RBs to Target/Fade

Today I’ve zoomed in on 6 RBs that are difficult to rank. Here’s how to treat them at their current ADP… in two minutes or less.

🎯 Target Zach Charbonnet (SEA), RB40

Charbonnet is one of the league’s most productive insurance backs, averaging 18.3 touches and 100.3 total yards in games Kenneth Walker missed. But this year, Seattle hired Klint Kubiak to run a more balanced, ball-control attack, and Charbonnet’s skill set fits perfectly: he ranked 9TH in missed tackles forced per attempt and added 75 catches over the last two seasons, more than both Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs

So with the NFL’s 7th-easiest rushing schedule and proven RB1 production when given volume, Charbs is not just a bench stash. He’s a locked-in league winner the moment Walker misses time.

🚫 Fade Joe Mixon (HOU), RB20

Mixon’s fantasy profile is still built on volume… he handled 79.6% of Houston’s backfield touches when active last year. But the cracks are getting hard to ignore. He’s entering his age-29 season coming off a foot injury that’s already cost him “multiple weeks” of training camp, and the Texans just added Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks for depth.

So even if he’s “ready” for Week 1, there’s a real chance his early-season workload is capped. Add in the NFL’s 7th-toughest rushing schedule and last year’s alarming efficiency drop (38th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 29th in yards after contact per attempt), and you’re paying Round 5 prices for a back who scored just 6.0 fantasy points per game over the final month of 2024. The name value says safe floor — the underlying profile says RB2/3 risk.

🎯 Target Jordan Mason (MIN), RB38

Mason was Top-6 in explosive run rate, averaged 5.2 YPC, and ripped off runs of 10+ yards on 15% of carries, the 3rd-best rate among qualifying backs. But he’s not just a breakaway threat. Minnesota traded for him after seeing him rush for 100 yards and a TD against them last year, and camp reports point to a “genuine co-RB1 deal” with Aaron Jones.

So in a top-10 scoring offense where he could see goal-line work from day one and top-12 RB upside if Jones misses time, Mason is one of the rare Round 9 picks with both weekly flex value and league-winning contingency.

🚫 Fade D’Andre Swift (CHI), RB21

Swift’s career has always been more about splash plays than consistent down-to-down production, but 2024 was his least efficient season yet. He was dead last in rush success rate on zone plays, and outside the top-32 RBs in explosive run rate, yards after contact, and missed tackles forced per attempt. But he still ranked 7th in opportunity share and 10th in carries, suggesting the box-score volume hid the lack of juice.

So while reuniting with Ben Johnson in Chicago should improve efficiency, he’ll still have Roschon Johnson as a bigger-bodied threat to siphon short-yardage and goal-line work. And even with the NFL’s 5th-easiest rushing schedule, this is still a player coming off a career-low 3.8 yards per carry who hasn’t cracked the top-12 RB ranks in three years. At his Round 5/6 ADP, you’re paying for upside that his running style, and role, just doesn’t consistently deliver.

🎯 Target Tony Pollard (TEN), RB28

Pollard was one of only five RBs in 2024 to average 16+ carries and 3.5+ targets per game, giving him one of the most secure workloads in fantasy. But his usage spikes even higher when Tyjae Spears is out, jumping from 16.0 touches to 23.5 touches per game. And guess what? Spears is already dealing with a preseason leg injury.

So with Pollard locked in as RB1 on Tennessee’s first depth chart, running behind an offense expected to improve with Cam Ward, he’s a clear Round 7 steal who could open the year in a full three-down role.

Tap HERE for a Big-Name Fade

So know how to evaluate these players and win your draft…. As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.