🔥 Week 15's Best Matchups

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 15,000+ fellow degenerates.

The fantasy playoffs are all about putting aside your own personal biases and finding the upsides. Let’s find them.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Key Week 15 fantasy matchups 🔑 

• Optimal DraftKings lineup builds ✅ 

• Sneaky DFS tournament pivot plays 🔁 

• NFL player news and notes 🏈 

Calling all basketball fans! Check out the newsletter from my new partners, Enjoy Basketball. Subscribe below.

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR)

We only have 4 more chances to attack the Commanders’ defense, so let’s hit ‘em hard today, starting with Stafford.

The guy has gotten it together lately with 3 straight QB1 scoring weeks, and the last 2 have been against much better defenses than Washington. In those games, Stafford’s TD rate has been 9%, highest in the league.

The Commanders have some issues:

• 6.7% TD rate allowed (32nd)

• Multiple pass TDs allowed in 10 games

• Allowing the most passing plays of 10+ yards

• Allowing the most TDs from outside of the red zone

And it feels like I say this every week, but every single QB has bested their season average in fantasy points when they play against Washington. It’s a signal week for Stafford.

Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp (LAR):

The big question is which Rams’ receiver will get there. For me, if I’m stacking Stafford, I’m fine with jamming in both. Here are some more Commanders defensive stats to show why:

• 7.8% touchdown rate allowed to WRs (32nd)

• 10.1 yards per target allowed to WRs (32nd)

• 15.5 yards per reception allowed to WRs (32nd)

If we want to find the edge, Nacua plays a bit more on the outside, where Washington is allowing 143 recievng yards per game. Not that they’re much better vs. the slot. Honestly, my biggest hangup is that they won’t be able to push the pace, but I think both Rams’ WRs are safe.

WR: Mike Evans (TB)

A bummer of a performance in Week 14 isn’t enough to deter me from Evans this time. I think he’s in line to rebound. The Packers will run a lot of cover-3 defense, 3rd most in the NFL. Evans has already feasted against the 2 teams that run more cover-3 than Green Bay. Against the Panthers and Colts, he had 6 catches for 70 yards and 2 TDs, and 7 catches for 162 yards and 1 TD against cover-3 looks.

Fantasy Life’s Air Yards Tool is a perfect illustration of how valuable Evans has been to the Bucs and how consistent he’s been in fantasy football throughout his career. It shows him 3rd in the league in air yards with a very healthy 42.1% of the Bucs’ total.

WR: Jayden Reed (GB)

The Packers’ WR room is a mess, and Reed was back at practice on Thursday, setting the stage for a lot of opportunity Sunday. Despite a low air yards per target, Reed has a 27.3% target rate per route run when Christian Watson is out. He’s also targeted 31% of the time when Jordan Love is blitzed, and Tampa Bay blitzes at the highest rate in the league.

Don’t forget the rushing equity too. Reed has scored on the ground 2 weeks in a row. And finally, as a bonus, his price is very low on DraftKings, so take that discount where you can get it.

WR: Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

Another week where I laud Aiyuk’s talent. He’s started to prove himself as a top-10 NFL receiver. This week he gets the lowly Cardinals, and I’m licking my chops to play him.

Arizona is 31st in the NFL in pressure rate, and when Brock Purdy isn’t pressured, he’s money, completing 79% of his passes with 11.1 yards per attempt, 17 TDs to 3 INTs, and a 131.8 QB rating. All of this leads to big numbers from Aiyuk.

With a clean pocket for Purdy, Aiyuk has a 27.7% target share per route run and 12.9 air yards per target. Plug and play my friends.

RB: Ezekiel Elliott (NE)

I’m feeling good for Zeke. He led all RBs in scoring in Week 14 for the first time since 2017, and the workload isn’t going anywhere unless Rhamondre Stevenson comes back for the Patriots. He’s seeing nearly 100% of the backfield touches for New England, including 22 rushes and 7 receptions last weekend. Even if those targets decrease a bit, the Pats are still in the top sector of the league in RB target rate, and the Chiefs are vulnerable against opposing RBs. They’ve allowed a top-10 RB in 3 of their last 4 games.

I think the floor for Zeke is a high-end RB2.

RB: Bijan Robinson (ATL)

Bijan had another 15 touches and turned them into 88 yards and a TD in Week 14. He’s now scored in 5 of his last 6 games despite playing just 7 snaps inside the 10 yard line. His opponent, the Panthers are the sole NFL squad to allow over half of their opponents’ TDs to RBs (21).

With Bijan playing to his immense talent, I think it’s a good bet to expect some production from him here.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)

Tennessee keeps hitting their overs, and a big reason is the big plays they’re capable of making. Hop isn’t separating quite like he used to, but he’s still coming down with this huge catches for his team. Since Will Levis has been under center, Hopkins has 28% of the team’s targets, 44.4% of the air yards, 7 end zone targets, and has scored a TD in 4 of 7 games.

The Houston defensive backfield is allowing 9.4 yards per target to perimeter wideouts (27th), and those types of players have had 100 yards or a TD in 4 of the last 5 matchups.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 15

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Matthew Stafford (LAR) - $6,000

$6,000 is a crazy low price for Stafford in this spot against the Washington Commanders. I listed some of these stats in the previous section, but Washington is dead last or 2nd to last in the league in:

• Pressure rate

• Opponent plays per game

• Opponent yards per play

• Opponent points per drive

• Touchdowns allowed per drive since Week 9

With a lot of expensive options at QB on Sunday’s main slate, it’s crazy not to at least consider Stafford.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF) - $6,800

Brock Purdy has been just super efficient, scoring in the 20s in 5 of his last 6 matchups. His completion percentage is super high and he’s in the top-3 in a bunch of stats over the last few weeks.

The 49ers get the Cardinals on Sunday, and while they aren’t quite as juicy a defense as the Commanders, they’re still in the bottom third of the league in all the same metrics, including points per game, yards per play, and TD drive percentage. Brock’s been Purdy good to us, so let’s go with him here, even for the extra $800 over Stafford.

Tournament Pivot: $6,200 projected ownership 7-10%

RB: Ezekiel Elliott (NE) - $5,800

Zeke’s usage has just exploded in since Rhamondre Stevenson got injured. He’s been 5th in RB touch percentage and his 26% team target percentage would put him ahead of Alvin Kamara if extrapolated over the whole season. Of course, the Pats’ offense isn’t good, but if they get down big to the Chiefs, then Zeke could still get those targets.

According to Fantasy Life and their stellar utilization report, he had 96% of the team’s rushing attempts and a 78% route run percentage in Week 14. It led to a reception TD.

RB: Kyren Williams (LAR) - $7,800

If you count just the games Williams has been active this season, he’s 2nd only to Christian McCaffrey in touches and points per game. Pretty important fantasy RB metrics. I already discussed the matchup advantage in the previous section, but in terms of salary, ability, and the lock on volume regardless of the game flow, Williams is a guy to look to this week.

Tournament Pivot: $6,800 projected ownership 11-16%

WR: Puka Nacua (LAR) - $7,300

Against a couple of strong defenses, Nacua made some noise from a fantasy perspective in the last 2 weeks. 15 targets, 200 yards, and a TD against the Ravens and Browns is no joke. He should be able to do that against the Commanders.

The reason I’d also mention Cooper Kupp here is the target distribution. Nearly 60% of the throws are going to just these 2 guys, which is why they’re both in play in Week 14.

WR: Jayden Reed (GB) - $4,900

This pick is contingent on Christian Watson’s status. We’re assuming he won’t play. But assuming he doesn’t, the Bucs should have trouble with Reed.

The Bucs are 3rd-worst in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, just behind Washington and Philadelphia. It really doesn’t matter who’s been at QB, so Jordan Love is in line for a good passing game, and Reed is in line for a lot of that volume.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) - $6,200

Of all NFL wideouts, only 4 guys have a higher percentage of their team’s air yards than Hop. Those guys are Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, and D.J. Moore. So even though Tennessee’s quality of targets might not be up there, the 43% air yard percentage could get him there anyway.

Tournament Pivot: $7,800 projected ownership 7-10%

TE: Logan Thomas (WAS) - $3,700

One of the strategies that’s been out there basically since Week 6 is to play TEs against the Rams. They’re 30th in the league vs. TEs in fantasy football, according to Fantasy Life. We already know the Washington passing volume is going to be there. If the Rams go up the way we expect them to, Thomas should see work.

TE: Tucker Kraft (GB) - $3,000

Again, this one will go back to Christian Watson’s status ahead of Sunday. If Watson plays, Kraft kind of loses his appeal. But I like him to make some noise against Tampa if he’s a top passing option.

Tournament Pivot: $3,100 projected ownership 17-25%

DST: Cleveland Browns - $3,200

This is a fantastic defense, and with Justin Fields and the Bears coming to town, there’s a good chance they can force some turnovers in the passing game. They aren’t the worst pick this week for just $3,200 in your lineup.

Tournament Pivot: $2,300 projected ownership 2-5%

❤️‍🩹 Seahawks Get News on QB Smith While on 4-Game Skid

✍️ Flacco and Browns Agree on Contract Terms

🐎 Denver TE Ruled OUT for Week 15

🚔 Potential Sentence Revealed for Ex-Jaguars’ Employee

🦁 Detroit Secondary Gets a Boost as CB Cleared

🔥 Texans’ WR Limited in Thursday’s Practice

🩼 Vikings’ Backfield Situation Shakeup Ahead of Sunday

🐬 Miami Stars Missing from Practice

🦬 Buffalo’s Kincaid Limited Practice Status Thursday

🧀 Packers’ RB Dillon’s Monday Night Injury Revealed

All that’s left to do now is survive and advance. Good luck!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.

By the way, I’m live on YouTube every Sunday morning from 9:00-11:00am EST. Come join us and I’m happy to answer any additional questions you have!