🏈 The top-12 OVERALL picks for 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Guess what day it is, football fans… 🐪 

(Sorry I hated that commercial)

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• How to order your 1st-round board ✅ 

• Who has skewed ADPs ✍️

• Why the cream rises to the top 🍦 

• Latest and greatest NFL news 📰 

Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.1, WR1:

Receivers have leapfrogged running backs as the fantasy priority with the rise of PPR and backfield committees, so it’s as important as ever to grab the elite pass-catchers early.

Jefferson is a near consensus first pick because he’s just downright beastly as a player:

• Overall WR1

• 7 games with over 30 PPR points

• 2nd in fantasy points per game (21.7)

Stat-wise, he led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).

Adam Thielen scored 30 TDs over 3 years for Minnesota; his departure may actually open up more scoring.

The Vikings are a high-paced offense, passing on over 64% of total plays and averaging nearly 40 passes per game.

If you’re looking for guaranteed production, the 24-year-old is as close as you are going to get. If you have the first pick, pull that trigger and ride the wave.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), ADP 2.1, WR2:

Chase is my 2nd pick, falling just a shade behind Jefferson due to playing with another superstar WR in Tee Higgins.

Still, that might not even matter as much as I think it does, as 8 of Chase’s top-10 weekly finishes in 2 years have come alongside Higgins.

But I digress check out the 2022 volume:

• 3rd in RZ targets (26)

• 6th in target share (29.3%)

• 9th in air yards share (36.6%)

In terms of production, things weren’t bad either:

• 20.2 PPR points per game (4th)

• 5 weeks of top-5 fantasy finishes

His confidence is sky-high after recently tweeting a Patrick Mahomes diss, but he’s got a pretty darn good QB too.

Joe Burrow is one of the most accurate in the league in terms of accuracy rating (8.2) and had 5th-most attempts.

Getting a piece of the Bengals offense is a very good idea for fantasy purposes, and Chase is the centerpiece.

Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 4.2, RB1:

Before the pendulum swings too far in favor of the WRs, let’s talk about one of the best overall fantasy performers of the last 5 years.

CMC is worthy of this top RB spot.

The 49ers clearly knew what they were doing when they got him mid-season. It was a terrific fit with 23 PPR points per game after Week 8.

But the best RBs in modern fantasy football makes their real bones in the passing game. McCaffrey was:

• 2nd in total targets (107)

• 1st in target share (21.8%)

• 1st in route participation (75%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (1.92)

Of course, he was 3rd in total TDs as well (13).

San Francisco likes to get its players in space where they can use their athleticism to pick up extra yards.

CMC fits that mold, and will continue to do so in ‘23.

I may have him 3rd, but walking away with him after your draft is a solid win.

Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 8.7, RB2:

Ekeler slots in 4th here, but I wouldn’t fight you if you told me he has more of a case than CMC.

He was the non-QB fantasy leader in ‘22, with 372.7 total PPR points across the whole season.

Ekeler’s opportunity is off the hook too:

• 1st in targets (128)

• 1st in total TDs (18)

• 1st in receptions (107)

• 1st in red zone touches (68)

• 1st in fantasy points per game (21.9)

That’s a lot of 1s.

The Charger backfield has very little competition for these touches, and Ekeler will be playing for a new contract.

More often than not that will boost a guy’s motivation.

He could easily finish as non-QB 1 again. Draft accordingly.

With all those targets in LA, I like his PrizePicks prop of 575.5 receiving yards.

It would be a significant regression from 2022.

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 4.1, WR3:

The Cheetah is easily a top-5 pick this year with the targets he gobbles up for the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa:

• 1st in deep targets (36)

• 1st in target rate (33.6%)

• 2nd in target share (31.6%)

• 1st in yards per route (3.38)

He’s still got a top-10 juke rate and is one of the fastest players in the league at age 29.

With Mike McDaniel running the show, Hill gets the benefit of a fast-paced scheme, especially with healthy Tua.

The one place where Hill could use a boost is in the red zone, where he only saw 11 targets in ‘22.

If the ‘fins can scheme up more end zone plays, look out!

Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 6.3, TE1:

He’s the closest thing we have to a cheat code at any fantasy football position.

In the past 7 years, Kelce has finished as TE1 6 times. He was 2nd in 2021.

Here are just a few things Kelce was TE1 in last year:

• TDs (12)

• YAC (609)

• Yards (1,338)

• RZ targets (30)

• Receptions (110)

So, you know, the important stuff.

And don’t think he can’t move. He finished 2nd in yards per route run and juke rate.

Kelce’s 2022 fantasy performance would have put him at WR5, and 8th among all players who don’t play QB.

He’s surprisingly durable for his size and physicality.

For all the questions about the KC receivers, there’s no doubt about the TE. He’s one of the safest picks and easily the only TE worthy of a first-round price tag.

A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 8.6, WR6:

Pairing Brown with Jalen Hurts was a good idea.

Brown finished as overall WR6 while scoring 17.6 PPR points per game. That’s not bad.

He had 7 separate finishes in the top 15 WRs, and was:

• 2nd in total TDs (11)

• 4th in air yards (1,772)

• 2nd in yards after catch (543)

• 5th in yards per reception (17.0)

• 2nd in yards per route run (3.01)

The Eagles won the NFC riding the explosiveness of their offense, and Brown was a gigantic part of that.

Playing alongside DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will ensure defensive backfields can never quite key on him.

At just 26, there’s no reason to expect any less in ‘23.

Stefon Diggs (BUF), ADP 7.7, WR5:

Diggs isn’t higher than 8 for me solely based on the fact that he will cross the age 30 threshold this season.

However, he’s as elite as they come:

• 2nd in total TDs (11)

• 4th in RZ targets (23)

• 6th in air yards (1,735)

• 10th in target share (28.4%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (2.87)

There was some trouble in paradise after Buffalo failed to reach the Super Bowl again in the playoffs, and it lingered into this summer with reports of being disgruntled.

However, it seems like that situation has been resolved.

Josh Allen still leads one of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses. Diggs helps make it go.

Looking at the WR depth, he’ll feature prominently.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 12.7, WR8:

Aaron Rodgers has all of New Jersey abuzz with expectation for the J-E-T-S.

Wilson has to be among the most excited.

He’s never had a great QB, but has done great work with anyone not named Zach Wilson (8.6 PPG vs. 17.2 PPG).

Other stats of note:

• 11th in air yards (1,575)

• 6th in unrealized air yards (837)

• 19th in total yards after catch (365)

Garrett’s 19 RZ targets (9th) turned into just 4 TDs, so it’s possible we may see more scoring.

There may be a lot of mouths to feed for Rodgers in NY, but Wilson is the most talented of all, and has the best shot to emerge as the fantasy league winner.

That’s why I’m giving him this first-round ranking.

Davante Adams (LV), ADP 13.5, WR9:

Overall WR3 was supported by big opportunity:

• 1st in total TDs (14)

• 5th in RZ targets (22)

• 1st in air yards (2,130)

• 2nd in deep targets (33)

• 1st in target share (32.6%)

And he may have been even better if Derek Carr had been:

Adams had the most unrealized air yards (1,142).

Jimmy Garoppolo may not be everyone’s favorite QB upgrade, but he can support high-performing fantasy WRs.

I also think Jakobi Meyers will demand a little more coverage attention than Hunter Renfrow did last season.

Cooper Kupp (LAR), ADP 4.5, WR4:

I’ve got Kupp a bit lower because I’m less bullish on Matthew Stafford and the Rams after a down season.

Still, Kupp is 1st-round worthy:

• 4th in target rate (31.5%)

• 3rd in target share (31.0%)

• 7th in yards per route run (2.61)

And he was WR1 in fantasy points per game through all of ‘21 (25.9) and his healthy start to ‘22 (22.4).

He was on pace to catch over 150 balls before his injury.

The Rams’ offense has no clear-cut 2nd guy, unless you count Van Jefferson, who has been injured himself lately.

If Sean McVay can do his thing with his offense again, Kupp will prove his first-round value and then some.

Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 10, RB3:

The rookie has cracked my top-12.

On Atlanta.

I hope I don’t regret this,.

Bijan is a 3-down back with the potential to make an entire offense run smoothly and effectively.

Run is exactly what Atlanta will do. They were 2nd in run play percentage last season, even though they often trailed.

Bijan is a highlight machine (seriously, Google it), and has some good college stats to go along with it:

• 20 total TDs

• 1,580 rushing yards

• 16.5 yards per reception

• 104 missed tackles forced

Those 104 missed tackles represented 17.4% of his tackle attempts. That number ranked 2nd in the nation.

With the return of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and good backfield mates, this could be a rookie breakout.

He has overall RB1 upside.

👎 Texas Reunion a No-Go in Cleveland

💨 Titans' Sophomore WR Blazing at Lightning Speed

✨ The Return of Minshew Mania? QB Wants a Shot

🐬 Dolphins' Rookie RB Ready to Make Waves in Offense

👑 Purdy's Journey: Can He Hold on to the QB Throne?

⚡️ Forecast in New England: Strong Lightning

🚫 WR’s Fate Uncertain: Is He a Cap Casualty?

✈️ Jets Believe in Rookie RB: Better Option than Cook

⏳ Marcedes, When? Veteran TE Plays Waiting Game

🚶‍♂️Running with a Walker in the Pacific Northwest

Who remembers this movie? 😂

See you tomorrow! Until then, keep crushing those best ball drafts!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.