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🤑 The No. 1 VALUE in each round

🤑 The No. 1 VALUE in each round

Win your league with these 12 targets

Joe Holka
August 11, 2023

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

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Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

A VALUE of a draft target in 12 rounds 🎯
A breakdown of stats and trends for each 📊
Players to draft at every offensive position ✍️
NFL player news from the preseason 🏈

Rd. 1: A.J. Brown (PHI), ADP 11.8, WR8:

Let’s assume you don’t have one of the top 5 picks.

In that case, Brown provides the upside of any of the guys going at the very top of drafts.

He was WR6 overall (17.6 PPR per game), and had 7 weeks where he ranked in the top 15.

You’re also getting terrific production:

2nd in total TDs (11)
4th in air yards (1,772)
2nd in yards after catch (543)
2nd in yards per route run (3.01)

Playing alongside DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will ensure defensive backfields can never quite key on him.

If you can snag Brown late in the 1st, you got a solid WR1.

Rd. 2: Tony Pollard (DAL), ADP 17.9, RB5:

Looking at Pollard’s efficiency numbers coupled with the fact that Ezekiel Elliott has left Dallas makes him the best value currently going in the second round.

He was 8th last year in fantasy points per game in (15.6), but that was on just the 34th opportunity share (48.1%).

That efficiency tho:

5th in yards per touch (5.9)
2nd in yards per reception (9.5)
4th in yards per route run (1.82)
4th in breakaway run rate (8.8%)
8th in yards created per touch (3.30)

He’s now 100% healthy after being injured late last year.

So Tony is the Big RB in the Big D.

Rd. 3: D. Hopkins (TEN), ADP 32.2, WR17:

Hopkins absolutely has some star power left in the tank.

Over 9 games in ‘22 he earned the 2nd air yards share (43.5%) and was 9th in fantasy PPG (16.9).

And if you think his age will prevent him from getting open, he was 4th in route win rate (51.8%), which includes a stellar 47% win rate vs. man (2nd).

The situation is better than you think.

Treylon Burks is the guy who will line up opposite of Hopkins and has the talent to draw coverage.

Ryan Tannehill isn’t a world beater, but he is fairly accurate. He has enough to boost a guy with Hopkins’s talent.

And while the Titans do tend to run more than most teams, a lot of that is due to Derrick Henry, who has a ton of miles and a punishing running style.

Hopkins should rise the entire Titan offense.

Rd. 4: Joe Mixon (CIN), ADP 44.2, RB15:

If this ADP starts to creep up then he could lose the value.

However, Mixon’s legal issues seem to have blown over, and the Bengals have stood behind him.

No one is behind him on the depth chart, however, save for rookie Chase Brown, who has looked good in camp but remains an unproven asset.

The team gave him plenty of opportunity in ‘22:

6th in RZ touches (46)
7th in target share (13.9%)
7th in opportunity share (73.7%)

He wasn’t as efficient as in the past, but still finished as RB10 and had 6 top-11 finishes in 15 games.

The offense itself is one of the most productive in the league, which we all know matters when choosing these guys.

So even with a decreased efficiency, the ceiling is high.

Mixon gained 814 rush yards in 14 games last season, and I’m banking on health to get him a few more.

So I’m picking MORE THAN 825.5 on PrizePicks.

Rd. 5: D. Johnson (PIT), ADP 56 WR28:

Johnson is a target magnet for Pittsburgh.

In fact, he’s one of just 3 WRs to see 140+ targets for 3 straight years. (per @AlexCaruso).

In 2022 he commanded the 13th target share (27%) and the 6th-most total targets in the league (147).

BUT…

He was 2nd in unrealized air yards (875) and didn’t score a single touchdown. That’s a statistical anomaly, and it will most certainly change in ‘23.

It’s not just raw targets either:

10th in RZ targets (18)
4th in juke rate (15.1%)
11th in total route wins (240)

As the Steeler offense played together last season, they continued to improve all year. Kenny Pickett and the O-line got better under the staff of Mike Tomlin.

It adds up to a terrific round 5 pick that can provide a much higher return when he scores more TDs in ‘23.

Rd. 6: Justin Fields (CHI), ADP 69.5, QB6:

At this point, Pat Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and maybe even Joe Burrow are off the board.

Fields has the upside to top them all.

In ‘22, he was QB5 in fantasy PPG (20.7), and 1st in rush yards by a LOT. He gained 1,143 for the 2nd most EVER by a QB.

Last year’s 2nd place rusher was Jackson, with 764.

So, all Fields needs to do to reach his ceiling is improve his passing work, which he’s been working on. The highlights leaking out of camp look promising so far.

The team shored up the O-line and added D.J. Moore in free agency, giving Fields a true WR1.

So, a couple of breaks here and there will make him this year’s Jalen Hurts, and provide tremendous value in round 6.

Rd. 7: D. Waller (NYG), ADP 78.9, TE7:

Waller is shaping up to be my favorite TE draft target.

As Daniel Jones has improved all aspects of his game under Brian Daboll, the Giants have tried to surround him with talent.

They remedied the Saquon Barkley contract situation and brought in Waller, who will undoubtedly help on 3rd downs (NYG was 22nd in 3rd down conversion rate in ‘22).

He’s one of the most athletic TEs of all time, still showing it for a so-so Raiders squad:

1st in ADOT (13.6)
1st in deep targets (13)
2nd in yards per reception (13.9)
11th in yards per route run (1.69)

With guys like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and T.J. Hockenson off the board 3 rounds ago, Waller is a steal.

Rd. 8: A. Gibson (WAS), ADP 87.3, RB28:

Gibson took a bit of a backseat in 2022, but the year before he carried the ball 258 times and added 42 receptions.

Now that Eric Bieniemy is running the Washington offense, he has a chance to reset and get some of that volume back.

He was still very good in key passing areas:

9th in yards per route run (1.66)
12th in yards per reception (7.7)

Now J.D. McKissic and his 13.9% target share are gone from Washington, so Gibson’s own 12% share can and should rise.

When he was totally healthy last year, he scored 12.8 PPR points per game, more than Travis Etienne, Kenneth Walker, and D’Andre Swift (stat per @SalVetriDFS).

Gibson has a chance to DEMOLISH this round 8 ADP.

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Rd. 9: J. McKinnon (KC), ADP 105, RB36:

McKinnon has made the most of his time as a member of the Chiefs and teammate of Patrick Mahomes.

He led the league in reception TDs by a running back despite a pedestrian opportunity share, and showed off immense talent:

9th in receptions (56)
4th in receiving yards (512)
8th in yards per route run (1.67)
1st in yards created per touch (5.56)
1st in fantasy points per opportunity (1.37)

The offense is going to remain potent as long as Mahomes is still running it, and even if McKinnon falls behind Isiah Pachecho on the depth chart, he’s a proven veteran with talent.

Drafting at this point feels like a good deal.

Rd. 10: N. Collins (HOU), ADP 118.5, WR53:

Collins is value in round 10 because he is his team’s WR1.

C.J. Stroud is on the inside track to start, and he’s loved throwing to Collins all summer long.

He was able to use his considerable size to make tough catches:

4th in true catch rate (112.1%)
2nd in contested catch rate (66.7%)

His best stretch came from Weeks 10-13, when he earned 9 targets per game and had 2 weeks as a top 25 WR.

Brandin Cooks is gone, opening up 93 targets in the Houston offense, and leaving Robert Woods, and John Metchie as the main target competition for Collins.

While I do like those guys to an extent, Collins is the favorite target down there, and has a shot to smash this ADP.

Draft for the potential value.

Rd. 11: G. Dulcich (DEN), ADP 130.2, TE15:

Sean Payton plans to use Dulcich as a “joker” TE, and line him up all over the formation to create mismatches.

I’m trusting he knows what he’s doing considering his history of getting great production out of the position.

For his part, Dulcich flashed incredible potential last year:

3rd in ADOT (10.6)
3rd in deep targets (12)
9th in yards per catch (12.5)
7th in air yards share (18.6%)
7th in target separation (2.36)

Even if you miss out on all the TEs drafted so far, you could be alright waiting for Dulcich.

Rd. 12: A. Rodgers (NYJ), ADP 138.5, QB15:

Rodgers is no longer a sexy fantasy pick, but grabbing him as a QB2 in round 12 is worth it, and as long as he’s on the field he has a chance to outperform expectations.

The guy can still make some dazzling plays.

And even in his down year he was:

7th in TDs (26)
12th in money throws (22)
11th in passing yards (3,695)
5th in red zone completion percentage (63%)

He seems happy with the Jets so far, going as far as to comment that he’d like it to be a long partnership.

And the cast around him is stronger this year, with guys like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to help make the offense hum, along with his old buddies Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Again, I wouldn’t bank on Rodgers as your first option, but at this point in the draft I wouldn’t be afraid either.