šŸˆ START these players in Week 9

Don't end your fantasy weekend in regret

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Happy Friday! Hereā€™s to making it through another week of faking adulthood.

Today in 5 minutes or less, youā€™ll learn:

  • MUST STARTS with great matchups āœ… 

  • Smart DFS plays for Sunday šŸ¤“ 

  • Pivots for tournament formats šŸ” 

  • All the need-to-know player news šŸ“° 

Donā€™t forget to check out my newsletter, Prop Drop. We were on an 18-10 run before a tough couple of breaks on Thursday Night.

NFL Drop ArmyDominate NFL betting with daily, data-driven prop picks from a proven proā€”tail in seconds, win long-term.

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

Is this guy good at WR or what?

The Cowboys have actually adjusted his usage the last 2 weeks, playing him out wide at a higher pace than before, and allowing him more access to those outside, downfield shots. In those games, heā€™s averaged 4.6 yards per route run, and caught 8-of-9 targets for 153 yards and a TD.

Philadelphia has struggled a bit vs. outside WRs. To such players, they allow:

  • 7.9% touchdown rate (31st)

  • 10.3 receptions per game (31st)

So Dallas should be incentivized to keep him outside and letting him produce down the field.

QB: Derek Carr (NO)

Carr represents a nice pay-down on DraftKings this week if youā€™re loading up on expensive skill guys. Heā€™s now thrown for 300 or more yards in 3 straight games, and now has a cushy matchup against the Bears, who are sneaky good against the run but are becoming sort of a pass funnel.

In fact, Chicago is:

  • 29th in TD rate allowed

  • 27th in completion rate allowed

  • 23rd in yards per pass attempt allowed

  • 29th in passing points allowed to quarterbacks

Itā€™s a nice setup for the Saints, and a good price point on Carr.

RB: Jonathan Taylor/Zack Moss (IND)

This is a backfield thatā€™s a little tougher to read. JT was hot in the first half in Week 8, but then took a backseat (touch-wise) to Moss in the 2nd half. Itā€™s tough to say whether this is about passing situations or just a quirk of the game script for Indy.

But the reason I think both guys are playable is that the Colts play fast. They run almost the most plays in the league and their opponents run the most. The Panthers are a team we can target pretty much every week. So let it rip!

We can certainly bet on the volume being there according to Fantasy Lifeā€™s Team Styles Tool. It shows the Colts playing a balanced or run-heavy offense all season, with lower than average drop backs over expectation.

WR: Michael Pittman (IND)

Letā€™s stick with the Colts and look at their passing game for a moment. Pittman should have had a difficult time in his last 2 matchups, but heā€™s been very good and found the end zone in both games. Heā€™s been a top-15 WR for 3 weeks in a row, when he was top-15 just 5 times in all of last season.

Carolinaā€™s defense is 27th in yards per target allowed to WRs, and 25th in TD rate allowed. The one caveat is that theyā€™ve been so bad the passing volume against them isnā€™t always there, but the pace of the Colts may mitigate that issue in the long run.

WR: A.J. Brown (PHI)

Itā€™s easy to talk about this guy pretty much every week. Heā€™s sitting at 6 straight games with at least 127 receiving yards. Itā€™s amazing.

In those games, Brown is:

  • 2nd in catches

  • 1st in receiving yards

  • Tied for 1st in touchdowns

Against man coverage, which the Cowboys prefer, Brown averages 4.34 yards per route run, and has caught 23-of-34 targets for 343 yards and 3 TDs. All of those numbers lead the NFL.

WR: Davante Adams (LV)

Adams has the 4th-highest rate of inaccurate targets this season, so heā€™s not been a plug-and-play like he has so often in the past. But with the news that Aiden Oā€™Connell will be under center instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, I think there are some signals out there for Adams this week.

The Giants are 27th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing WR1s. They have allowed either 90 yards, a TD, or both to such players. Oā€™Connell (albeit in a small sample size) targeted Davante on 32.5% of his routes.

Crank the volume on this one.

WR: Jonathan Mingo (CAR)

Mingo is sort of a wild card pick this week. The Panthers did some restructuring during their bye and came out passing at a much more aggressive rate, especially on first down. Combine that with the pace of the Colts and the volume may be there.

Mingo only had 4 catches for 62 yards, but he ran routes at his highest rate of the season, 97.5% of the teamā€™s drop backs. So if weā€™re talking DFS, Mingo will be a nice pivot play off of guys projected to be higher owned.

QB: Mac Jones (NE)

Reebs calls this the ā€œend of his careerā€ pick.

BUT, Mac has had a QB2 and a QB8 week, so heā€™s capable of spikes. Every single QB who faces Washington this season has been both a top-10 scorer AND scored higher than their average on the rest of the season. That includes guys like Tyrod Taylor and Desmond Ridder.

On a slate thatā€™s really kind of gross at the QB spot, Mac could represent an affordable answer at salary.

THE BEST FRIDAY LINKS

Things your friends probably read this weekā€¦ so youā€™ll probably want to catch up šŸ‘‡šŸ»

ā€¢ šŸ† The only link you can find my redraft rankings this week

ā€¢ ā­ Top DraftKings picks at each position

ā€¢ šŸŽÆ Low-owned DraftKings tournament plays

ā€¢ šŸ“š Best DraftKings GPP Stacks


āœ… Win big with my new newsletter ā€œProp Dropā€ 

(tap here to subscribe)

Player prop picks backed by data and analysis in each drop. Delivered right to your inbox... where you can tail in less than 60 seconds.

šŸ’° The DFS Masterclass

A free e-book to teach you how to win more on DraftKings & FanDuel

āœ… The Daily Prop 

One of the Best Free Sports Betting Newsletters you will find.

QB: Jalen Hurts (PHI) - $8,000

There arenā€™t too many options this week at the 2nd salary level of QBs, so if youā€™re paying anything at all, go up to Hurts at $8K. Yes, thereā€™s been some concern about his rushing upside with the knee being banged up, but it may not matter with how efficient heā€™s been throwing the football.

At first glance, it looks like the Cowboys are a tough matchup, but over the last few weeks, theyā€™ve actually been average against QBs in terms of fantasy numbers, and the Eagles are probably good enough to overcome most matchups anyway.

RB: Josh Jacobs (LV) - $6,900

Jacobs hasnā€™t been elite this season at all, but with his volume and the matchup heā€™s in a really good spot. The Giants check a lot of boxes in terms of matchup vs. RBs, including allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry since Week 4.

Jacobs since Week 4:

  • 3rd in RB touch percentage

  • 3rd in team target percentage

  • 12th in fantasy points per game

Plus with Aiden Oā€™Connell at QB, Jacobs has been the 2nd target on the team after Davante Adams.

RB: Jonathan Taylor (IND)

In addition to the discussion above about the Colts pace of play, Taylor is averaging 6.0 yards per touch since the Colts got him back to his 100% volume. Zack Moss is a threat to the production, but we love him in this spot.

WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS) - $5,600

The Patriots defense isnā€™t as scary as we thought it might be at the start of the season. They havenā€™t been able to take away their opponentsā€™ number 1 weapon quite like they used to. And J.C. Jackson is currently the 7th worst-graded CB in the league with a minimum of 100 cover snaps.

Terry will be the one to take advantage of that down the field. At $5,600, the price is right.

Fantasy Lifeā€™s Air Yards Tool shows Terry as the WR13 in total air yards on the season, with a bunch of other good metrics to show for it as well.

TE: Jake Ferguson (DAL) - $4,000

The Eagles overall have been a bit vulnerable against slot WRs and TEs, so Ferguson has another big week well within his reach.

With Ferguson, youā€™re hoping for one of two outcomes. Either you get a big volume day where he gets 7-10 targets, or youā€™re hoping for a score. Both are in the range of outcomes for him in Week 9.

TE: Taysom Hill (NO) - $4,700

With his performance in the last 2 games, Hill should be $7,000. The fact that heā€™s not close makes him an easy click.

Sure, thereā€™s always a risk that he doesnā€™t produce, but heā€™s working well right now for New Orleans, and they may just keep going back to him. He has between 8 and 10 touches in 3 straight games. The touches are high-value too, because a lot of them come close to the goal line.

If you told me you could get 8-10 touches for a TE at this salary, Iā€™d be interested before you told me the name.

DST: Baltimore Ravens - $3,800

Baltimore is a little more expensive for a defense, but Geno Smith is another guy who gets a little reckless with the football when heā€™s forced to throw a lot. The Ravens should be able to put him in that position and make some plays.

ā¤ļøā€šŸ©¹ Falconsā€™ WR1 Logs Consecutive DNP

šŸ‘æ WR Osborneā€™s Status for Vikings

šŸ¦µ Giants Work Out Kickers as Gano Hits IR

šŸ§² Downs Not Out; But Limited

āš”ļø Good News for LA Chargersā€™ TE

šŸ¤™ Latest on Ninersā€™ WR Deeboā€™s Chances

šŸ¦¬ Star QB Upgraded to FULL PARTICIPANT

šŸ¤• Walled Off: Giants TE OUT for Week 9

šŸ¬ Availability Report on Miami Weapons

šŸˆ Teammate WRs Both in Question for Sunday

Thatā€™s all. Iā€™ll be back Sunday morning. Play like a champion this weekend!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan ā€” pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didnā€™t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.

By the way, Iā€™m live on YouTube every Sunday morning from 9:00-11:00am EST. Come join us and Iā€™m happy to answer any additional questions you have!

NFL Drop ArmyDominate NFL betting with daily, data-driven prop picks from a proven proā€”tail in seconds, win long-term.
The Daily Prop