🏆 Roster and Start These Players in Week 11

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It’s Friday: the day of the week where you’ll determine whether you win or whine on Sunday – choose wisely!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Can’t-miss matchups for your lineup 🔥 

• The week’s DraftKings LOCKS 🔒

• DFS tournament contrarian plays 🤐 

• The latest player news and notes 📰 

Week 10 was HUGE for my Prop Drop newsletter. At one point last Sunday we were on a 12-1 run, and we hit another 2/3 on Thursday Night. Subscribe here so you don’t miss any more of my picks!

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RBs: De’Von Achane/Raheem Mostert (MIA)

Mike McDaniel has had Achane on the practice field in full capacity so it’s looking promising for him to be back on the field this week. It seems like every time he touches the ball he’s a threat to score. Consider this: despite not playing since Week 5, Achane is 3rd in the NFL on yards gained on runs of 10+ yards with 347. That’s just 23 behind Christian McCaffrey. Insane!

As for Mostert, he’s got a nose for the end zone. He’s on pace to score the most TDs for any RB over 30 years old in a single season, so we have to include him on here with his young teammate.

The Dolphins play the Raiders this week, who rank:

• 30th in explosive run rate allowed (14.1%)

• 28th in yards per carry allowed to RBs (4.6)

• 31st in scrimmage yards per game allowed to RBs (144.8)

These two guys are explosive, and should feast against Las Vegas.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF)

Purdy is all about the efficiency. If we can predict an efficient game the numbers will usually follow. He’s now completed over 70% of his passes in 3 straight games. He’s thrown for over 11 yards per attempt in the last 2 games. Last week he was 8-for-9 for 213 yards and 3 TDs on throws that were 10+ yards downfield.

The Tampa Bay defense is 31st in the NFL allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, and that gets even worse when they don’t bring pressure. If Purdy gets a clean pocket, he should shred these guys.

WR: Terry McLaurin (WAS)

The Commanders pass volume has been terrific for these guys, but neither McLaurin or his teammates have had a real explosion game. This week, though, they get to face the New York Giants.

The G-Men allow 19.8 PPR points per game to opposing WR1s. Last time Terry saw them, he caught 6 passes for 90 yards. Plus, we know how much the Giants like to blitz. Against blitzes, Terry leads the team in target share. It’s a good strong signal for him this week.

TE: Trey McBride (ARI)

He’s emerged as a plug-and-play TE in season-long fantasy leagues, and we really like him this week too. Kyler Murray is just peppering this guy with targets, and last week he became the first Cardinals TE since 1989 to go over 100 yards in a game.

The Houston Texans are not good against the position:

• 7.1 catches allowed per game (last)

• opposing teams target TEs at a 27.4% rate

• TEs have 22.6% of the PPR points scored against Houston

QB: C.J. Stroud (HOU)

This kid is not just having a great rookie season, he’s having a great season for any quarterback. He’s been a QB1 in 6 of his last 8 games, he’s 3rd in yards per pass attempt, and he’s got an NFL-best 7.5-to-1 TD to INT ratio.

When Stroud isn’t pressured, he’s got 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 15 TDs. The Arizona Cardinals are 28th in pressure rate, getting after the opposing QB on just 31% of dropbacks.

Stroud is now the league leader in passing yards per game, according to the stats from Fantasy Life. He’s also maintaining a QBR over 100 and averaging nearly 20 fantasy PPG.

WR: Tank Dell (HOU)

Let’s follow up Stroud with Dell, who has emerged as one of the more explosive guys in the AFC. He had 14 targets last week with Nico Collins out with an injury, but even the return of Collins may not matter much. When the two share the field, Dell has a 23% target share to Collins’s 21%.

As I’ve written before, the Cardinals should be a target for us. Some of their ranks vs. opposing WRs:

• 30th in yards per target

• 24th in touchdown rate

• 32nd in catch rate (71.8%)

It’s a smash for me this week.

RB: Brian Robinson (WAS)

Robinson was huge in the passing game last week. So even though the team has been so pass-heavy, he’s got spike potential again.

Two weeks ago against the Patriots, Robinson had 19 touches, which was his most since Week 2, so the team trusts him and they’re feeding him the football. The Giants are 30th in rushing points allowed to opposing RBs, and obviously the Commanders are heavy favorites.

Play with confidence.

WR: Adam Thielen (CAR)

Thielen has always had a knack for scoring TDs. The Panthers’ coaches know this because in the red zone, he accounts for a whopping 40% of his team’s targets.

Even though he isn’t a super easy click, his big WR1 games have come when the Panthers have been blown out. That’s likely this week against Dallas, who seem to have a penchant for blowing out weaker opponents.

Then there’s the coverage tendency. Dallas plays man coverage on 40.3% of passing plays. Thielen against that look:

• 38.2% of team’s targets

• 2.51 yards per route run

• targeted on 30.2% of his routes

The tendencies are there for a big Thielen week.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 11

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QB: Kyler Murray (ARI) - $6,100

Kyler didn’t quite get there last week, but he did lift the Arizona offense in an encouraging way. The team went from 4.7 yards per play to 5.9. That’s a significant jump.

I also really like the idea of attacking the Texans defense, largely because their offense can push the pace of this game. Combined with Kyler’s price, which is low because he missed a couple of close throws last week, and I think this is a winning play.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF) - $5,800

Some of Brock’s numbers since Week 5 have been crazy. In that time span, he’s 1st in the league in yards per completion at 14.4. And the Buccaneers are looking like a target this week. In that same time span, they’re:

• MOST favorable WR EPA

• 3rd most favorable pass EPA

• Allow the most pass yards per game (319.2)

• Allow the 3rd-highest completion percentage over expectation (5.8)

So everyone can pass on Tampa Bay. What will separate Brock this week is the return of Deebo Samuel, and the fact that they have the best pass-catching RB in the league with CMC.

Tournament Pivot: $7,000 projected ownership 6-8%

RB: Tony Pollard (DAL) - $6,600

What’s nuts about Pollard is that he’s still kind of a discount at this price. He’s missed some shots around the goal line and let us down, but he’s getting the carries and he’s right there.

Even though he’s 2 for his last 13 on goal-to-go carries, he’s still getting them. And the Carolina run defense is just putrid. Maybe he can get a score from a little further out.

If he doesn’t get into the end zone this week, then maybe we’ll finally start to fade this guy for good.

RB: Brian Robinson (WAS) - $5,800

The Giants have a very bad run defense. Actually, the Giants have a very bad everything.

In addition to what I said in the previous section about Robinson, I don’t think the Giants will be able to get very much going with Tommy Devito under center. The Commanders should be able to run the football, and BRob will be the beneficiary of that.

He’s a nice cheaper option at the position this week.

Tournament Pivot: $6,600 projected ownership 16-18%

WR: Brandon Aiyuk (SF) - $7,200

This price is fairly steep, and is probably going to scare some people away on DraftKings, but if you’re going to pair Brock Purdy with someone, the Aiyuk is the guy to do it.

We’ve already cited the Tampa Bay defense and their woes against the passing game, but even within the 49ers room, Aiyuk is never the guy who’s left out when Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are also on the field. It’s usually one of them who’s left with the scraps.

It’s worth mentioning that Aiyuk is in the top-10 in weighted opportunity rating, at 73.3%. That’s a mixture of air yards and target percentage. Do with that information what you will.

WR: Marquise Brown (ARI) - $5,300

See my section on Kyler Murray above. Hollywood should thrive as he and Kyler get back into a rapport. They just missed a long TD last week, which probably would have increased both of their salaries.

The Texans have allowed 21 receptions of 20 or more yards this season as well as the 5th-highest air yards per attempt (8.7). Grab Hollywood before this whole thing clicks again.

As a bonus, you can look at Tank Dell as a nice little bring-back play.

Tournament Pivot: $8,800 projected ownership 11-13%

TE: Trey McBride (ARI) - $4,400

McBride is the guy here for Arizona for the foreseeable future. Even when Zach Ertz returns to the lineup I don’t see him as much of a threat at this point in his career. He’s probably just another body. If you need more convincing, check out everything else I said about McBride in the previous section.

Fantasy Life’s Utilization Report gives us a nice glimpse into McBride’s recent rise. Over the last 3 games his route and target percentages have exploded, and his ADOT is trending way up as well.

Tournament Pivot: $2,900 projected ownership 5-7%

DST: Washington Commanders - $3,600

The Commanders are obviously in play against the Giants.

The one issue is that if you’re looking for sacks, the pressure isn’t always there. The Giants are likely to run Saquon Barkley a lot and get the ball out of Tommy DeVito’s hands as quickly as possible. It may help to mitigate the turnover potential.

Still, they’re a perfectly viable play.

DST: Miami Dolphins - $3,200

There are a ton of good plays at defense this week. Miami is the cheapest of the optimal ones. They draw the Las Vegas Raiders who are just in complete disarray at the moment after firing the coach and installing a placeholder.

Aiden O’Connell is the starting QB for Vegas, and he’s still raw.

Tournament Pivot: $2,600 projected ownership 1-3%

🐯 Joe Burrow Knocked out of 1st Half on Thursday Night

🤕 Minnesota RB Practices… Yet to Clear Protocol

🐬 Miami Chooses to Part Ways With Chosen

⭐️ STAR WR1 Back at Practice, May Play Week 11

🚫 Titans in Turmoil? Multiple Stars Miss Thursday’s Practice

⚡️ LA’s TEs Trending in Opposite Directions

🐈‍⬛ Bryce Young on Injury Report: What’s the Status?

📈 Good News for Robinson Jr. as RB Misses Practice

🐻 Which Bears RBs will be Good to Go?

🤠 McCarthy Cryptic on RB Touch Distribution

❤️‍🩹 Tampa Bay Star Likely Limited this Week

Now it’s time to spike the stress and do the touchdown dance into the weekend.

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