❌ DO NOT draft these 4 running backs + Thursday PrizePicks & Rankings Update

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• FREE Fantasy Football Rankings UPDATE!

1. Ronald Jones (KC), ADP 128.8, RB40:

Jones’s usage plummeted in ‘21.

Carries went from 192 to 101.

Opportunity share went from 60.2% to 25.1%.

Opportunity is earned (usually), but it makes sense when you look under the hood...

His advanced stats are uninspiring too:

• No.39 juke rate (20.7%)

• No.36 true yards per carry (4.1)

• No.40 breakaway run rate (3%)

And when Fournette was out:

• Week 16: 20 att, 65 yards (3.3 avg)

• Week 17: 10 att, 26 yards (2.6 avg)

Not a great look for a guy trying to regain his status.

Edwards-Helaire already had a 57% opportunity share.

And KC added Jerick McKinnon too.

Sure, Jones may get a boost from a new situation.

But I’m sitting this one out.

2. Damien Harris (NE), ADP 95.6, RB31:

He had a strong '21, BUT...

Was largely TD-dependent (15),

More importantly, he's rarely involved in the passing game (18 receptions).

Expect the 48.7% opportunity share to decrease.

Why?

Rhamondre Stevenson and his No. 4 juke rate are waiting in the wings.

Stevenson has a higher ceiling and is poised for more work.

Also:

• Veteran James White is back.

• Rookie Pierre Strong Jr. was drafted.

It adds up to too many variables for Harris. Expect a decline.

PrizePicks has his over/under at 850.5 rushing yards and 8.5 rush TDs for '22.

I'm parlaying the under on both.

If you disagree... feel free to fade me.

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3. James Robinson (JAC), ADP 168.6, RB52:

Multiple factors harm his outlook.

First is the torn achilles, which is not yet healed according to reports.

The numbers also reveal some issues…

In ‘21, he was only PPR RB25, DESPITE:

• Good juke rate rank (10th)

• Good breakaway run rate rank (16th)

• A big opportunity share (66.5%, 12th)

Less than inspiring.

The Jags’ backfield is looking crowded...

Travis Etienne is expected to emerge.

They drafted Snoop Conner.

The injury, metrics, and the crowded backfield make Robinson a risky pick.

4. Rashaad Penny (SEA), ADP 115.6, RB37:

Yes, he was electric down the stretch!

In weeks 14-18 he proved his talent:

• 20.4 carries per game.

• No. 2 in true yards per carry (5.2)

• No. 1 in breakaway run rate (12.6%)

He also earned a new contract.

So why stay away?

Well, Seattle’s total offense was in the bottom half of the league (20th)

WITH Russell Wilson.

Now it’s Geno Smith or Drew Lock...

Yikes.

Rookie Kenneth Walker III has some promising college metrics:

• 3rd in yards after contact

• 2nd in missed tackles forced

He should take opportunities away from Penny.

Don’t forget the health issue.

Penny missed 30 out of the first 64 games of his career.

Last season’s stretch run was great.

But the sample size is too small.

Tread lightly.

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- Joe