🚨 Wacky Week 18 DFS Plays

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Week 18 too confusing for DraftKings? I got you.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The best DFS matchups for a weird week ✅ 

• Last-chance DraftKings lineup picks 💲 

• Sneaky tournament pivots to keep it unique 💥 

• The latest NFL player news 📰 

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

RB: James Conner (ARI) - $6,100

Conner has has a great last month of football with four straight RB1 scoring weeks, averaging nearly 110 yards from scrimmage per game, and scoring 6 total TDs over the last 4 games.

Of all RBs that have over 100 rushing attempts this season, Conner actually ranks:

• 6th in success rate

• 5th in yards per carry

• 1st in yards after contact per carry

• 8th in rate of runs for a first down or TD

Over the last 6 games, the Seahawks are 31st in yards per carry allowed to RBs and 29th in success rate. Running it back with Conner this week should work out just fine.

WR: Mike Evans (TB) - $7,400

Not many people talked about Evans before the start of this season. We should have known better, despite not seeing the Baker Mayfield resurgence coming.

Last week was a bit of a letdown when Evans only earned 4 targets, but he still turned them into 3 catches for 70 yards. Even when he busts it isn’t a total loss. This week he sees Carolina again, who play a high rate of cover-3 defense. Evans has huge games against teams who play cover-3 at top-10 rates. Against that coverage, he averages 3.32 yards per route run, and is 5th in total receiving yards.

With the Bucs going all out to win the division, I expect they’ll lean on their veteran star WR.

QB: Geno Smith (SEA) - $6,100

Geno has recaptured some of his 2022 magic later in the season. He’s had a few really solid games and he’s leading more scoring drives.

When he saw the Cardinals earlier this season, he had a super-efficient game. He completed 75% of his passes with 9.1 yards per attempt. This despite throwing just 9 times in the second half. That was before the Cardinals had many of their offensive stars on the field, so I expect them to push the pace a bit better this time.

One of Geno’s signals is the amount of pressure he faces. When given a clean pocket, he completes 72.9% of his passes with 8.4 yards per attempt. Those numbers drop to 51% and 5.3 when he’s pressured. Arizona ranks 28th in pressure rate, meaning I have faith in Geno in Week 18.

WR: Justin Jefferson (MIN) - $8,500

JJ scored a TD against the Detroit Lions on Christmas Eve with Nick Mullens throwing him the football, and he’ll look to do it again in Week 18.

Over the last 3 weeks, Mullens has targeted Jefferson on 31.5% of his passes, and Jefferson is drawing a target on 27.5% of his routes with 47.2% of the team’s air yards.

The Lions have been vulnerable against receivers over the back half of the season.

WR: Calvin Ridley (JAX) - $6,500

The Jags have a lot of moving parts this week, but if we get Trevor Lawrence, I think Ridley stands out as a really strong tournament play. With C.J. Beathard in at QB, Ridley had his lowest air yards per target since Week 2. He didn’t have a single target 20+ yards downfield for the 2nd time all year. That changes with Lawrence.

As for the matchup, WRs have scored 66% of the fantasy points scored against the Tennessee Titans, and they’re 29th in the NFL in points allowed to WR1s. Additionally, they’re allowing 127 yards and 10.1 catches per game to outside wideouts, where Ridley does most of his work.

Ridley also gets a huge share of the Jaguars’ red zone (41%) and end zone (51%) targets. Those high-quality ones that are just too nice to pass up.

RB: Rachaad White (TB) - $7,600

Carolina faces 29 backfield touches per game, which is 4th in the NFL. And of all the points they’ve allowed this season, RBs are responsible for 41.4% of them. They’ve allowed a league-high 25 TDs to backs. White himself had 23 touches for 106 yards and a TD against this team back in Week 3.

If you had any doubt about the way Tampa absolutely rides this guy, his 62% rush attempt percentage ranks 3rd in the league, and his 71% route percentage ranks 2nd according to the utilization report from Fantasy Life.

RB: Zamir White (LV) - $6,000

While Josh Jacobs hasn’t been officially ruled out, it seems unlikely that he plays. The Raiders should also be full speed ahead with Antonio Pierce fighting to keep that head coaching job. I think these things bode well for White.

Zamir has at least 20 touches in 3 straight games without Jacobs, and if he’s going to get that against the Broncos’ defense, then sign me up. They’re allowing a league-high yards per carry (5.3), and the 28th-ranked 16.4 rushing points per game to opposing backfields.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MATCHUP of Week 18

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Dak Prescott (DAL) - $8,000

So much changes for Week 18 in terms of teams’ motivations and what they’re actually playing for, so you want to be aware of what’s going on before making your picks. The Cowboys have the division and huge playoff implications on the line, so they are absolutely a safe team to draw from here. That all starts with Dak, who now leads the league in TD passes.

Oh, and throw out Dak’s home and away splits, He’s playing the Commanders (last call!). So many QBs have gone off against these guys that we’d be remiss not to bring Dak into the Week 18 conversation.

QB: Justin Fields (CHI) - $7,200

Green Bay is starting rookies at both corner positions, yet they still have their weapons in tact, so I think this game has a little bit more juice than people expect. If the pace of this one goes off, then Fields will be a solid DFS option for people.

Fields remains second in the NFL in QB rushing yards, and that’s what gives him such a high ceiling each week. He hit that rushing bonus just 2 weeks ago. Check out the rest of his stats from Fantasy Life:

Tournament Pivot: $6,400 projected ownership 7-9%

RB: Zamir White (LV) - $6,000

Factoring in the price, I think White is a potential lock this week. He has 17, 22, and 20 touches in each of the last 3 games. Even though he didn’t quite get to an RB1 score in Week 17, he was close to scoring a TD that would have put him there. Scoring in the mid-teens is solid at $6K no matter how you slice it.

The Broncos are allowing 5.3 yards per carry to opposing RBs. If he gets 20+ touches again he should make some noise.

RB: Kenneth Walker (SEA) - $6,500

With double-digit carries and at least a couple of targets in each of the last 3 weeks, Walker’s volume makes him a comfortable play for me.

In a game where the Seahawks have a lot at stake, against a team that’s been at the bottom of the league against running backs, Walker is a tremendous pay down off of Rachaad White.

Tournament Pivot: $5,700 projected ownership <1%

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL) - $9,300

I know it’s tough to fit in guys like Justin Jefferson and CeeDee at current salary, but if you can fit one of them into a lineup, you need to do it. Lamb has now appeared in this section of the newsletter a bunch lately, and he’s scored a TD in 3 straight weeks.

Chasing the production is not the worst idea in a big time plus matchup with Washington.

WR: DK Metcalf (SEA) - $7,200

This play is the stack to go with if you’re using Geno Smith. DK is in a spot here where he can really go off against the Arizona Cardinals, who we already know give up a ton of points. With the way Geno Smith plays when he isn’t pressured, DK is in a spot to take advantage.

WR: Jayden Reed (GB) - $5,700

Reed has really emerged this season and I think he will be the Packers’ no. 1 WR by the time the 2024 season opens. Sure, the Bears’ defense can be slightly worrisome but Reed’s style is one that can really exploit them.

The Packers’ playoff life is on the line and Reed is the only WR. At the price, you should be able to build some nice lineups with some more expensive plays if you go down to Reed.

Tournament Pivot: $8,700 projected ownership 2-5% 

TE: Juwan Johnson (NO) - $3,600

Johnson has been an interesting guy in that the fantasy and DFS community was on him a lot before the season, but Taysom Hill’s usage kind of threw us all for a loop. Now that Hill’s been phased out again, Johnson is showing us what he can do. He’s been a PPR TE1 in each of the last 3 weeks, including the absolute smash game he had in Week 17 against the Bucs.

Tournament Pivot: $2,500 projected ownership 11-15%

DST: L.A. Chargers - $2,800

What I’m doing this week is slotting someone in who’s playing against a backup QB. The Chiefs will not have Patrick Mahomes, so even though the Chargers have been a poor defense, the price makes it easy to pick them against KC.

Tournament Pivot: $3,300 projected ownership 3-5%

👀 RB Dalvin Cook Signs with a Super Bowl Contender

🦅 WR Smith’s Practice Status for Thursday

🔥 New Details in Fire Started at Tyreek Hill’s Home

❤️‍🩹 Ravens’ WR Officially Doubtful for Sunday

🦁 Lions’ WR “HOT” Over Pro Bowl Snub

🐂 Texans Rule Out Stars Ahead of Win-and-In Game

🏆 49ers Send 9 to Pro Bowl, Including “Mr. Irrelevant”

🧀 CB Alexander Shocked by Discipline

✅ No Designation for RB Harris in Pittsburgh

🐅 Ja’Marr Chasing 100 Catches for Season Despite Injury

It might be a wacky week, but sometimes those provide the best of opportunities. Take advantage!

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