Top-12 Fantasy Football Draft Picks

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The BEST 2024 draft picks 📝

• Every competitive league’s first round draft order ✅

• How to access the 2024 Draft Guide for FREE 🏆

• The latest news from around the NFL 🏈

Unless your league mates totally screw it up, this is EXACTLY how the first round of your 2024 draft will go…

RB: Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 1.3

First off the board will be Christian McCaffrey. He’s been a top-2 RB in four straight healthy seasons. He also led all non-quarterbacks with 24.3 PPR points per game last year. The man is a machine. But, he plays in a crowded offense that’s teeming with talent and stiff touch competition. It shouldn’t matter. CMC is the engine that makes his team go. So, there isn’t anyone I’d feel safer taking with the first overall pick.

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), ADP 1.9

After CMC, your draft will see a run of the top wide receivers, who have become the most important position in the game. I give Lamb the inside track at the second spot. Check out some stats from his WR1 year in 2023:

• 1st in targets

• 1st in receptions

• 2nd in total air yards

• 3rd in receiving touchdowns

Tyreek Hill is also a can’t-miss here, but I like Dak Prescott a bit more than Tua Tagovailoa. So, CeeDee Lamb edges out Hill for the top WR pick.

WR: Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 3.1

The Cheetah remains an elite fantasy option. He had 8 weeks as a top-5 WR last year, while also leading the league in targets per route run and yards per route run, according to Fantasy Life. His 13 TDs and top-ranked route win rate don’t hurt either.

Jaylen Waddle gets a lot of flowers in the fantasy community, and rightfully so, but he hasn’t been able to put a dent in Hill’s share of targets or air yards. So you can draft the Cheetah anywhere in the top 3.

WR: Ja’Marr Chae (CIN), ADP 4.3

The person picking 4th should grab Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals are finally healthy, and when that was true in 2023, Chase put up monster numbers. He had 4 weeks as a top-7 WR with Joe Burrow, including a standout 15-catch, 52.2 PPR explosion against the Cardinals in Week 5. Burrow's health looks promising this summer, which brings Chase’s prospects back to the top.

But, One potential cap on Chase’s ceiling is his 15th-ranked target percentage. That’s partly due to the presence of Tee Higgins. Chase is still the elite Bengal wideout. So, he could easily finish as the WR1 overall.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), ADP 6.0

At number 5, you should take Amon-Ra St. Brown. Sun God had 6 or more receptions in all but 2 starts last season and was the WR4 overall. He ranked in the top-10 in key metrics like yards per route run, red zone targets, juke rate, and fantasy points per route. All of that shows his reliability.

But, his target competition remains talented. Sam LaPorta gets all the hype as the trendy pick for top tight end. Jameson Williams is a wild card with a ton of talent. Amon-Ra just keeps shining. So take him in the mid first round and you won’t regret it.

WR: Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 5.3

J.J. is back for another round with the Vikings. Despite injury challenges last season he managed to shine as the WR5 with an impressive 20.2 points per game. After missing some time midseason, he wasted no time reclaiming his role as the offensive focal point. He had some standout finishes despite subpar QB-play and a 4-game losing streak.

But, Kirk Cousins has moved on to Atlanta. Jordan Addison wants to build on his 17% target share. T.J. Hockenson is due back from injury sometime in midseason. So, Jefferson doesn’t command the top-3 pick like he has in recent years, but he’s still a solid WR1 for your team.

RB: Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 6.9

Bijan was just RB17 in PPR points per game, but there are too many positive signs to ignore. First of all, the frustrating usage pattern from 2023 looks like it’s about to change. Despite Bijan’s athleticism leading to some nice passing game production, Arthur Smith’s coaching staff allowed Bijan a paltry 44% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he finished 32nd in the league in red zone touches, ceding many of them to Tyler Allgeier. New Falcons head coach Raheem Morris has said he’ll change the approach and get him the ball as much as possible. That’s good news for the fantasy world because a bump in opportunity should lead to a bump in production, and we could finally get to see the kid who scored 20 TDs for Texas back in 2022.

RB: Breece Hall (NYJ), ADP 8.1

After a slower start due to nursing a leg injury in early 2023, Breece eventually became a fantasy godsend down the stretch. He averaged 20 touches per game after Week 5 and did damage in the fantasy playoffs, finishing as a top-3 fantasy RB in 3 of the last 4 weeks of the season. He was equally terrific in the passing game, finishing:

• 1st in targets

• 1st in receiving yards

• 3rd in yards per route run

• 4th in targets per route run

Rodgers will be a net positive for the Jets’ offense, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hall crush his 2023 rushing total of 996 yards. As of now he’s a very strong late first round pick.

WR: Puka Nacua (LAR), ADP 10.4

There’s a new dominant receiver playing for the Los Angeles Rams. Puka fit right into the dynamic offense last season, and surpassed Cooper Kupp in the process.

Puka finished as the PPR WR4, but his rookie numbers are unmatched in league history. He set records with 114 receptions and 1,667 receiving yards. He ended up 13th in target share at 28%. So, if Kupp’s durability concerns persist or he slows down more at age 31, Puka’s target share could rise even higher. He’s poised to be a mid-to-late first-round pick.

WR: A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 8.8

Brown had a killer stretch in the middle of the 2023 season, with 7 of 10 finishes as a fantasy WR1. But, his numbers dropped off toward the end of the year. The offensive coaching staff took the fall for that one, and the team hired Kellen Moore to iron out the poor play calling. So, Brown remains a WR1 who may even help out in the fantasy playoffs this time around.

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 13.0

Gibbs wasted no time getting a foothold in the league as a rookie, finishing as the RB8 in fantasy points per game and cracking the top 10 in a number of important fantasy metrics, including:

• 9th in target share (14.1%)

• 7th in true yards per carry (4.8)

• 8th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.96)

He finished miles ahead of any other running back in Fantasy Life’s RACR metric, measuring how many air yards convert to actual yards. So, with a year of experience under his belt, he’s a good pick toward the end of the first round.

WR: Garrett Wilson (NYJ) 10.8

Wilson has to be ready for a fresh start to the Aaron Rodgers era. Wilson emerged as a key target last year, ranking 3rd in air yard percentage and 4th in total targets among all WRs. He led the league in total routes run.

But, poor efficiency and scoring caused him to finish outside the top 25 WRs and 32nd in fantasy points per game. He scored just 3 times despite 19 red zone targets. His true catch rate ranked lower than 80 other WRs. So, with Rodgers back in the mix, there’s optimism that these numbers will improve. Wilson remains a strong pick at the end of the first round.

🏈Adams Expected to Stay with Raiders Despite Rumors

😱Brandon Aiyuk Requests Trade from 49ers

💪Daniel Jones to Avoid PUP List

🧀Packers Optimistic About Christian Watson’s Health

😅Patriots' WR Boutte Cleared of Gambling Charges

🐎Broncos Sign UFL Standout Fisher to Boost Defense

🎉Smith-Njigba Excited by New Offensive Scheme

🦵Browns Lock Up Kicker Hopkins with Extension

🚑 Ravens Place RB Keaton Mitchell on PUP List

I’ll be here all summer for the lead up to the NFL season. As always, just pray your league mates don’t see this!

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