🎄 Week 16's Christmas Eve slate

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The MUST STARTS of Week 16 ✅ 

• Strong matchups for DraftKings lineup builds 💪 

• Contrarian sneaky tournament plays 💲 

• NFL player news and notes 📰 

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Justin Fields (CHI)

Fields didn’t really get there last week in the tough matchup against the Browns, but this week he gets one of our favorite exploitable defenses in the Arizona Cardinals, who allow 45% of their opponents’ drives to reach the red zone or score a TD.

The pressure component is relevant here too. Arizona blitzes at the league’s lowest rate. When Fields isn’t pressured, he’s got:

• 71.3% completion rate (vs. 47.6%)

• 8.2 yards per pass attempt (vs. 4.6)

So the lack of pressure is massive for him. Overall, Arizona is 31st in passing points allowed per attempt and 27th in passing points allowed per game. This feels like a Fields week.

WR: D.J. Moore (CHI)

Moore is the obvious stacking partner for Fields. He’s been fairly strong this season, as last week was the first time since Week 10 he hasn’t been a fantasy WR1 when playing with his QB.

I feel like we do this every week, but here’s Arizona against WRs:

• 5.2% TD rate (26th)

• 71.6% catch rate (32nd)

• 9.2 yards per target (29th)

• 17.2 points per game to WR1s (25th)

TE: Trey McBride (ARI)

McBride is the natural bring-back play in this matchup.

Since Kyler Murray returned to the Cardinals, the Arizona WRs are averaging only 88.4 receiving yards per game (31st) and only targeted on 47.3% of Murray’s passes (31st). All of that work is going to McBride.

He’s now been a TE1 in each of the last 6 games that Clayton Tune hasn’t started, and in 4 of those weeks he’s been a top-3 guy. Since Week 8 he leads all TEs in target share and he’s 2nd in yards per route run. He proved last week that he’s kind of matchup-proof, but the Bears are a great one anyway. They’re 29th in catches allowed (5.9) and 30th in catch rate allowed (76.9%) to TEs.

It may surprise you to learn that according to Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report, McBride is now the league leader in targets per route run among all TEs with at least 200 routes. He’s ahead of guys like Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, and Sam LaPorta.

QB: Baker Mayfield (TB)

The Bucs-Jaguars matchup is low-key one of my favorites of the weekend, even with the uncertainty at the QB position for Jacksonville. We do know that Baker is ready to go and he’s played very well lately. He was a monster at Lambeau in Week 15, going for 380 yards and 4 TDs.

The Jaguars’ defense has proven itself to be vulnerable lately, as they’ve allowed a QB1 scoring week in 5 of their past 6 games. Over that span they’ve allowed 8.4 yards per attempt (31st), a 69.8% completion percentage (31st), and a 6.3% TD rate (30th).

So it’s another promising spot for Mayfield as he tried to win the NFC South.

RB: Chuba Hubbard (CAR)

Hubbard now has 93 touches over his last 4 games, which represents a massive share. Only Kyren Williams has more touches in the last month.

The Packers have allowed 5.1 yards per carry to RBs over their last 6 games, which is 30th in the NFL. They’ve allowed 5 rushing TDs and a receiving TD to the position in that span, and have allowed 5 RB1 scorers too.

If the Panthers can kind of keep this game close at home, I expect to see more work from Chuba over the course of the afternoon. He’s the same price as Ty Chandler, who will attract a ton of ownership too, so that’s a bonus.

TE: David Njoku (CLE)

Njoku has been ripping it up, and comes into an amazing matchup with the Texans who are giving up a lot of production to TEs.

In Njoku’s last 9 games:

• 2nd in TDs

• 25% team target share

• 3rd in targets per route run (27.4%)

Then you add in the Flacco factor. He targets TEs on a robust 29% of his throws since joining the Browns. That’s bad news for Houston, who are 31st in receptions allowed per game and 20th in yards per target to the position.

WR: DK Metcalf (SEA)

Metcalf gets a shot at the Titans’ pass funnel defense this week, and we should get Geno Smith back into the lineup. With Geno, Metcalf’s target rate per route run is 23.8% compared to just 15% with Drew Lock. Over his last 4 games with Geno, Metcalf averages over 90 yards and has 4 TDs.

The Titans are 29th in points per game allowed to opposing WR1s (19.1), allowing 9.3 yards per target to such guys. I think a big DK week is likely.

WR: Garrett Wilson (NYJ)

This is certainly not a sexy pick. Wilson has cleared 50 yards just once in his last 5 games. But it’s Christmas, and we need to take advantage of the gift that is the Commanders’ defense again. They allow 15.3 yards per catch, 10.2 yards per target, and an 8% touchdown rate to opposing WRs. All of those are league worsts.

Wilson still leads the Jets with 30.3% of the team’s targets. Even though we won’t get the Aaron Rodgers rollout this season, he could still make some noise.

WR: A.J. Brown (PHI)

As the Eagles have cooled off along with Brown’s torrid pace, people had been wondering if something was wrong with him. I don’t think so, and I’m predicting a big game for him on Christmas Day.

The Giants blitz at the highest rate in the league (42% of dropbacks), and they play man coverage at the 4th-highest rate (38%). Against the blitz, Jalen Hurts looks at Brown on 45% of his throws. When he sees blitz and man coverage, Brown is targeted on 49% of the throws.

And it gets even better. Brown is 2nd in the league in team air yards against man coverage too, getting a whopping 53% of them. So Merry Christmas to anyone with A.J. Brown in their league finals.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 16

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Justin Fields (CHI) - $7,100

As I mentioned above in the matchups section, the Arizona defense is as ugly as a Christmas sweater. They’re at the bottom of the league in so many statistics, including allowing close to half of their opponents’ drives to reach the red zone or score a TD.

Watching Fields from a real football perspective isn’t always the prettiest. He’s slow through his progressions and struggles against pressure. Luckily, the Cardinals are 29th in the NFL in pressure rate.

Then there’s the rushing upside. He could absolutely get there this week and maybe even reach the 100-yard bonus. Who knows?

QB: Nick Mullens (MIN) - $5,300

Mullens actually played pretty well last week as Minnesota continues to try and make the playoffs. He’s a nice cheap option this time that will help you gain the flexibility to build stronger lineups.

It’s really the matchup with Detroit and the indoor conditions that make me think this one could end up producing some fireworks. We know the Lions can push the pace and we know they’re vulnerable against the pass. Justin Jefferson will be out there again for Mullens, too.

The defense vs. position tool from Fantasy Life ranks Detroit 29th against the QB position, but 1st against RBs, meaning Mullens will have his chances this week.

Tournament Pivot: $5,100 projected ownership 5-8%

RB: Rachaad White (TB) - $7,300

This one’s easy. Since Week 9, only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams have more points per game.

On top of that, the Jaguars’ defense has sort of fallen apart over the entire 2nd half of the season. They’re beatable, which could open up more plays for White, who’s already getting bellcow work as it is.

RB: Aaron Jones (GB) - $6,400

The Panthers’ defense is better than most people realize when it comes to defending against QBs and WRs. The way to attack them is through the running game.

The other factor here is the questions about Green Bay’s WRs. They’re going to be limited in some capacity, so you may also get some dump-off pass production from Jones.

Tournament Pivot: $6,300 projected ownership 18-22%

WR: Justin Jefferson (MIN) - $8,400

Jefferson is the obvious pay up guy this week in my opinion. How do you beat the Detroit Lions? Through the passing game. The Lions just can’t stop anybody through the air, so the best wideout in football should be able to get it done.

Bonus shout to Jordan Addison, whose numbers actually rise dramatically when he shares the field with JJ. The triple stack is actually in play with him this week.

Tournament Pivot: $6,300 projected ownership 9-11%

TE: Trey McBride (ARI) - $5,700

McBride leads the NFL in targets per route run among all TEs, and the Bears are near the bottom of the league in catch rate allowed to TEs. McBride has had the volume we want to see from receivers and has been a top-3 guy since midseason.

TE: David Njoku (CLE) - $5,300

In 3 games playing with Joe Flacco, David Njoku has averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game (half point scoring), ranking him 7th among all WRs and TEs. That’s where we are with this guy at the moment. He’s having a career stretch.

Tournament Pivot: $3,100 projected ownership 12-15%

DST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $2,600

The Bucs are a risky play, but they provide a some potential upside. They’re either going up against C.J. Beathard or a version of Trevor Lawrence with an ankle that’s not 100%. We’ve seen guys start to throw some dangerous passes when they can’t plant their feet correctly. Hoping for a turnover here.

DST: Indianapolis Colts - $3,800

The Colts have gotten after the QB really well this season. They should be able to take advantage against the Falcons and Taylor Heinicke, who is a lot more prone to turnovers than Desmond Ridder. The price is up there for a reason, you’re getting a lock at the position.

Tournament Pivot: $2,600 projected ownership 7-11%

🏈 Saints and Rams Play on Thursday Night Football 

👍 Vikings to Install Turf to Help with Injuries

🧲 Colts’ JT Testing Thumb; Will He Play Sunday?

🦌 Rudolph to Start for Steelers on Christmas Weekend

🐯 Bengals’ Star WR Gets Latest Injury Status Update

🤠 RB Pollard Discusses Health Journey

🩹 Titans’ QB Misses Practice for 2nd Straight Day

🦅 Eagle Wide Receiver a DNP on Thursday

😢 Rookie QB Stroud Still in Concussion Protocol

🌹 Ravens’ WR Returns to the Field

Here’s to you advancing to your fantasy championship this weekend!

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