🤑Stack these 3 Teams if you want to WIN your DFS in Week 13!

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Trying to WIN on DraftKings this Week?

Then you better STACK these 3 games...

We can help with that, read this:

Back at it again with @LordReebs, breaking down the games of the week.

Here's what we found...

And why it matters for you in Week 13

LA Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5):

It's the 3rd-highest O/U on the main slate.

So what stands out?

Games in Vegas are averaging 53 points per game (2nd only to Detroit).

And the matchup works…

Raiders:

• 3rd in scoring rate

• 27th in rate of scoring drives allowed

Chargers:

• 11th in scoring rate

• 28th in rate of scoring drives allowed

Let's begin with LAC…

Austin Ekeler (DK $8,500 - FD $9,200) stands out.

The Chargers have abandoned the run, but he gets handoffs through the air.

They're essentially free points.

They offset career low yards per target and yards per reception.

And guess who has the worst pass defense vs. RBs?

Even with the low rushing output for LAC,

48.5 Rushing yards for Ekeler on PrizePicks feels low.

The OVER is a 67.5% favorite to win.

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Justin Herbert (DK $7,200 - FD $8,100) leads the NFL in drop backs per game (46).

And LV:

• 29th in passing PPG allowed

• Allowed 9 top-12 QB scoring weeks (most)

• Herbert scored over 20 DK points every time he's played them

You can stack him with Ekeler.

Or the next guy.

Keenan Allen (DK $6,500 - FD $7,700) ran a route on 93% of drop backs last week.

LV stats vs slot:

• 31st in catch rate

• 8.8% TD rate (31st)

• 13.6 yards per catch (29th)

• 31st in yards allowed per target

On to their offense…

Let's start at the top with Davante Adams (DK $8,700 - FD $8,600).

Look at his opportunity:

• 11 targets last week

• No. 1. in targets per route run (35.5%)

• Over 30% of team targets in 4 straight

• Had 17 targets in week 1 vs. the Chargers

But the ownership may go…

With Josh Jacobs (DK $7,900 - FD $9,500).

Remember last week when he had 39 touches for 303 yards.

The Chargers D vs. RBs:

• 31st in rushing yards allowed (18.8)

• 30th in yards allowed prior to contact

• 32nd in yards allowed AFTER contact

That's why Jacobs is no. 5 in RunTheSims this week.

He appears in 16.9% of optimal lineups.

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Let's mention Foster Moreau (DK $3,600 - FD $5,500).

He'll be on the field, we know that.

But, he hasn't had more than 44 yards in a game.

Tread lightly.

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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5):

This game is super popular outside of fantasy, but might go under the radar.

Scoring rate per drive since week 7:

• Miami is 3rd

• San Fran is 5th

Yards per route run:

• Miami is 1st

• San Fran is 2nd

Tua Tagovailoa (DK $6,700 - FD $7,800) has faced subpar defenses.

The Dolphins will likely also still be without Terron Amrstead.

When that happens, Miami QBs are under pressure.

Then again, SF has faced poor QB play…

Tyreek Hill (DK $8,800 - FD $9,000):

• 1st in yards per route run

• 4th in PPR points per game

• 1st in target rate per route run

And a low percentage of those points come from TDs.

Could we still see positive regression?

On the Niners side, Christian McCafferey (DK $8,600 - FD $8,200) hasn't practiced.

Tough to trust without knowing the status.

He hasn't been a great rusher lately anyway.

And the Dolphins are 2nd-best in league in rate of carries to go for 1st down or TD.

So what about the passing game?

Jimmy Garoppolo (DK $5,700 - FD $7,000) has had 4 QB1 games in last 6 starts.

And Miami likes to play man.

Jimmy vs. man:

• 9 TDs

• 3rd in EPA per drop back

A Jimmy stack with a Tyreek runback makes sense.

Who do we stack with?

George Kittle (DK $5,000 - FD $6,200) is in a weird price range.

It could be beneficial.

But he's just so volatile.

Play him for the upside angle. Miami is bad vs. TEs.

Brandon Aiyuk (DK $6,100 - FD $6,700) rounds it out for SF.

Against man coverage, he's targeted on 29% of routes.

That's up from 19.1% vs. zone.

The matchup makes sense.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (+2):

Obviously the firepower in this one will make it popular.

Cincy is 1st in the NFL in early down pass rate. KC is 2nd.

In terms of rate of TDs, Joe Burrow is 2nd, and Patrick Mahomes is 3rd.

On the KC side, it's really tough to do the big stack due to the cost:

• Patrick Mahomes (DK $8,300 - FD $9,000)

• Travis Kelce (DK$7,900 - FD $8,400)

So, who else can we look at?

Isaiah Pacheco (DK $5,700 - FD $7,000) is interesting, even with low pass volume.

Suppose Jerick McKinnon doesn't play.

Or Melvin Gordon isn't ready to be involved.

This could be the week Pacheco sees some targets.

And we always want to be early to those.

For WR, only 2 Chiefs have been getting the targets.

JuJu Smith Schuster (DK $5,700 - FD $6,900) was at 81% route participation.

That was pre-concussion, so we hope he can get back there.

The other guy is Skyy Moore (DK $3,100 - FD $5,300) in that Mecole Hardman role.

Why these two in particular?

Both operate out of the slot.

Bengals vs. slot WRs:

• 10 yards allowed per target (28th)

• 45% of opponents catches come from the slot

And believe it or not, Moore is targeted at the highest rate per route on the team.

The Bengals have some questions.

Joe Mixon may not play.

If he sits, it's probably fine to trust Samaje Perine (DK $6,000 - FD $7,100).

Keep an eye on the situation.

This is a great spot for Joe Burrow (DK $6,900 - FD $8,300).

KC Defense:

• Faces 34 pass attempts per game (most)

• 31st in passing points allowed per attempt

Put those together, and they allow the most passing points to QBs.

What about the pass catchers?

Ja'Marr Chase (DK $7,900 - FD $8,900) is back.

So we should set him and forget him right?

Well... it's tough to know what to expect.

There could always be a ramp up period.

Tee Higgins (DK $7,200 - FD $8,300) could be the more efficient play.

Why?

Tee Higgins when Chase is healthy:

• 213 pass routes

• 24% of team targets on such routes

• 1st on the team in share of air yards

• 2.14 yards per route run (highest on team)

So, if others are running to Ja'Marr, Tee backers could benefit.

Also worth mentioning?

Hayden Hurst (DK $3,500 - FD $5,300).

He's an inexpensive TE on this high-powered offense.

In a game with fireworks, he'll be there.

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