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🤦‍♂️ Stop Drafting BRUTAL Running Backs

🤦‍♂️ Stop Drafting BRUTAL Running Backs

Draft these 7 guys instead

Joe Holka
June 14, 2023

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Here, fantasy football is a year-round sport.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

7 RB targets for 7 draft rounds 🎯
How to capitalize on lost draft value 📉
Great options for zero-RB drafters 🏈
The latest from the NFL offseason 💪

Round 1: Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 9.4, RB2:

It’s hard to deny how much of a machine he was on his way to the PPR RB1 finish. Ekeler was 1st in a multitude of categories:

• Targets (128)

• Total TDs (18)

• Receptions (107)

• Red zone touches (68)

• Fantasy points per game (21.9)

With 38 TDs over the last 2 seasons, he’s by far been the most productive RB, and that should continue this year for multiple reasons.

The Bolts have a good offense without much backfield competition for Ekeler.

There’s also the matter of his contract situation. Rather than give him an extension, the team opted to throw in some incentive bonuses.

To summarize: the top fantasy RB with the highest passing game usage is now motivated by the need for a new contract.

You can confidently draft him in the first round.

Round 2: Saquon Barkley (NYG), ADP 18, RB5:

We can address the contract issue in a minute. Let’s start with the football.

Saquon came through with a healthy season and did not disappoint.

His usage finally popped off under Brian Daboll:

• 5th target share (17.2%)

• 7th in total receptions (57)

• 3rd opportunity share (80.1%)

He turned the opportunity into the 5th-place PPR finish in points per game (17.8) while showcasing his elite athleticism to break 86 tackles.

‘Quon was the key to the Giants’ offense running in ‘22, and he really doesn’t have much competition for touches on the roster.

Now the catch.

He’s threatening to holdout, believing he deserves a new contract that the team is reluctant to offer (NY Daily News).

The issue is worth watching as we get closer to the season, but if you’re drafting early, I think it’s ok to take the chance on the potential upside.

Round 3: Josh Jacobs (LV), ADP 27.6, RB9:

Jacobs has a contract situation similar to Barkley, which is why he’s going at a round 3 price tag at the moment. However, for this exercise…

Jacobs was fantasy back NUMBER 1 if you’re still playing in a league with standard scoring.

(He was 3rd in PPR)

He led the league in opportunity share (83.7%) and total rushing yards (1,653).

He also had career highs in receptions (53) and receiving yards (400).

Vegas hasn’t done much to improve at RB.

Zamir White continues to fail to earn a consistent role, and Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden have been supporting characters at best.

What it comes down to is this:

The Raiders seem to need Jacobs, and with the way they rode him last year, they should probably work to strike a deal.

If that happens, he won’t be available in round 3.

He’s also got a great prop on PrizePicks at the moment. It’s set at 500 fewer rush yards than he had last season. I’m taking the OVER.

Check it out:

Round 4: Najee Harris (PIT), ADP 37.3, RB12:

He had a dip in raw production numbers that seems to be hurting his draft value.

First of all, he started 2022 recovering from a foot injury that had him feeling a little rusty.

He still managed the 10th-highest opportunity share (69.9%) over the course of the season.

His finish to the year was very strong.

From Week 11-Week 18:

• Got 18 carries per game

• Scored at least 1 TD in 6 of 8 games

• Double-digit fantasy points in every game

Pittsburgh’s O-line got better throughout the season. Then they added some talent in the draft, so they’ll be ready to continue that momentum.

The QB is looking better going into this year.

Harris is nicely positioned to return to his rookie form, when he finished as PPR RB3 on the year. He could easily be your team’s lead back.

Round 5: Aaron Jones (GB), ADP 54.1, RB17:

His upside might capped by A.J. Dillon, but there are still things to like at his current round 5 ADP.

Jones in ‘22:

• 14th in juke rate (29.4%)

• 9th in evaded tackles (80)

• 9th in target share (13.4%)

• 6th in total receptions (59)

• 15th in breakaway run rate (6.6%)

AJ Dillon did hog some of the goal line work, but he was a distant 43rd in route participation and 29th in target share, so Jones is the passing game guy for sure.

His ability to run good routes will help Jordan Love adjust to a full time starting role and provide a nice outlet on throws underneath.

With this in mind, I think a 5th-round ADP could end up being a value.

Warning shot:

People have been telling me to do this for years, but 2023 is the last season my fantasy football draft kit will be free.

However, if you deposit $5 here🔗(Code:JHS100) and fill out this Google form🔗, you will be grandfathered into a FREE draft kit in 2024 and a MASSIVE discount in 2025.

And it's risk free…

If you complete above and don't make the playoffs this year after opening my newsletter every day, I'll 100% refund this $5 deposit.

Round 6: Miles Sanders (CAR), ADP 62.8, RB19

Not everyone is sold on Sanders’s Panthers outlook, but the guy can play good football:

• 5th in rush yards (1,269)

• 9th in total touchdowns (11)

• 14th in true yards per carry (4.7)

The most exciting thing about Sanders going to Carolina in my mind is that much of the coaching staff is already familiar with him from their time in Philadelphia. They know what he’s capable of.

They’ve said they want him to get back into a larger pass-catching role as an outlet for rookie QB Bryce Young (ESPN).

That’s exciting news — he caught 50 balls as a rookie in 2019, but never more than 28 since.

He’s a prime target for the zero-RB strategy.

Round 7: D’Andre Swift (PHI), ADP 76.2, RB22

He never found the consistency to merit his 2nd-round price last season.

That was due to a combination of unlucky injuries, the favor of his coaches, and the beastly goal line work of Jamaal Williams.

But looking closer at the numbers, Swift has a lot to offer if given the chance:

• 8th in true YPC (4.9)

• 2nd in yards per touch (6.3)

• 5th in yards per route run (1.78)

• 10th in yards per reception (8.1)

• 5th in breakaway run rate (8.1%)

Those are strong individual numbers that show he can be productive for the NFC champs.

The risk here, like in Detroit, is usage. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles don’t typically throw to RBs, and Rashaad Penny is also a totally capable runner who will compete for carries.

Still, with the apparent talent, Swift is a safe bet here in the 7th round.

It’s a totally reasonable cost.