🏈 START these players in Week 9

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Happy Friday! Here’s to making it through another week of faking adulthood.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• MUST STARTS with great matchups ✅ 

• Smart DFS plays for Sunday 🤓 

• Pivots for tournament formats 🔁 

• All the need-to-know player news 📰 

Don’t forget to check out my newsletter, Prop Drop. We were on an 18-10 run before a tough couple of breaks on Thursday Night.

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

Is this guy good at WR or what?

The Cowboys have actually adjusted his usage the last 2 weeks, playing him out wide at a higher pace than before, and allowing him more access to those outside, downfield shots. In those games, he’s averaged 4.6 yards per route run, and caught 8-of-9 targets for 153 yards and a TD.

Philadelphia has struggled a bit vs. outside WRs. To such players, they allow:

• 7.9% touchdown rate (31st)

• 10.3 receptions per game (31st)

So Dallas should be incentivized to keep him outside and letting him produce down the field.

QB: Derek Carr (NO)

Carr represents a nice pay-down on DraftKings this week if you’re loading up on expensive skill guys. He’s now thrown for 300 or more yards in 3 straight games, and now has a cushy matchup against the Bears, who are sneaky good against the run but are becoming sort of a pass funnel.

In fact, Chicago is:

• 29th in TD rate allowed

• 27th in completion rate allowed

• 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed

• 29th in passing points allowed to quarterbacks

It’s a nice setup for the Saints, and a good price point on Carr.

RB: Jonathan Taylor/Zack Moss (IND)

This is a backfield that’s a little tougher to read. JT was hot in the first half in Week 8, but then took a backseat (touch-wise) to Moss in the 2nd half. It’s tough to say whether this is about passing situations or just a quirk of the game script for Indy.

But the reason I think both guys are playable is that the Colts play fast. They run almost the most plays in the league and their opponents run the most. The Panthers are a team we can target pretty much every week. So let it rip!

We can certainly bet on the volume being there according to Fantasy Life’s Team Styles Tool. It shows the Colts playing a balanced or run-heavy offense all season, with lower than average drop backs over expectation.

WR: Michael Pittman (IND)

Let’s stick with the Colts and look at their passing game for a moment. Pittman should have had a difficult time in his last 2 matchups, but he’s been very good and found the end zone in both games. He’s been a top-15 WR for 3 weeks in a row, when he was top-15 just 5 times in all of last season.

Carolina’s defense is 27th in yards per target allowed to WRs, and 25th in TD rate allowed. The one caveat is that they’ve been so bad the passing volume against them isn’t always there, but the pace of the Colts may mitigate that issue in the long run.

WR: A.J. Brown (PHI)

It’s easy to talk about this guy pretty much every week. He’s sitting at 6 straight games with at least 127 receiving yards. It’s amazing.

In those games, Brown is:

• 2nd in catches

• 1st in receiving yards

• Tied for 1st in touchdowns

Against man coverage, which the Cowboys prefer, Brown averages 4.34 yards per route run, and has caught 23-of-34 targets for 343 yards and 3 TDs. All of those numbers lead the NFL.

WR: Davante Adams (LV)

Adams has the 4th-highest rate of inaccurate targets this season, so he’s not been a plug-and-play like he has so often in the past. But with the news that Aiden O’Connell will be under center instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, I think there are some signals out there for Adams this week.

The Giants are 27th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing WR1s. They have allowed either 90 yards, a TD, or both to such players. O’Connell (albeit in a small sample size) targeted Davante on 32.5% of his routes.

Crank the volume on this one.

WR: Jonathan Mingo (CAR)

Mingo is sort of a wild card pick this week. The Panthers did some restructuring during their bye and came out passing at a much more aggressive rate, especially on first down. Combine that with the pace of the Colts and the volume may be there.

Mingo only had 4 catches for 62 yards, but he ran routes at his highest rate of the season, 97.5% of the team’s drop backs. So if we’re talking DFS, Mingo will be a nice pivot play off of guys projected to be higher owned.

QB: Mac Jones (NE)

Reebs calls this the “end of his career” pick.

BUT, Mac has had a QB2 and a QB8 week, so he’s capable of spikes. Every single QB who faces Washington this season has been both a top-10 scorer AND scored higher than their average on the rest of the season. That includes guys like Tyrod Taylor and Desmond Ridder.

On a slate that’s really kind of gross at the QB spot, Mac could represent an affordable answer at salary.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 9

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QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI) - $8,000

There aren’t too many options this week at the 2nd salary level of QBs, so if you’re paying anything at all, go up to Hurts at $8K. Yes, there’s been some concern about his rushing upside with the knee being banged up, but it may not matter with how efficient he’s been throwing the football.

At first glance, it looks like the Cowboys are a tough matchup, but over the last few weeks, they’ve actually been average against QBs in terms of fantasy numbers, and the Eagles are probably good enough to overcome most matchups anyway.

Tournament Pivot: $8,200 projected ownership 8-11%

RB: Josh Jacobs (LV) - $6,900

Jacobs hasn’t been elite this season at all, but with his volume and the matchup he’s in a really good spot. The Giants check a lot of boxes in terms of matchup vs. RBs, including allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry since Week 4.

Jacobs since Week 4:

• 3rd in RB touch percentage

• 3rd in team target percentage

• 12th in fantasy points per game

Plus with Aiden O’Connell at QB, Jacobs has been the 2nd target on the team after Davante Adams.

RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND)

In addition to the discussion above about the Colts pace of play, Taylor is averaging 6.0 yards per touch since the Colts got him back to his 100% volume. Zack Moss is a threat to the production, but we love him in this spot.

Tournament Pivot: $7,900 projected ownership 15-20%

WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) - $5,600

The Patriots defense isn’t as scary as we thought it might be at the start of the season. They haven’t been able to take away their opponents’ number 1 weapon quite like they used to. And J.C. Jackson is currently the 7th worst-graded CB in the league with a minimum of 100 cover snaps.

Terry will be the one to take advantage of that down the field. At $5,600, the price is right.

Fantasy Life’s Air Yards Tool shows Terry as the WR13 in total air yards on the season, with a bunch of other good metrics to show for it as well.

Tournament Pivot: $4,400 projected ownership 1-3%

TE: Jake Ferguson (DAL) - $4,000

The Eagles overall have been a bit vulnerable against slot WRs and TEs, so Ferguson has another big week well within his reach.

With Ferguson, you’re hoping for one of two outcomes. Either you get a big volume day where he gets 7-10 targets, or you’re hoping for a score. Both are in the range of outcomes for him in Week 9.

TE: Taysom Hill (NO) - $4,700

With his performance in the last 2 games, Hill should be $7,000. The fact that he’s not close makes him an easy click.

Sure, there’s always a risk that he doesn’t produce, but he’s working well right now for New Orleans, and they may just keep going back to him. He has between 8 and 10 touches in 3 straight games. The touches are high-value too, because a lot of them come close to the goal line.

If you told me you could get 8-10 touches for a TE at this salary, I’d be interested before you told me the name.

Tournament Pivot: $6,800 projected ownership 3-6%

DST: Baltimore Ravens - $3,800

Baltimore is a little more expensive for a defense, but Geno Smith is another guy who gets a little reckless with the football when he’s forced to throw a lot. The Ravens should be able to put him in that position and make some plays.

Tournament Pivot: $2,600 projected ownership 3-5%

❤️‍🩹 Falcons’ WR1 Logs Consecutive DNP

👿 WR Osborne’s Status for Vikings

🦵 Giants Work Out Kickers as Gano Hits IR

🧲 Downs Not Out; But Limited

⚡️ Good News for LA Chargers’ TE

🤙 Latest on Niners’ WR Deebo’s Chances

🦬 Star QB Upgraded to FULL PARTICIPANT

🤕 Walled Off: Giants TE OUT for Week 9

🐬 Availability Report on Miami Weapons

🏈 Teammate WRs Both in Question for Sunday

That’s all. I’ll be back Sunday morning. Play like a champion this weekend!

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