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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Tua’s golden is arm worth drafting 💪 

• Akers ready for bell cow work in LA 🐄 

• The sneaky TE breakout in New Orleans 💥 

• NFL player news and happenings 📰 

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), ADP 92.1, QB10:

I know you all watched those clips from Tua’s big games before the concussions effectively ended his year.

• Week 2: 40.9 fantasy points, QB2

• Week 8: 29.2 fantasy points, QB1

• Week 9: 24.1 fantasy points, QB4

• Week 10: 23.4 fantasy points, QB3

What a run!

That wasn’t all. Tua’s arm was shaping up to be elite:

• 1st in yards per attempt (8.9)

• 1st in deep ball completion % (50)

• 2nd in red zone completion % (65.3)

• 1st in rating vs. man, and 3rd in rating vs. zone

He also made 40 so-called “money throws” with high degrees of difficulty, according to PlayerProfiler.

The knock on Tua (aside from head health) is the lack of ground game participation. He doesn’t have the boost in production at just 1.8 carries per game.

However, with the arm and the talented duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, I think there’s potential to compensate.

More explosive games and high fantasy finishes will follow.

J.K. Dobbins (BAL), ADP 57.2, RB18:

We’re all looking forward to see what Todd Monken can do with this collection of players. He wants to add pace.

Pending his health, Dobbins can benefit big.

He flashed at the end of '22, especially from Weeks 14-17:

In that stretch he averaged over 17 carries per game and never had fewer than 93 rush yards.

In Weeks 14-15 he went for over 120.

And he still has elite athleticism:

• 2nd in juke rate (43.5%)

• 3rd in breakaway run rate (10.9%)

It feels like there’s a lot of untapped talent just beneath the surface that’s been tamped down by injury.

This could finally be the year all of that talent is realized.

Cam Akers (LAR), ADP 65.4, RB21:

Akers got really hot at the end of the season, starting in Week 14 when he got his bell cow role back.

Had 3 top-10 weeks, including best of the slate in Week 16.

In his final 3 games:

• Routes went from 5 to 15 per game

• Carries went from 10.4 to 21 per game

Sean McVay has had some success with his RBs, and that’s translated well to fantasy football.

Darrell Henderson is no longer with the team, which will help Akers, although they did sign Sony Michel.

Despite the lack of passing game work (just 18 targets in 2022), Akers is a value at this point in the draft and has the upside to produce.

Akers scored 7 rushing TDs last season, and with the extra work, I expect he’ll find the end zone even more.

I’m picking him to get MORE than 6.5 rush TDs on PrizePicks.

Kadarius Toney (KC), ADP 74.2, WR39:

We all have to agree that Andy Reid is a great coach.

Well, he let Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman walk away, knowing he had Toney on the roster.

Juju and Hardman had 135 targets between them.

Now that Toney has his footing, he can put that good efficiency to use that he showed back in 2021:

• 1st in juke rate (66.7%)

• 19th in target separation (1.79)

• 17th in yards per route run (2.13)

He only got 20 targets in ‘22, but with some health and another year to acclimate to the Chiefs, he’ll be a part of one of the scariest offensive attacks in the NFL.

Daniel Jones (NYG), ADP 114.1, QB14:

Jones was a bona fide league winner in 2022.

In Weeks 16 and 17 he was the highest fantasy scorer in the league, with 21.8 and 36.2 points, respectively.

Here’s why he can absolutely run it back:

• 5th in accuracy rating (8.0)

• 7th in fantasy points per drop back (0.57)

• 1st in true completion percentage (75.7%)

• 3rd in red zone completion percentage (64.3%)

While the raw volume numbers weren’t great, he made up for it as the 5th-leading rusher (708 yards, 7 TDs).

The rushing upside is the QB cheat code.

The Giants added Parris Campbell and Darren Waller to go with Darius Slayton (Saquon Barkley caught 57 balls too), so the group has nowhere to go but up.

Waller especially can help out the team on 3rd downs.

Jones just got PAID by the Giants, which means the team and Brian Daboll’s staff have tons of confidence in him.

Being drafted at QB14, I do too. He’ll be a top-10 guy again.

Jayden Reed (GB), ADP 169.1, WR73:

If you like young players with versatility, lots of college reps, and a promising situation, Reed is your guy.

First, check out his best year at Michigan State, in 2021:

• 59 catches

• 26.3% target share

• 1,026 yards and 10 TDs

That year he had a respectable 2.61 yards per route run and added over 600 special teams yards in a breakout.

The Packers’ WR room isn’t exactly bustling with talent. Christian Watson should be the no. 1 guy, but after that?

The team lost Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, and Sammy Watkins, who represented 239 targets.

Romeo Doubs didn’t exactly go nuts last year, producing just 425 yards over 13 games, with only 9 RZ targets, and the 77th-ranked ADOT.

Plus, Doubs plays more of the outside receiver role most often, while Reed has played all over the field and has the acumen to burst off the line from the slot position.

It all adds up to a very real possibility that he could become Jordan Love’s WR2.

At this late of a draft position, I think it’s a no brainer to target him, especially at the expense of Doubs.

Juwan Johnson (NO), ADP 171.7, TE21:

The Saints’ offense may have the widest range of outcomes in the league, with Derek Carr stepping in at QB, the uncertainty around Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave’s development, and Michael Thomas’s long-awaited return.

Johnson will be right in the middle of it.

In 2022, he popped off in a few ways:

• 4th in TDs (7)

• 6th in ADOT (9.4)

• 9th in air yards (609)

• 9th in unrealized air yards (296)

• 12th in yards per reception (12.1)

While the team did sign Foster Moreau, I believe Johnson has the inside track.

Some managers will swear by Taysom Hill, but he’s such an anomaly and it’s always unclear how he’ll be deployed.

As a bonus, Johnson and his wife just welcomed their first baby the other day. Congrats to them.

Hopefully the karma continues into the season and we can benefit as fantasy football players.

✍️ DeAndre Decides: Signs Big Deal with AFC Team

🐆 Jaguars Lock Up TE With Three-Year Deal

🎰 Vegas RB Faces Uncertain Future: No Long-Term Deal

🩼 Patriots' WR Battling Soft Tissue Injury

💨 Tyreek 2K? Dolphins WR Sets Lofty Goal

🏈 Seahawks' INT Machine Set for Preseason Return

🤷‍♂️ Mac Jones: A Tale of Two Opinions in New England

💰 Mixon Takes Pay Cut, Bengals Save Cap Space

🏠 At Home, Baker? Bucs Could Be Long-Term Destination

✈️ Becton Slims Down: Competes for Starting Spot in NY

See you tomorrow for another TD Tuesday!

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