🏈 Way-Too-Early Super Bowl Thoughts

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Since the Pro Bowl competitions don’t count, this is your football main event for the weekend.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Early Super Bowl X-Factors 🏈 

• Story lines that could sway the game 🔥 

• Best Bets from my Youtube Guests 📺

• The latest in NFL news and notes 📰 

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

TE: Travis Kelce (KC)

I don’t care that this year has been “sub-par” by Kelce standards. If the Chiefs are going to have success on offense, he’ll be involved. He’s back to his old level of play this postseason, and he’s been a key piece of the Chiefs; wins.

Kelce’s playoff stat lines:

• Dolphins: 7-71

• Bills: 5-75-2

• Ravens: 11-115-1

Kelce’s Super Bowl experience tells me he’ll be an important key to this matchup.

QB: Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Say what you will about Mahomes and his overall ‘23 stats, but you can’t deny his terrific leadership. Even when the Chiefs struggled and had some problems with the officials, he never through any of his teammates under the bus. He’s successfully blocked Josh Allen and now Lamar Jackson from their shots at the championship. He’s starting to look like the next Tom Brady.

RB: Isiah Pacheco (KC)

Last week, I wrote about how the Lions’ RBs could find success on runs outside the tackles. They did just that, taking advantage of the 28th-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed to RBs on outside runs. In fact, this postseason, RBs have run 26 times for 180 yards for 6.9 yards per carry (compared to 3.6 YPC between the guards).

All of this stands out for Pacheco because his inside vs. outside splits are also dramatic.

Pacheco on outside runs:

• 13th in success rate (43.4%)

• 6th in rate of runs for 1st down or TD (30.3%)

Pacheco on inside runs:

• 38th in success rate

• 22nd on rate of runs for a 1st down or TD

Andy Reid knows these stats and he knows what Pacheco can do. He’ll help jumpstart the Chiefs’ offense.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF)

Purdy against man coverage and the blitz is a huge key to this game.

The guy is stellar against man coverage. He’s got 10.4 yards per pass attempt, 14 TDs and just 1 INT over the season in those situations. With the Chiefs running the 3rd-highest percentage of man, that bodes well.

On the flip side, Purdy does face a significant drop off when he has to hang in there against blitzes this postseason. His completion percentage has dropped to 56.5% compared to 67.6% in the regular season, and his yards per pass attempt has dropped from 10 to 7.9.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (SF)

The KC defense ranks 3rd in adjusted fantasy points to WRs and in the bottom 3rd of the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. It’s a true run funnel going against arguably the best back in the league.

The statistics from Fantasy Life back it up. McCaffrey led all RBs in virtually every important statistical metric.

WR: Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

The Chiefs have run the 3rd-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, which provides a clue as to which of the talented San Francisco receivers has a better chance to go off. While both Deebo Samuel and Aiyuk are strong plays all-around, Aiyuk absolutely destroys man coverage. We’re talking top-10 metrics.

Additionally, we can look at what Zay Flowers was able to do last weekend. Sure, he missed a chance at an even bigger game, but he got behind the defense for some big plays. Aiyuk tracks as a similar player to Flowers, and that gives him the edge in the search for the X-factor.

The Super Bowl LIV Rematch

When the Chiefs and the 49ers met in the Super Bowl 4 years ago, it looked like the 49ers had it in the bag. They led by 10 with under 7 minutes left in the game when Jimmy Garoppolo missed a few key throws and kept the window open for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. We all know what happened. Mahomes stormed ahead and scored 21 unanswered points as the Chiefs went on to win 31-10.

Since then, the Chiefs as a team have taken a step back offensively but have more than made up for it this postseason with their dominant defense. Mahomes is as dangerous as ever, but has had some trouble scoring in the second half of these recent playoff games. He’ll have to change that if he finds himself in a late hole again this time.

On the San Francisco side, Brock Purdy is now under center. He’s not a game manager type like Jimmy G. He’s far more effective. He scrambles, he’s more efficient as a passer. He’s also got a more developed Deebo Samuel paired with Brandon Aiyuk, who will do everything in their power to ensure a blown lead won’t happen again.

Kansas City’s Defensive Prowess

This is easily the best defense Mahomes has played with in his time as an NFL QB. Consider the good offenses they’ve limited. The Dolphins scored just 21 points in 2 matchups. The Lions got to just 21 with an absolute gift of a TD. Baltimore only got to 10 last weekend. And the list goes on.

One team that found some offensive success against KC was the Green Bay Packers. They scored 27 points in the December 3rd matchup and really did a lot of positive things to control that game. Packers coach Matt LaFleur and 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan come from the same circles, and are very public friends. You have to think the two of them have spoken about how to limit Kansas City’s attack.

The question is whether the 49ers will be able to replicate it.

Injuries in the Trenches

We found out this week that Charles Omenihu has suffered a torn ACL and will miss the Super Bowl. That at least puts a dent in the Chiefs’ ability to generate an effective pass rush. Considering Brock Purdy has struggled a bit against pressure this postseason, this could be significant. Although, Purdy has been fairly strong against the rush this season.

Additionally, pro bowl guard Joe Thuney has been dealing with a pectoral injury and hasn’t practiced as of Friday. Andy Reid hasn’t ruled him out for the game yet, but his presence on the offensive line is significant for the Chiefs. His progress will be worth watching throughout the week.

I asked my weekly Youtube guests to pick the game against the spread and share their best PrizePicks totals for the week. To see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

Also, check out Fantasy Life’s game hub to gain that extra edge before placing your own bets on the game.

Rich Hribar (@LordReebs)

Chiefs +2.5

Under 47.5

Isiah Pacheco O 16.5 rush attempts

Andy Reid knows he can attack the edges of the 49ers’ defense, and Pacheco had 24 carries against both the Ravens and the Dolphins this postseason. This will be a lock if the Chiefs can build a lead.

Deebo Samuel 14 Fantasy Points

Deebo is like a Swiss army knife, so the fantasy points prop gives us multiple avenues to hit. He can reach it through receptions, rushing yards, and he’s a threat to score. It’s a better choice than the current yardage props.

Jake Ciely (@allinkid)

Chiefs +2.5

Under 47.5

Aiyuk O 63.5 receiving yards.

This one feels like a smash considering what Aiyuk does against man coverage. He was able to gain 68 against the Lions last weekend on just 3 catches, and his volume should go up in the Super Bowl.

Travis Kelce O 72.5 receiving yards

The line may feel slightly aggressive for a TE, but the playoffs have been the Kelce show, and if the Chiefs have any hope to win this game, it will be through him.

Ryan Hodge (@RyanHodge)

49ers -2.5

Under 47.5

Christian McCaffrey over 90.5 rush yards

It’s a big number but he’s hit it in 7 of his last 10 games, and the Chiefs are somewhat of a run funnel. As a bonus, you could also look at his rush+receiving yards prop, currently sitting at 130.5.

Brock Purdy under 32 pass attempts

Including the playoffs Brock has only surpassed this number 3 times all season. He gets it done with efficiency rather than volume, and I think Kyle Shanahan will lean on his running game as much as possible.

💪 Former NFL QB Lands Coaching Gig

🐆 Jaguars Look to FanDuel to Foot Bill

🎶 Here Too? Swift Prop Bets Appear in Sports Books

⚡️ Harbaugh Believes Chargers Can Go on Run

✍️ Raiders Reportedly Set to Hire New OC

🏈 Commanders Hire Ron Rivera’s Replacement

✅ Coming in Clutch: TE Helps with Midair Issue

🚑 RB Gets Surgery for Sports Hernia

🤷‍♂️ WR Diggs Admits Uncertainty About Future

Now I’ll go dig into the metrics on Reba McEntyre so we can nail that national anthem prop.

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