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š The top 17 OVERALL draft picks
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Final Preseason week starts tonight. I can feel the real thing coming!
Today in 5 minutes or less, youāll learn:
The best 17 draft picks in 2023 āļø
Stats and metrics to back āem up š
Where have guys moved since last time? š
The latest NFL player news and notes š
Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.6, WR1:
Jefferson had 7 separate games of 30+ fantasy points.
He led the league in targets (184), receptions (128), yards (1,809), YAC (630), and route wins (328).
The Vikings and Kirk Cousins passed nearly 40 times per game, which figures to continue, making JJ a sure bet.
JaāMarr Chase (CIN), ADP 3.3, WR2:
Heās a shade behind Jefferson mainly due to more star power competing for targets around him in Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.
But Chase is the WR1 in the Joe Burrow attack, averaging over 20 points per game, and finishing 1st in expected PPG.
Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 3.4, RB1:
Things went nicely once he joined the 49ers last year.
After Week 8, he scored 23 PPR points per game on the back of incredible passing game work:
2nd in total targets (107)
1st in target share (21.8%)
1st in route participation (75%)
3rd in yards per route run (1.92)
Heāll continue to generate YAC at a high level too.
Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 6.1, TE1:
Iāve admitted that I tend not to pull the trigger on Kelce, looking for TE values later on in drafts.
But I get the appeal of a positional cheat code.
He was TE1 in receptions (110), RZ targets (30), TDs (12), yards (1,338), and led ALL PLAYERS not named McCaffrey or Ekeler in yards after the catch, with a whopping 648.
(per Matthew Berryās Fantasy Life)
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Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 6.5, WR3:
Chiefs, Dolphins, concussed QBā¦
None of it matters to the Cheetah:
1st in deep targets (36)
1st in target rate (33.6%)
2nd in target share (31.6%)
1st in yards per route (3.38)
Heās still one of the fastest guys in the league at age 29, and will absolutely produce again in Head Coach Mike McDanielās fast-paced scheme.
If he gets a red zone boost (11 targets), he has WR1 upside.
Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 6.6, RB2:
Ekeler enters a contract year after two consecutive seasons of being the highest fantasy scorer among non-QBs.
In ā22 he was RB1 in:
Targets (128)
Total TDs (18)
Receptions (107)
Red zone touches (68)
Fantasy points per game (21.9)
The one fear is that heāll hit some regression, but the Charger offense is still explosive, and heās still a centerpiece.
Cooper Kupp (LAR), ADP 7.6, WR4:
Some people may be nervous about Kupp due to the injury from last season or even an anticipated drop in Matthew Staffordās play, but Kupp was on pace to be the WR1 again last season.
He averaged 22.6 PPG, which would have led the entire league.
Chart from @MBFantasylife:
Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 9.9, RB3:
The rookie steps into a ready-made situation, as the Falcons were 3rd in rushing in ā22 despite trailing often.
Take a look at Bijanās Texas stats:
20 total TDs
1,580 rushing yards
16.5 yards per reception
104 missed tackles forced in 2 SZNs
Heās the rookie best positioned for a big breakout.
Stefon Diggs (BUF), ADP 10.9, WR5:
Heās about as elite as they come, especially playing with Josh Allen. He was 2nd in total TDs (11), 6th in air yards (1,735), and 3rd in yards per route run (2.87)
I donāt love the WR depth in Buffalo. Even Gabe Davis is a little boom-or-bust for me.
It means Diggs will feature prominently once again.
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Saquon Barkley (NYG), ADP 12.6, RB4:
Saquon led all RBs in total snaps in ā22 (856).
He finished 5th in fantasy points per game (17.8), 4th in carries (295), and 6th in targets (76), showing an incredible balance between rushing and receiving.
With that explosive athleticism, Saquon also finished 6th in evaded tackles (85), and 2nd in breakaway runs (18).
Nick Chubb (CLE), ADP 13.2, RB5:
Chubb has never finished a season with fewer than 5 yards per carry, and since 2019 has never been outside of the top-10 RBs in points per game. (6th in ā22).
Last season, he was:
3rd in TDs (13)
4th in juke rate (40.4%)
1st in breakaway runs (23)
1st in evaded tackles (133)
6th in fantasy points per game (16.6)
Heās got Deshaun Watsonās backfield all to himself, and with the offense expected to be more high-powered, has a shot to be one of the best fantasy assets the league has to offer.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL), ADP 13.3, WR6:
Lamb had 2 weeks as THE WR1 and 5 more in the top-12.
Overall he was WR7 in points per game (17.7).
He was already 8th in route win rate and 10th in total route wins and now gets Brandin Cooks and a healthy Michael Gallup to help him continue to get open at an easier rate.
The dudeās a baller.
A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 14.1, WR7:
Brown was WR3 in air yard percentage (40.8%), and WR4 in WOPR (72%), making him a huge fantasy asset in 2022.
He was also 2nd in TDs (11), 2nd in yards per route run (3.01), and 2nd in yards after the catch (543).
He plays alongside Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, ensuring the opposition can never quite key on him.
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A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 15.8, WR8:
Sun God forever!
As the 8th-most targeted WR with the 2nd-highest route win rate, I think we can safely say he broke out last year.
Despite ranking 8th in RZ targets (21), he scored only 6 TDs.
And Jameson Williams is suspended for 6 games.
Davante Adams (LV), ADP 16.8, WR9:
Lots of people worried about this draft price due to the situation in Vegas, but Adams was WR3 last year on:
1st in total TDs (14)
5th in RZ targets (22)
1st in air yards (2,130)
2nd in deep targets (33)
1st in target share (32.6%)
He had the most unrealized air yards too, so thereās even more room for growth. If Jimmy can find him, heāll keep producing.
Patrick Mahomes (KC), ADP 17.3, QB1:
The leagueās sole 5,000 yard passer from 2022 returns to defend the Super Bowl title with Andy Reid by his side.
He also led the league in passing TDs (41), despite an underwhelming WR corps, at best.
The Chiefs have built something special in Kansas City, and if you like to play fantasy football with a top QB, youāll do just fine with the NFLās finest player and top scorer.
Chart from Fantasy Life:
Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 18.6, WR10:
I like the Hard Knocks hype on this guy.
He was terrific last year in volume numbers:
6th in total targets (147)
11th in raw air yards (1,575)
6th in unrealized air yards (837)
He also had a ton of unrealized air yards and only scored 4 TDs.
So with a bit more QB consistency, heās primed to soar.
ADP from Matthew Berryās Fantasy Life website.
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