🏆 Super Bowl Sunday Preview

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Super Bowl Sunday news and notes 📰 

• Matchup breakdowns and final thoughts 💥 

• Useful big game DFS Links 🔗🔗

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🏈 RB McKinnon Active; Playing Status Still Unknown

😢 Guard Thuney Unable to Play in Sunday’s Game

✍️ Shanahan Keeps the Focus Despite Narratives

🔥 49ers Unhappy With Late Night Alarm During Week

💰 Bettors Flocking to Kelce Props for Super Bowl LVIII

💵 Biggest Super Bowl Bets Being Placed

🎤 Usher’s Set List Unknown, but Speculation Circulates

🥑 Mexican Avocado Growers Thankful for Super Bowl

✅ Rice, Jones Off Injury Report for Chiefs

🐻 Bears Asking Price for No. 1 Pick Historic

🥇 Lamar Jackson Wins Second NFL MVP Award

📈 Browns’ Flacco is Comeback Player of 2023

🚨 Texans Youngsters Sweep ROTY Awards

🚔 Ravens’ WR Flowers Under Investigation

✈️ Rodgers Feeling Close to 100% in Recovery

🩼 Vikings’ TE Hockenson Could Miss a Month of 2024

We finally made it. The last two teams of the 2023-2024 season will face off later this evening in what is undeniably America’s biggest sporting event. By now most football fans have placed their prop bets, set their DraftKings lineups and made up their minds about the outcome of this game. But what can we actually expect from an X’s and O’s standpoint?

The Fantasy Life Game Hub has been my go-to tool all season long for figuring out the most exploitable matchups around the league, and has been invaluable in helping me to come out ahead this year.

With these two teams there aren’t many areas where the matchup is lopsided. Sure we see an icon next to yards per carry for San Francisco, but that’s as much a result of Christian McCaffrey’s immense talent as anything we can find on the Chiefs’ defense. Here are some of my thoughts on what I think will play out when these teams take the field tonight.

When KC Has the Ball

The Chiefs’ attack starts and ends with two of the biggest stars in professional football in Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Their playoff and Super Bowl experience will help them to calm the nerves and focus on what they do best: making plays. Kelce’s targets per route run has been over 25% throughout the entire playoff run, and he’s going to get the looks again against a 49ers defense that ranked 8th against the position this season (Fantasy Life).

Beyond those two, the other big offensive players for the Chiefs are Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. I broke down Pacheco’s inside/outside splits in the last newsletter, so I expect him to try and replicate what Jahmyr Gibbs did in the NFC Championship game. He’ll try and find the edge to keep the chains moving for KC, although missing Joe Thuney does change the outlook math ever-so-slightly.

Rice himself has more than half of all Mahomes’s playoff targets aimed at WRs this playoffs (55.5%) easily making him the most important pass catcher outside of Kelce. If the 49ers can find a way to slow them down, then they have a real chance to limit the Chiefs’ passing attack.

Guys like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Noah Gray, Justin Watson, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire can contribute, and one or more of them likely will, but we’re talking much more of a crapshoot once we get down to this end of the depth chart.

When SF Has the Ball:

All Christian McCaffrey does is produce stats. He scored OVER 100 more PPR fantasy points than the RB2 (Breece Hall) this year. A similar drop from Breece puts us all the way down to RB24. The guy is a beast, and the Chiefs’ biggest weakness on defense is against the run. I feel comfortable throwing a few bucks at CMC for multiple TDs.

I’ve been on the Brandon Aiyuk train all season, because I think the guy’s talent is superior to most of the other WRs in the league. When he and Deebo Samuel are on the field together, it’s very difficult for any defenses to stop them. I think it’s likely that the Chiefs play a heavy dose of man coverage, as they have all year, and that’s usually Aiyuk’s bread and butter to eat up. It will be fun to watch the battle if L’Jarius Sneed shadows him.

Brock Purdy does not have the star power, pedigree, or the intangibles of Patrick Mahomes, but he is ultra efficient and lets his playmakers do their thing. He’ll find all of these guys along with TE George Kittle, who has made some really clutch catches during this playoff run.

Like the Chiefs, it’s hard to say whether the next guys on the depth chart will contribute in big ways. Juaun Jennings is the next WR up for these guys, but I’m not really sure if there’s a ton of opportunity left after the other guys eat. They probably don’t need much more anyway.

Final Thoughts:

Honestly this feels like a fairly straightforward game. Both teams have been fairly predictable in their opportunity shares and guys who are behind most of the production. The 49ers probably have a few more offensive playmakers than the Chiefs, but Patrick Mahomes has dimensions to his skill set that just can’t be planned for. He’s going to do something surprising.

Ultimately, Vegas has it right again by keeping the spread so tight. My feeling is that San Francisco has the manpower to come out on top, but it’s absolutely crucial that they don’t fall into a hole again like they did against both the Packers and Lions. They won’t get away with that again, and they know that. I’m counting on them to come out fast and stave off the Mahomes heroics.

My final pick: 49ers 28, Chiefs 24

And with that we close the book on the 2023 NFL season. But that doesn’t mean we’re done. Keep a look out for my offseason content and prep for next year’s fantasy football season — Coming soon!

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