💰 The number 1 VALUE pick in each round

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

Good Morning Saturday! Grab your coffee and let’s talk some late-June fantasy football!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The best draft values on the board 💰

• Why they’re the picks to go with ✅ 

• A safe approach to your draft 😃 

• The latest NFL news 🏈 

Rd 1: Austin Ekeler (LAC), ADP 8.9 RB2:

Ekeler was the non-QB PPR leader last season due to his ridiculous opportunity share and efficient production.

He was first in:

• Targets (128)

• Receptions (107)

• Total Touchdowns (18)

• Red zone touches (68)

• Fantasy points per game (21.9)

And yet, with the fantasy landscape increasingly turning toward star WRs, Ekeler is going in the back half of the first round.

Also note that he’s playing for a new contract this year.

I view him as having a higher floor than guys like Cooper Kupp and A.J. Brown, who are being drafter earlier. I don’t know how long this ADP will last, but grab it while you can.

Rd 2: A. St. Brown (DET), ADP 13.8, WR10:

Amon-Ra’s metrics put him in elite territory:

• 7th in juke rate (11.3%)

• 2nd in route win rate (52.8%)

• 9th in yards per route run (2.57)

• 10th in fantasy points per game (16.7)

The Lions were a fantasy boon last year, with a porous defense and some of the highest raw passing volume in the league.

His ADP is practically identical to that of Jaylen Waddle, who had 30 fewer targets despite playing in one more game.

It’s possible that Jared Goff’s targets are spread around a bit more with the return of Jameson Williams and the arrival of Jahmyr Gibbs, but St. Brown is still the guy in Big D.

Rd 3: Josh Jacobs (LV), ADP 28.4, RB10:

Jacobs gets his value from his ridiculous volume:

• 1st in opportunity share (83.7%)

• 1st in total rushing yards (1,653)

He had career-highs in catches (53) and receiving yards (400).

He was the RB1 in standard scoring.

Las Vegas never really gave Zamir White any serious looks, and the RB room hasn’t gotten any better.

Jacobs isn’t happy with the Raiders using the franchise tag on him, but he’s necessary to their offense, so he has leverage.

He’s a safer pick in round 3 than Breece Hall, whose outlook is clouded by his knee injury, and Calvin Ridley, who hasn’t played.

Even if his opportunity share goes down, I still like him to hit his PrizePicks prop of 1,125.5 yards. Check it out.

Rd 4: Justin Fields (CHI), ADP 49.1, QB6:

Fields finished as fantasy QB5 in points per game among those who started most of the season.

That was ahead of Lamar Jackson (ADP 34).

Fields was prolific with his legs. He was QB1 or 2 in most rushing metrics, including an insane 76.2 yards per game.

There are signs that his arm is coming along too:

• D.J. Moore has joined the Bears’ receiving corps

• Chicago invested in the improvement of the offensive line

• OC Luke Getsy recently said Fields is “light years ahead” of last season in terms of footwork and accuracy

Even though I cheated a little here since Fields is going at the start of round 5, I still think he’s a round 4 value.

He’ll pay off more than guys like Mike Williams (aging, injury-prone) and Drake London (unclear QB situation).

Rd 5: Aaron Jones (GB), ADP 54.5, RB17:

I’ve said it recently, and still believe it. Jones is undervalued.

People may be scared off by the departure of Aaron Rodgers or the fact that A.J. Dillon is a draft darling, but Jones was:

• PPR RB9

• 9th in target share (13.4%)

• 6th in total receptions (59)

So the usage in the passing game is a huge advantage, especially with a raw QB who will need an outlet down low.

But that’s not all!

Jones was also 9th in evaded tackles (80), 14th in juke rate (29.4%), and 15th in breakaway run rate (6.6%).

It adds up to a great round-5 value. Better than a guy like Kenneth Walker, who won’t get those PPR points.

Rd 6: Tyler Lockett (SEA), ADP 63.7, WR33:

Look, we all love the upside of D.K. Metcalf and his crazy athleticism, but Lockett shouldn’t be going 35 spots later.

He’s been the more consistent of the two, and finished as fantasy WR13 to Metcalf’s 16th place.

Lockett was also:

• 5th in route win rate (51.3%)

• 10th in total route wins (245)

• 5th in target separation (2.25)

So even at 30-years-old, he’s still getting open consistently.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba may nudge the target share down, but Lockett can perform above the round-6 price tag.

Take the established talent over guys like Kadarius Toney and Jordan Addison, who have yet to prove themselves.

Rd 7: Dallas Goedert (PHI), ADP 73.7, TE6:

Waiting for Goedert is a fine strategy if you missed Travis Kelce.

In ‘22:

• 7th in target share (19.4%)

• 12th in fantasy points (141.2)

• 5th in fantasy points per game (11.8)

He also ranked 4th in target quality rating, suggesting Jalen Hurts can get him the ball in a highly catchable way.

He can do something with it too, ranking 3rd in YAC (425).

There aren’t any other notable TEs to compete for targets on the Eagles’ roster, so he’ll continue his quality play.

He’s got a better QB than someone like Jahan Dotson who has a similar ADP. I think that makes him a better value here.

Rd 8: C. Sutton (DEN), ADP 92.9, WR48:

Sutton isn’t lighting any fires this summer with fantasy managers, but the signs are there for a big comeback.

He had 100% route participation, and 23.5% target share (25th).

His was 11th in deep targets (25), and 17th in unrealized air yards (693), suggesting maybe the QB was the issue.

He can still get open, with the 23rd-ranked route win rate (44.3%), including 10th vs. man coverage.

Russell WIlson didn’t help him out at all last season, as his targets ranked 63rd among all wideouts.

Wilson is in better shape this summer, with another offseason in Denver under his belt. Now he gets Sean Payton too.

Pick Sutton in round 7 rather than injury question marks Michael Thomas and teammate Javonte Williams.

Rd 9: Pat Freiermuth (PIT), 106.5, TE10:

In Big Pat’s 15 games, he finished in the top-12 TEs 9 times.

There was also some TD regression, which can course-correct for a talented guy with an improving QB.

Muth was also:

• 8th in ADOT (8.7)

• 3rd in deep targets (12)

• 9th in target share (19%)

Year 3 is typically the big breakout year for TEs, and I buy it even though it’s unabashedly unscientific.

I think grabbing Freiermuth will pay off better than fellow 9th-rounders Juju Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr.

Rd 10: Damien Harris (BUF), ADP 114.4, RB37:

Y’all forgot about Harris.

He took a backseat to Rhamondre Stevenson on the Pats, but back in ‘21 he was a TD MACHINE.

He bulldozed dudes in the red zone and scored 15 times.

Devin Singletary had 40 RZ touches for Buffalo but only scored 6 times last year, so they could use more effectiveness.

And even though he was hobbled, Harris still boasted the no. 8 juke rate last season (35%). So he can out-move the defense.

Buffalo leadership said that they want more goal line physicality.

That makes Harris the best possible value in round 10, with a high chance of scoring multiple TDs.

💪 Steeling the Line: Pittsburgh Signs OT Draft Pick

💨 Rams McVay Reveals Speedy Surprise for LA Offense

✍️ Texans Ink Alabama Beast: Ready to Roar in Houston

🏈 C-Patt's Pass Prominence: RB’s Receiving Renaissance

🦬 Buffalo Bills Lock in Key Contributors Through 2027

💥 Steelers Secure DL: Domination on the Horizon

🎥 Georgia QB Ready to Make Some Hollywood Magic

😢 Chiefs Narrowly Miss Out on Dynamic Wideout

🔨 WR Hitting the Nail on the Head for Vikings

❤️ Teammates Love QB: Packers’ Offense Heating Up

Now you can head out for your Saturday night with a little more confidence (in your fantasy football knowledge).

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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