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🏆 The top-17 OVERALL draft picks

🏆 The top-17 OVERALL draft picks

My PPR rankings as they stand today

Joe Holka
July 26, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Let’s treat Wednesday like the middle rounds of a fantasy draft, and find those hidden underrated things about the week.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

How to consider the top 17 🤔
The best WRs, RBs, and a TE ✅
Draft prep you can’t get anywhere else ✍️
NFL news for avid fantasy players 🏈

Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.7, WR1:

JJ is a consensus first pick because he’s a certified beast.

He had 7 games with over 30 PPR points as fantasy’s WR1.

Stat-wise, he led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).

The Vikings passed on over 64% of their plays and averaging nearly 40 passes per game, and Kirk Cousins is one of the more accurate passers in the league.

The 24-year-old is about as sure a bet as you can find.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), ADP 3.2, WR2:

Trust me: you want a piece of this Bengals attack, and Chase is the top target on the team.

He averaged 20.2 PPR points per game (4th), and had 5 weeks as a top-5 WR. He was also 3rd in RZ targets (26), putting him 1st in expected fantasy points per game.

Honestly, he’s just a shade behind Jefferson in my rankings and has spent time at no. 1. He’s 2nd today because of slightly tougher target competition.

But overall there’s nothing stopping him from being one of the top guys in the game.

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 7.9, WR3:

Hill earns targets whether or not Tua Tagovailoa plays:

• 1st in deep targets (36)

• 1st in target rate (33.6%)

• 2nd in target share (31.6%)

• 1st in yards per route (3.38)

He’s still one of the fastest guys in the league at age 29, and will absolutely produce again in Head Coach Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced scheme.

The one place where he could use a boost is in the red zone, where he only saw 11 targets last year.

If that goes up, Hill has overall WR1 upside.

Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 5.1, RB1:

CMC is a generational fantasy guy, worthy of the RB1 title.

After Week 8 in ‘22, he scored 23 PPR points per game, and that was on the back of incredible passing work:

• 2nd in total targets (107)

• 1st in target share (21.8%)

• 1st in route participation (75%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (1.92)

San Francisco loves players who can work in space, make guys miss, and pick up extra yards. CMC fits perfectly.

He’ll continue to do so, and boost any fantasy squad.

Cooper Kupp (LAR), ADP 7.3, WR4:

If it weren’t for the injury last season, we might be talking about a back-to-back WR1.

He was on-pace to finish as WR1 in fantasy PPG again (22.4), with very similar opportunity rates to 2021:

• 4th in target rate (31.5%)

• 3rd in target share (31.0%)

• 7th in yards per route run (2.61)

If Sean McVay can do his thing with his offense again, Kupp will prove his first-round value and then some.

He caught 145 targets in ‘21 and was on pace for nearly the same amount before getting injured last season.

That’s why I like him to finish with MORE THAN 108.5 on PrizePicks.

Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 2.2, RB2:

Ekeler was the non-QB fantasy leader in ‘22, with 372.7 total PPR points across the entire season.

He gets seemingly unlimited touches in that high-powered Chargers’ offense led by Justin Herbert:

• 1st in targets (128)

• 1st in total TDs (18)

• 1st in receptions (107)

• 1st in red zone touches (68)

• 1st in fantasy points per game (21.9)

The Charger backfield has very little competition for these touches, and Ekeler will be playing for a new contract.

More often than not that will boost a guy’s motivation.

He could easily finish as non-QB 1 again. Draft accordingly.

Davante Adams (LV), ADP 9.4, WR5:

Overall WR3 was supported by big opportunity:

• 1st in total TDs (14)

• 5th in RZ targets (22)

• 1st in air yards (2,130)

• 2nd in deep targets (33)

• 1st in target share (32.6%)

And he may have been even better if Derek Carr had been:

Adams had the most unrealized air yards (1,142).

Jimmy Garoppolo may not be everyone’s favorite QB, but he can support high-performing fantasy WRs.

I also think Jakobi Meyers will demand a little more coverage attention than Hunter Renfrow did last season.

Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 6.5, TE1:

Kelce is a fantasy cheat code, finishing as TE1 6 times in the past 7 years, and he was 2nd in the other one.

Here are just a few things Kelce was TE1 in last year:

• TDs (12)

• YAC (609)

• Yards (1,338)

• RZ targets (30)

• Receptions (110)

So, you know, the important stuff.

Kelce’s 2022 fantasy performance would have put him at WR5, and 8th among all players who don’t play QB.

All of a sudden Kadarius Toney has hurt his knee, and it’s tough to trust the consistency of these KC wideouts.

It’s not tough to trust Kelce at all. He’s one of the safest picks and the only TE worthy of a first-round pick.

Stefon Diggs (BUF), ADP 8.4, WR6:

Buffalo’s WR depth leaves something to be desired, which is what makes Diggs so highly-rated as he pushes 30.

He’s about as elite as they come, especially playing with Josh Allen. He was 2nd in total TDs (11), 6th in air yards (1,735), and 3rd in yards per route run (2.87)

There was some trouble in paradise after Buffalo failed to reach the Super Bowl again in the playoffs, and it lingered into this summer with reports of Diggs being disgruntled.

However, it seems like that situation has been resolved.

He’ll feature prominently on one of the NFL’s best teams.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL), ADP 14, WR7:

Lamb had 2 finishes as WR1 and 5 more in the top-12.

Overall he was WR7 in points per game (17.7).

And had plenty of strong metrics:

• 9th in YAC (474)

• 10th in air yards (1,594)

• 9th in deep targets (26)

• 6th in yards per route run (2.62)

And if that’s not enough, he was also 8th in route win rate and 10th in total route wins. The dude is a baller.

I also think Brandin Cooks can help Lamb get open. He’s 29th in route win rate and 8th in contested catches.

Lamb is one of the best in the game, and it’s a smart move to target him and lock him into your lineup.

A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 12.3, WR8:

My love for Amon-Ra is well known.

He had the 8th-most targets last season (146) despite one game missed and a week with just 1 total target.

Amon-Ra’s metrics also put him in elite territory:

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

He only scored 6 times despite 21 red zone targets (8th), so dare I say he may improve in scoring this season?

He’s broken into my 1st round, and should be on your radar.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 12.5, WR9:

If Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, Waddle might be a better value than Tyreek Hill. He’s actually more efficient:

• 1st in yards per target (11.7)

• 1st in yards per reception (18.1)

• 4th in yards per route run (2.81)

All it may take to close the gap between these two is a slight shift in target volume.

Of course, Tua is the key, as Hill’s volume didn’t suffer when he was out, while Waddle’s numbers took a dip.

But Miami didn’t change much in their roster, so the core guys should be ready to run it back again.

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Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 11.6, RB3:

Bijan is a 3-down back with the potential to make an entire offense run smoothly and effectively.

And Atlanta was 2nd in run play percentage last season, even though they often trailed.

Bijan is a highlight machine (seriously, Google it), and has some good college stats to go along with it:

• 20 total TDs

• 1,580 rushing yards

• 16.5 yards per reception

• 104 missed tackles forced

With the return of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and good backfield mates, this could be a rookie breakout.

He has overall RB1 upside.

Saquon Barkley (NYG), ADP 17.8, RB4:

He may very well rise in the rankings after today, since he finally inked a new deal with the Giants.

Healthy Saquon makes their offense go.

He had the 3rd highest opportunity share in ‘22 and there’s no one on the roster to seriously challenge for touches.

He finished 5th in fantasy points per game (17.8), 4th in carries (295), and 6th in targets (76), showing an incredible balance between rushing and receiving.

With that explosive athleticism, Saquon also finished 6th in evaded tackles (85), and 2nd in breakaway runs (18).

Daniel Jones has improved and the roster around him has gotten a nice upgrade too.

Now that the contract dispute is out of the way, it’s time to shine once again in 2023.

A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 11.5, WR10:

Pairing Brown with Jalen Hurts was a good idea.

Brown finished as overall WR6 while scoring 17.6 PPR points per game. Not bad at all.

He had 7 separate finishes in the top 15 WRs, and was:

• 2nd in total TDs (11)

• 4th in air yards (1,772)

• 2nd in yards after catch (543)

• 5th in yards per reception (17.0)

• 2nd in yards per route run (3.01)

The Eagles won the NFC riding the explosiveness of their offense, and Brown was a gigantic part of that.

Playing alongside DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will ensure defensive backfields can never quite key on him.

I see no reason to expect any less in ‘23.

Tony Pollard (DAL), ADP 17.4, RB5:

Pollard finally has the Dallas backfield all to himself after the departure of Ezekiel Elliott.

He was RB8 in fantasy points per game in ‘22 (15.6), but that was on just a 48.1% opportunity share (34th).

With the chances predicted to skyrocket, Pollard will have more of a shot to showcase his elite athletic skills:

• 5th in yards per touch (5.9)

• 2nd in yards per reception (9.5)

• 4th in yards per route run (1.82)

• 4th in breakaway run rate (8.8%)

• 8th in yards created per touch (3.30)

Pollard is now 100% healthy and ready to go for camp.

We’re all excited to see what happens without Zeke.

Nick Chubb (CLE), ADP 21.2, RB6:

Chubb has never finished a season with fewer than 5 yards per carry, and since 2019 has never been outside of the top-10 RBs in points per game. (6th in ‘22).

Last season, he was:

• 3rd in TDs (13)

• 4th in juke rate (40.4%)

• 1st in breakaway runs (23)

• 1st in evaded tackles (133)

• 6th in fantasy points per game (16.6)

He’s got Deshaun Watson’s backfield all to himself, and with the offense expected to be more high-powered, has a shot to be one of the best fantasy assets the league has to offer.