WRs to Target or Fade

Today’s list is a yay or nay call on 6 difficult to rank wide receivers… in two minutes or less.

TARGET: Josh Downs (IND), WR49

Downs was quietly targeted on 29.4% of his routes. He also ranked 5th in route win rate.
But the real ceiling showed up in games with Joe Flacco, where he posted a 25.7% target share, 2.38 yards per route run, and averaged 15.5 points per game… all on pace for WR21 numbers. That stretch also featured a 32.4% first-read share, which ranked 9th among all WRs during that sample.

So if Daniel Jones wins the job, or Richardson levels up after offseason work with Josh Allen’s private QB coach, Downs can’t miss at WR49. This is a slot dominator in a suddenly open-volume offense. And he’s one QB switch away from every-week utility.

Fade: Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI), WR19

Harrison’s rookie hype was too hot to handle. He ranked 107th in separation. And he was 39th in fantasy points per game despite ranking 27th in expected points per game. He also had 10 full games where he failed to reach 50 receiving yards. That all points to some concerning efficiency.

Arizona hasn’t added any meaningful pieces, but that may not matter if their scheme stays the same. They often left MHJ stranded outside the numbers with no creativity or motion. So, if he can’t win solo, and he won’t be schemed free creatively, why are we drafting him as a WR2?

TARGET: Jauan Jennings (SF), WR43

Jennings ranked 11th in yards per route run and posted a 25% target share when Brandon Aiyuk missed time last season. But now? Deebo is off the roster, Aiyuk’s recovering from ACL surgery, and Jennings (coming off a 77-catch, 975-yard breakout) is battling for full-time WR1 usage in a productive passing attack. He already averaged 14.9 PPR points from Week 3 onward last year, including a monster 46.5-point game.

So while consistency remains a concern, opportunity won’t be. San Francisco has one of the easiest passing schedules in the leage this year, and if Jennings stays healthy, he could be this season’s most obvious mid-round steal.

FADE: Chris Godwin (TB), WR34

Godwin was very good before his injury, averaging over 7 catches and 82 yards per game. But there were some red flags. Over 62% of his yards came after the catch and his 5.7 air yards per target were a career-low. Now he’s not even back from his ACL recovery and the Tampa WR room is much more crowded than it was a year ago.There’s also a high chance that Baker Mayfield’s numbers regress this season after out-performing nearly every statistical expectation in 2024.

So, with all that new competition, the injury, and a new offensive coordinator, let someone else take the risk on Godwin.

TARGET: Jayden Higgins (HOU), WR53

Higgins had an 87-catch season in college, then was drafted 34th overall to start opposite Nico Collins in Houston’s 2-WR sets. His 2024 tape showed elite contested catch skills, and he’ll face CB2s all year while Collins draws top coverage. But this Texans offense faces the 6th-toughest passing schedule. Still, the coaching staff has a clear plan: mismatch Higgins off coverage and feed him big-play chances while Stroud lets it rip.

So at WR53, you’re betting on a top-40 draft capital rookie in an explosive system with a franchise QB due for a bounceback year. Higgins is the kind of Round 12 swing that wins real leagues… if he pops, you’ll know by Week 2.

Tap HERE for a big-name FADE

So that’s it. Know how to treat these wideouts on draft day and enjoy a winning season!

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.