🦃 Turkey Day Fantasy Plays

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

I’m thankful for winning NFL bets and fantasy picks!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• DraftKings picks for the Thanksgiving slate 🍗 

• GPP Tournament Pivot Plays 🔐 

• The latest player news ahead of Week 12 📰 

• All the best fantasy football links for your prep ✅ 

Before you get into the Turkey Day picks, go check out my Prop Drop Newsletter. It’s been helping readers turn a profit every single week. In Week 11, we went 12-6 overall but included a SWEEP on Sunday Night Football.

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Dak Prescott (DAL) - $6,800

Dak will be chalk this week, in no small part because he’s playing against the Washington Commanders, and partially because he was on fire from a fantasy perspective before having an average game against the Panthers in Week 11. But looking at the Washington defense:

• 31st in missed tackle rate

• 32nd in total yards against

• 31st in net passing yards against

• 32nd in points per game allowed

• 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed

So this is an absolute SMASH spot for Dak on a small slate, especially at his salary which seems wrong. Take the money and run with it.

Tournament Pivot: $5,500 projected ownership 10-12%

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - $6,800

The price is low enough to take a chance on Gibbs in the early part of Thanksgiving day. He’s got recent DraftKings performances of 21.5, 26.2, 31.9, and 27.6 against the Baltimore Ravens of all teams.

The Lions are finally using him a bit more than teammate David Montgomery too. It’s about a 60-40 split at the moment. I like him better than a guy like Tony Pollard, who has had trouble finding the end zone, last week notwithstanding.

For all the hoopla about Gibbs not getting enough playing time this year, Fantasy Life’s Air Yards tool shows he’s actually 5th in the league in targets, with other strong receiving metrics as well.

RB: Zach Charbonnet (SEA) - $5,300

Charbonnet is a good pick if you’re looking for a pay-down option. I understand that people see him playing against the 49ers and get scared off. That’s a valid fear, but the guy’s explosive and you’ll get an ownership discount off of A.J. Dillon at a similar price point.

Having both Charbonnet and Christian McCaffrey is also a nice way to get some leverage and flexibility as the day goes on.

Tournament Pivot: $6,300 projected ownership 10-18%

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL) - $8,700

For the big chalky names at WR, I’m leaning Lamb over Amon-Ra St. Brown this week, and it all comes down to the matchup.

First of all, Washington is a bit more beatable in the passing game than Green Bay. Secondly, the stack of Prescott-Lamb just feels like a better play than Jared Goff-Sun God due to Goff’s inconsistency. Remember, before last week Lamb had 4 straight games of over 100 yards.

Bonus shout out here to Brandin Cooks, who’s $4,500. He’s been used at a higher rate than Michael Gallup and always has the ability to make big plays. Consider him for your stack.

WR: Jayden Reed (GB) - $3,200

Reed started to get some Deebo Samuel-type usage once Aaron Jones was out of the lineup. He turned some rushing touches into a TD last week, which was just a huge bonus. So if A.J. Dillon isn’t getting it done, the team could look to him again.

Additionally, Reed ran the 2nd-most routes last week behind Christian Watson, and ahead of Romeo Doubs. We have to make sure he’s healthy, but at this salary, Reed is a great play.

Tournament Pivot: $7,000 projected ownership 18-22%

TE: Jake Ferguson (DAL) - $3,900

This week a lot of people will play George Kittle or Sam LaPorta, but I like the option to pay down for Ferguson, who’s now PPR TE10 on the season as his targets and routes have increased. He’s become a mainstay of that Cowboy offense, and you can take advantage on Thanksgiving.

TE: Tucker Kraft (GB) - $2,500

With Luke Musgrave out, the word on the street is that the Packers have plans to get Kraft involved in Jordan Love’s passing game. Coming into the league, I actually felt Kraft was as talented as Musgrave, so the usage has been surprising so far.

But if he’s on the field this week, you’re getting a deep discount, and if he happens to score a TD, then BOOM. You’re in the money. Take a shot to save some salary.

Tournament Pivot: $6,000 projected ownership 9-14%

DST: Dallas Cowboys - $3,800

Dallas is going to be the turkey day chalk play here. They’re going against Sam Howell, who’s thrown for the most interceptions in the league this year, and he’s going to continue to drop back and throw the football. The Cowboys’ defensive stats kind of speak for themselves.

The game hub from Fantasy Life doesn’t blow me away with favorable matchups for the Washington offense, aside from maybe passing volume.

Tournament Pivot: $3,600 projected ownership 12-16%

💪 Seahawks’ DK Metcalf Expected to Play Thursday

🐦 RB Listed as Doubtful For Thursday’s Game

🚨 Canada Firing Takes Steelers’ QB by Surprise

🧀 Packers’ RB Jones’s Status ahead of Thanksgiving

🐏 Rams’ RB Room Gets a Much-Needed Boost

🐯 No Burrow? No Changes. Business as Usual in Cincy

⚡️ L.A. Pass Rusher Officially Hits IR

🏈 Giants’ QB has Successful Surgery; Long Road Ahead

🌬 Would Brees Still Be Playing if He Could Throw?

🧲 Irsay’s Latest Bonkers Statement on 2014 Arrest

Make sure you set your lineups and get your bets in before that post-Thanksgiving turkey nap sets in!

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