🚫 Najee should NOT be your 1st round pick

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Your first round pick is essential to your success in fantasy football.

It's the stud you build your team around.

Najee Harris (PIT), ADP 10.4, RB6 is considered one of the safer 1st rounders,

But I'm not sold. Here's why:

Harris was PPR RB8 w/ 17.7 PPG in '21, but he needed an immense workload to do it.

He led all RBs in touches (381) and opportunity share (86.4%).

The truth is, he wasn't very efficient.

Consider some stats (per Player Profiler)...

Underwhelming 3.8 true yards per carry ranked 53rd among RBs.

Factor in the passing game and 4.4 yards per touch didn't even crack the top 40 (41).

While he evaded the 2nd-most tackles in the league, it was mainly due to volume.

3.9% breakaway run rate was just 28th

Didn't get the rock as much inside the 20, either. 38 red zone touches ranked 21st.

Add it all up and Harris's points per opportunity was .75 - 48th best.

While individual EPA isn't everything, Najee's was dismal.

It was -20.6 (144th)!

Consider the situation in Pittsburgh. Offense has a lot of mouths to feed.

Johnson, Claypool, Pickens, and Freiermuth all have some summer fantasy buzz.

Will the volume still be there?

Steelers coaches have talked about reducing Najee's workload on certain downs (per ProFootballTalk).

And as of mid-July, rumors were that they were interested in adding a veteran FA, such as Latavius Murray (@MarkKaboly of the Athletic).

The specter should spook Harris backers.

And of course, new QB could always cap the offense. Unclear if 5.5 targets per game is sustainable.

One more note about touches...

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders has studied the number of touches that seem to lead to injury or decline in next season.

That number seems to be about 390.

(@FO_ASchatz)

Including the playoffs, Harris had 395!

Prize Picks set his O/U for rush yards at 1200.5, just about his total from '21.

Considering these factors, it's an easy under pick for me.

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