptions

• 31st in yards per target

• Allowing a league-high catch rate of 80.4%

So here’s a sentence I never thought I’d write: the KC pass catchers are good pivots off of Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 17

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF) - $7,000

I’m not overreacting to one bad week against a top defense. Against the Washington Commanders, you should stack Purdy with all his guys, and you’ll be fine.

Since the start of the 2023 season, a whopping 3 QBs have had fewer than 2 TDs against the Commanders’ defense. They can’t stop anybody at the moment. Since we’re getting Purdy at the $7,000 discount, it will only make it easier to build lineups with other 49ers like Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (see below).

QB: Derek Carr (NO) - $5,500

Carr has actually been on a nice little tear during the last few weeks. He’s thrown for 8 TDs since Week 14, so the scoring regression from earlier in the season has largely swung in the other direction. I’m not worried about that stopping against the Buccaneers.

Tampa has one of the more favorable defenses to throw on, because they allow a stupid high catch rate to WRs, and QBs are feasting each week. As a QB discount play, Carr will give you a shot.

Tournament Pivot: $7,300 projected ownership 3-5%

RB: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) - $5,300

Isiah Pacheco is still in the concussion protocol, so this is assuming he doesn’t play. Otherwise it’s kind of out the window.

However, CEH at $5,300 for the volume he’ll receive makes it a smash spot. Every starting RB who lines up against the Bengals aside from 3 have scored at least 13 fantasy points. So I’m very confident using him here with no Pacheco in the lineup.

RB: James Conner (ARI) - $5,900

Is the matchup great? No. But I don’t care because James Conner is going to get all the ground work for the Cardinals. He’s probably in line for 20+ touches, including the work in the passing game, and for a guy who still looks as good as he does at $5,900, I’m clicking on it.

Not to mention, the Eagles have shown some real vulnerability on defense lately. They just haven’t been the same team. If you look at what guys like Kenneth Walker and Saquon Barkley have been able to do recently, you should know you have potential with Conner.

Tournament Pivot: $8,300 projected ownership 12-15%

WR: Deebo Samuel (SF) - $7,700/Brandon Aiyuk (SF) - $7,000

You’re not necessarily going to be able to fit both of these guys into your Purdy stacks, but if there’s a way to do it, it’s not a terrible idea.

The Commanders are one of the worst teams in all of football at defending the pass, defending WRs, and it’s become almost a running joke how many weeks I write about them in this space. I’ve admired the talent of Aiyuk and seen some crazy volume for Deebo that can’t be ignored.

WR: Chris Olave (NO) - $6,800

It looks like Carr and Olave have finally gotten on the same page. In Week 16 he caught 9 of 13 targets for 123 yards and is starting to look like an absolute monster. A stack of Carr with Olave at their salaries this week may give you some really strong leverage in your build.

Olave is still 2nd in the league in total air yards according to Fantasy Life’s Air Yards tool. He’s firmly established himself as one of the league’s premiere wide receivers.

WR: Noah Brown (HOU) - $5,100

C.J. Stroud should be back this week, which brings Brown back into the relevant conversation. We’ve seen spike weeks from Brown when other WRs have been out, and yes this team has been tough to predict when it comes to who will get the targets.

Ultimately I like the discount you’re getting with Brown over Nico Collins, even though I think both guys are set up nicely with their QB1 returning.

Tournament Pivot: $7,800 projected ownership 9-11%

TE: George Kittle (SF) - $5,600

I’m putting Kittle in here because if you have a difficult time building a lineup with both San Francisco WRs, then you could replace one of them with George and still get a nice piece of that Commanders’ defense.

TE: Gerald Everett (LAC) - $3,500

It’s never super exciting to click Everett because we know Donald Parham could end up with a TD instead, frustrating us all. However, if you’re looking for savings after clicking on all those 49ers, consider that Easton Stick has looked for Everett a little more than Justin Herbert. There’s a connection.

And while it may not look like it at first glance, the Broncos’ defense has been slightly more generous to TEs than they have been at other passing positions. Fantasy Life has them ranked dead last against the position.

Tournament Pivot: $5,700 projected ownership 12-15%

DST: Las Vegas Raiders - $3,000

The Raiders have been the top fantasy defense in all of football over the last 2 weeks. That’s no joke. With a few more popular defensive names in the same price range, it’s a good idea to just click on these guys.

Tournament Pivot: $3,000 projected ownership 7-11%

🎆 Jets and Browns Have a High-Scoring Thursday Night 

🚨 Bills’ Pass Rusher Denies Assault Allegations

🗣 Ja’Marr Chase Just Can’t Help Himself

🏈 Purdy Vows to Learn from MNF Stinker

🪑 Vikings’ QB Mullens Learns His Fate 

🐬 Miami WR Likely OUT for Week 17

🤕 Houston QB Stroud Clears Protocol; Will Start

📈 Ravens’ Safety Considers Himself Day-to-Day

⚡️ Chargers Missing Multiple WRs at Practice

🤮 Kyler Murray Dealing with Illness Ahead of Sunday

It’s just this week plus one more until we glide into the playoffs. Let’s make the most of it and win BIG!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.

By the way, I’m live on YouTube every Sunday morning from 9:00-11:00am EST. Come join us and I’m happy to answer any additional questions you have!