💲Top-10 DFS picks in Week 12

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Winning on DraftKings is not easy…

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Lucky for you, we're still grinding. 

Here are Top-10 DFS picks in Week 12:

Some are calling them Locks of the Week.

@allinkid (http://theathletic.com) and I talked through the guys you can set and forget.

Let's get into it 👇

QB: Tua Tagovailoa (DK $7,000 - FD $8,300):

On passes 10-20 yards downfield, Tua:

• No. 1 in yards 

• No. 1 in EPA (.92) 

His opponent, the Texans allow 45.8% explosive rate on those throws.

Mix in the skill set of his WRs.

He's set up big.

QB: Justin Herbert (DK $7,000 - FD $7,900):

Projections don't separate him much from Tua. It's about who you prefer.

Hebert might be the easier stack though, with Joshua Palmer's current volume.

(more on that in a bit)

Favorable matchup with Arizona too.

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RB: Austin Ekeler (DK $8,500 - FD $8,800):

The Cardinals can't tackle anyone. 

If you combine Christian McCafferey and Elijah Mitchell from last week, 

You get almost 20 fantasy points. 

That's without a TD.

Ekeler IS that combo for the Chargers.

The PrizePicks line on Ekeler is 55.5 rushing yards. 

RuntheSims has it at 67% favorite to cash. 

What do you think?

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RB: Jeff Wilson Jr. (DK $5,900 - FD $7,700):

Recent backfield fantasy points given up by Houston since their bye:

• 30 

• 45

• 25

• 25

• 17 

Everyone is just dunking on them. 

We like Ekeler more for the touch share, but Wilson is def in play for the price.

WR: Tyreek Hill (DK $8,800 - FD $9,200):

Tyreek's yards per route run: 3.61.

It's a crazy number and tops in the league.

There's also that juicy matchup we keep talking about.  Explosive plays to be had.

Let's look at some price savers at WR…

Hill's outlook almost always looks good on RunTheSims.

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WR: Joshua Palmer (DK $5,400 - FD $6,800):

His last 4 games have been great.

• 40 targets

• 28 catches

• 303 receiving yards

• 2 touchdowns last week. 

But it's more than that…

Here are some Palmer numbers with and without Mike Williams on the field. 

Target share:

• 16% with Williams

• 24% without Williams

Air Yard share:

• 23% with Williams

• 40% without Williams

With that volume and the Herbert matchup, just lock him in now.

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WR: Garrett Wilson (DK $4,300 - FD $6,000):

Jake likes him because of the massive savings. 

Although there's some hesitation with Mike White at QB. 

We think in this matchup, he could still get 10 targets.

TE: Logan Thomas (DK $3,000 - FD $5,200):

He seems to be back to 100%.

Taylor Heinicke is dealing'

With 6 or 7 targets, Thomas could find the end zone.

TE: Foster Moreau (DK $3,400 - FD $5,400):

We like to attack the Seahawks with TEs. 

The numbers just back it up. 

LV is still without Darren Waller, so he'll get the looks.

DEF: Kansas City Chiefs (DK $2,800 - FD 

This one feels  too obvious.

At this price, at home, vs. the Rams? 

How do we just not smash them in there?

It almost feels like there's a mistake.

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