🏈 Super Bowl LVIII Positional Matchups

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Mr. Irrelevant has the 2nd-best odds to win Super Bowl MVP, and you’re gonna slack off at work on Monday.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Key positional breakdowns for both teams 🏈 

• Under-the-radar long shot impact guys 🔍

• Considerations for your DraftKings lineups 🤑 

• All the latest in Super Bowl news and notes 📰 

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QB: Patrick Mahomes

We can officially toss the 2023 regular season stats. Mahomes’s perceived “struggles” are long gone and he has the Chiefs seeming as inevitable as anyone in a very long time. It’s a shock that his team is the underdog.

The QB’s experience has shone in the playoffs. His completion percentage, yards per game, and passer rating have all ticked up from his regular season levels, and he hasn’t turned the ball over. Mahomes has a higher ceiling than Purdy too, so if you’re trying to optimize a DraftKings lineup, you probably prefer to build around him.

From a matchup perspective, San Francisco has the 3rd-ranked defense against QBs per Fantasy Life’s defense vs. position tool, but Baltimore was ranked no. 1 in the same category. Mahomes got by them by playing smart, taking care of the football, and leaning on his defense. I think he does the same in the big game.

TE: Travis Kelce

The media’s love for Kelce is not unfounded. The guy is still a difference maker on the field, which has been totally apparent during these playoffs. In 3 games he’s racked up 23 reception for 262 yards and 3 TDs, with 100 of those yards coming after the catch. That’s on an extremely strong 29.7% target share.

Other than that, it just sort of feels like Kelce’s on top of the world. Dare I say he has karma on his side?

RB: Isiah Pacheco

Despite the fact that San Francisco ranked 5th in raw rushing yards per game in 2023, they looked vulnerable in the NFC Championship game. That’s because the Lions figured out they could be beat on the outside and around the edge. Luckily for Pacheco, that’s where he excels.

Pacheco on runs outside the tackles:

• 13th in success rate (43.4%)

• 6th in rate of runs for 1st down or TD (30.3%)

Pacheco on runs from guard to guard:

• 38th in success rate

• 22nd on rate of runs for a 1st down or TD

To me, this is a signal that he should have a better than average performance because the Chiefs coaches will be prepared to exploit what they can.

WR: Rashee Rice

Since midseason we’ve known where most of the Chiefs’ WR targets are going. That’s been even more pronounced in the playoffs. Rice has 27.5% of the total team targets and a whopping 55.5% of the WR targets on the Chiefs since the frigid game against Miami.

Rice will be pivotal in moving the chains and he’s the best WR stacking option with Mahomes for this matchup.

CLICK HERE for my long-shot Kansas City Chiefs Impact Player

QB: Brock Purdy

You got to give it to Purdy for embracing the narrative of being the final pick of his draft. Clearly the guy has taken advantage of his situation and become one of the league’s most efficient passers with the talent around him. He’s also had to crawl out of a couple of holes so far this postseason, passing the test both times.

The Chiefs prefer to run man defenses, which bodes well for Purdy’s performance. He has 10.4 yards per attempt, 14 TDs and just 1 INT vs. man this year. Whether the Chiefs can get home with their pass rush will be a huge factor in whether that success continues. This postseason has seen Brock’s numbers drop against a good rush.

Ultimately, he should use the skill guys around him to play an efficient football game.

RB: Christian McCaffrey

The Chiefs are a bit of a run-funnel defense, ranking 3rd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, but in the mid-20’s against RBs. CMC is killing it, rolling his regular season performance right into the playoffs. He’s got 4 total TDs in 2 games, averaging 5.4 yards per touch.

McCaffrey’s seasonal stats are absolutely stellar. He was by-far the best offensive player in the NFL, and would win MVP if it weren’t reserved for the best quarterback.

WRs: Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel

It’s always a fun trying to play the guessing game with these two, and by “fun” I mean incredibly frustrating. I’ve been on the Aiyuk bandwagon all year. I think he’s realized his talent and his production and usage has edged him ahead of Deebo for the title of WR1 for the 49ers. However, that’s why I think Deebo has the advantage in the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs were 5th this season in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WR1s, but 25th against their opponents’ 2nd options. I’m going to assume that will free up Samuel, whose unique skill set will allow him to get open and gain some important yards after the catch.

On the other hand, Kansas City’s 3rd-highest rate of man coverage seems to slightly favor Aiyuk. Both guys can be productive against most looks, but Aiyuk is a top-10 WR in his metrics vs. man. It will be interesting to see if Chiefs CB L’Jarius Sneed is up to the challenge.

Either way, this duo is among the most formidable in the league, and they give the 49ers the edge at the position.

TE: George Kittle

Kittle may only have 6 receptions in the last 2 games, but they’ve been hugely impactful. He leads the team with 3 catches of 20+ yards and has one of Purdy’s 2 TD passes.

When the stable of 49ers skill guys are all healthy, Kittle has a tendency to lose out on volume opportunities. I’m not saying that will necessarily come to pass this Sunday, but he just doesn’t have the same volume guarantee as Kelce on the other side.

Still, Kittle remains a prolific player who will contribute to his offense’s success. I think he’ll be set up to produce.

CLICK HERE for my long-shot San Francisco 49ers Impact Player

🚨 Limited TE at Thursday’s Practice for San Francisco

💵 Chiefs’ TE Kelce a Popular Super Bowl Bet

💉 From Cancer to the Championship: 49ers’ Tackle Grateful

😈 Mahomes Willing to Pay the Price of a Title

🏈 Former Chiefs Coordinator Still Supportive During Run 

💪 Offensive Guard Thuney Still Trying to Play Sunday

💥 San Fran Defense Resolves to Limit Mistakes in Super Bowl

🎮 Is the AI Accurate? Madden Sim Favors KC

✍️ Signing Sneed Top Priority for Kansas City 

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