✍️ The top 17 OVERALL draft picks

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Let’s picks some Wednesday Winners together!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The best 17 draft picks in 2023 ⭐️

• Stats and metrics to back ‘em up 📊 

• Where have guys moved since last time? 📈 

• The latest NFL player news and notes 🏈 

Justin Jefferson (MIN), ADP 1.1 WR1:

He had 7 games with over 30 PPR points as fantasy’s WR1.

He was WR1 in:

• Targets (184)

• Receptions (128)

• Route wins (328)

• Receiving Yards (1,809)

• Yards after the catch (630)

The Vikings passed on over 64% of their plays and averaging nearly 40 passes per game, and Kirk Cousins is one of the more accurate passers in the league.

The 24-year-old is about as sure a bet as you can find.

Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 2.2, RB1:

Have we swung so far in the WR direction that we’re missing the best value at RB?

Ekeler gets seemingly unlimited touches in that high-powered Chargers’ offense led by Justin Herbert:

• 1st in targets (128)

• 1st in total TDs (18)

• 1st in receptions (107)

• 1st in red zone touches (68)

• 1st in fantasy points per game (21.9)

Ekeler is motivated again this season playing for a new deal.

He’s been the non-QB fantasy scoring leader for two years running, and could easily do it again.

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), ADP 3.5, WR2:

Even with the fog around Joe Burrow’s return to the field, you want a piece of this offense.

He averaged 20.2 PPR points per game (4th), and had 5 weeks as a top-5 WR. He was also 3rd in RZ targets (26), putting him 1st in expected fantasy points per game.

Chase has spent time at the top of my rankings, and is only shifted here today because of Burrow’s injury.

There’s nothing stopping him from being one of the top guys in the game, and if you draft him first or second, I won’t blame you.

Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 5, RB2:

CMC is neck-and-neck with Ekeler as the favorite for RB1.

After Week 8 in ‘22, he scored 23 PPR points per game, and that was on the back of incredible passing work:

• 2nd in total targets (107)

• 1st in target share (21.8%)

• 1st in route participation (75%)

• 3rd in yards per route run (1.92)

San Francisco loves players who can work in space, make guys miss, and pick up extra yards. CMC fits perfectly.

He’ll continue to do so, and boost your squad.

Cooper Kupp (LAR), ADP 5.2, WR3:

Sean McVay doesn’t seem too worried about Kupp’s “tweak,” so I’m not either at this point.

He was on pace to finish as WR1 in fantasy PPG again (22.4), with very similar opportunity rates to 2021:

• 4th in target rate (31.5%)

• 3rd in target share (31.0%)

• 7th in yards per route run (2.61)

He caught 145 targets in ‘21 and was on pace for nearly the same amount before getting injured last season.

I still say he’s worth a first round draft pick.

Travis Kelce (KC), ADP 6.9, TE1:

Kelce is far and away the best TE in the league, and maybe league history at this point.

He’s been TE1 6 of the last 7 seasons.

Here are just a few things Kelce was FIRST in last SZN:

• TDs (12)

• YAC (609)

• Yards (1,338)

• RZ targets (30)

• Receptions (110)

So the important stuff.

Kelce’s 2022 fantasy performance would have put him at WR5, and 8th among all players who don’t play QB.

The KC wideouts are somewhat suspect for fantasy purposes, but Kelce is the antithesis of that.

He’s the only TE you’ll see me put anywhere NEAR round 1.

PrizePicks has Kelce taking slight steps back in some categories, but I think he’ll keep pace. The 95.5 receptions feels too low.

Check it out:

Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 7.9, WR4:

He’s still one of the more explosive guys in the league:

• 1st in deep targets (36)

• 1st in target rate (33.6%)

• 2nd in target share (31.6%)

• 1st in yards per route run (3.38)

He vacuums up targets regardless of whether Tua Tagovailoa plays, so he’s pretty much QB-proof.

The one place where he could use a boost is in the red zone, where he only saw 11 targets last year.

If that goes up, Hill has overall WR1 upside.

Stefon Diggs (BUF), ADP 8.2, WR5:

Buffalo’s WR depth leaves something to be desired, which is what makes Diggs so highly-rated as he pushes 30.

He’s as elite as they come playing with Josh Allen.

He was:

• 2nd in total TDs (11)

• 6th in air yards (1,735)

• 3rd in yards per route run (2.87)

There was some trouble in paradise after Buffalo failed to reach the Super Bowl again in the playoffs, and it lingered into this summer with reports of Diggs being disgruntled.

However, it seems like that situation has been resolved.

He’ll feature prominently on one of the NFL’s best teams.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), ADP 8.9, WR6:

He’s broken into the first round, baby!

Sun God had the 8th-most targets last season (146) despite one game missed and a week with just 1 total target.

Amon-Ra’s metrics also put him in elite territory:

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

He only scored 6 times despite 21 red zone targets (8th), so dare I say he may improve in scoring this season?

Bijan Robinson (ATL), ADP 9.6, RB3:

Bijan is a 3-down back with the potential to make an entire offense run smoothly and effectively.

And Atlanta was 2nd in run play percentage last season, even though they often trailed.

Bijan is a highlight machine (seriously, Google it), and has some good college stats to go along with it:

• 20 total TDs

• 1,580 rushing yards

• 16.5 yards per reception

• 104 missed tackles forced

With the return of Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and good backfield mates, this could be a rookie breakout.

He has overall RB1 upside.

Davante Adams (LV), ADP 10.6, WR7:

Adams was PPR WR3 last season with Derek Carr at the helm, but takes a hit here with concerns about his team and Jimmy Garoppolo at QB.

But he’s been doing his thing for years, and the undeniable talent still shows:

• 1st in total TDs (14)

• 5th in RZ targets (22)

• 1st in air yards (2,130)

• 2nd in deep targets (33)

• 1st in target share (32.6%)

He also had the most unrealized air yards, which may be tough to correct with his new QB.

But in the end, this guy is a proven vet who has done it before. He will be alright no matter who is playing QB.

A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 11.8, WR8:

Brown finished as overall WR6 while scoring 17.6 PPR points per game. Not bad.

He had 7 separate finishes in the top 15 WRs, and was:

• 2nd in total TDs (11)

• 4th in air yards (1,772)

• 2nd in yards after catch (543)

• 5th in yards per reception (17.0)

• 2nd in yards per route run (3.01)

Playing alongside DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will ensure defensive backfields can never quite key on him.

I see no reason to expect any less in ‘23.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL), ADP 13.5, WR9:

Lamb had 2 weeks as top WR and 5 more in the top-12.

He was WR7 in points per game (17.7), and has plenty of strong metrics to his name:

• 9th in YAC (474)

• 10th in air yards (1,594)

• 9th in deep targets (26)

• 6th in yards per route run (2.62)

And if that’s not enough, he was also 8th in route win rate and 10th in total route wins. The dude is a baller.

I also think Brandin Cooks can help Lamb get open. He’s 29th in route win rate and 8th in contested catches.

Lamb is one of the best in the game, and it’s a smart move to target him and lock him into your lineup.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ), ADP 15.4, WR10:

He showed great stuff in ‘22:

• 6th in total targets (147)

• 11th in raw air yards (1,575)

• 6th in unrealized air yards (837)

He also only scored 4 times on 19 RZ targets.

And now he enjoys one of the best QB upgrades possible.

The possibility is that he becomes truly elite.

Jaylen Waddle (MIA), ADP 16.1, WR11:

Waddle might actually be a better value than Tyreek Hill. He’s the more efficient WR:

• 1st in yards per target (11.7)

• 1st in yards per reception (18.1)

• 4th in yards per route run (2.81)

All it may take to close the gap between these two is a slight shift in target volume.

Of course, Tua is the key, as Hill’s volume didn’t suffer when he was out, while Waddle’s numbers took a dip.

But Miami didn’t change much in their roster, so the core guys should be ready to run it back again.

Jonathan Taylor (IND), ADP 17.2, RB4:

He’s only a season removed from his RB1 finish. The Colts will need to call on that talent if they want to acclimate Anthony Richardson to the fold.

Richardson’s presence will create both a need for the team to lean on their running game, and a preoccupation from opposing LBs, as he’s one of the more athletic QBs out there.

Shane Steichen is now the Colts’ coach.

Last year his RBs in Philadelphia scored 18 TDs.

That bodes well for JT’s fantasy outlook.

Tony Pollard (DAL), ADP 17.9, RB5:

Pollard was RB8 in fantasy points per game in ‘22 (15.6), but that was on just a 48.1% opportunity share (34th).

Now that Ezekiel Elliott is gone, he’ll have a chance to go nuts.

He’s a very productive runner:

• 5th in yards per touch (5.9)

• 2nd in yards per reception (9.5)

• 4th in yards per route run (1.82)

• 4th in breakaway run rate (8.8%)

• 8th in yards created per touch (3.30)

He’s now 100% healthy and ready to go for camp.

The sky’s the limit for Tony in that Dallas offense.

🏈 Raiders RB Shakeup: Zamir White Tops Depth Chart

💪 Cowboys' DT Smith's MRI Shows No Damage

🤕 Cardinals' RB Mack Injured in Practice

🏃‍♂️ Saints On the Hunt for Veteran RB

🤷‍♂️ Return Remains Unclear for Dobbins, Ravens

🛠 Two Browns DEs Have Knee Surgeries

🤔 Clark Carted Off: Falcons' Phillips Injured

🙌 Jaguars Rookie RB Shines as Pass Catcher

⚠️ JT’s Ankle Woes: Colt Sidelined

Keep battling through the rest of this week, and join me tomorrow for 7 more players about to GO NUTS!

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