Late-Round Breakouts

Your draft isn’t over after Round 8. Here are 5 guys going AFTER pick 100 that have a good shot to break out this season … in two minutes or less.

Tucker Kraft (GB), ADP 114.2, TE11

Tucker Kraft ranked 2nd in yards per route run, 2nd in yards per reception, and 5th in yards after the catch among tight ends last season. But he averaged just 2.9 receptions per game, with 5 or fewer targets in 14 of 18 games, which makes his TE9 finish in total points all the more absurd. He was essentially the most efficient tight end in the game. So when the Packers’ head coach says they need to “do a better job featuring the tight end”, you pay attention. He’s already more explosive after the catch than George Kittle, and with even a slight bump in volume, Kraft could destroy his TE11 price. He’s the best tight end that everyone forgets to draft.

Keon Coleman (BUF), ADP 122.8, WR49

Coleman led the Bills in end zone targets, ranked 3rd in yards per catch among WRs with 50+ targets, and had a 15.2 ADOT. But his route profile was ultra one-dimensional: 38.6% of his targets were go routes, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL, and he finished 103rd in target separation. Not great. So he’s not a safe pick, but if he wins more routes or expands his usage tree, Coleman becomes Josh Allen’s clearest downfield alpha. And at WR49, that’s exactly the kind of volatile breakout you want to bet on. It’s a high-ceiling dice roll with a cannon-armed quarterback behind it.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS), ADP 108.7, RB35

“Bill” Croskey-Merritt ranked 1st among incoming RBs in yards per inside zone run in college, which fits exactly the scheme Kliff Kingsbury wants to run. He also drew comparisons to Brian Robinson… before Robinson was traded. But the Commanders didn’t just signal trust with their words, they sat Bill in the final preseason game alongside Austin Ekeler while backups played for jobs. So not only has he won the early-down role, but he also brings the best pass protection profile of any rookie back, logging the 2nd-most pass pro reps in the class with just a 5% pressure rate allowed. He’s already locked into the rotation. He might be the Week 1 starter.

J.J. McCarthy (MIN), ADP 143, QB19

McCarthy steps into a Kevin O’Connell system that’s finished Top-8 in fantasy QB scoring for three straight seasons, with Kirk Cousins, Nick Mullens, Josh Dobbs, and Sam Darnold all producing at fantasy-relevant levels. But McCarthy is only 22 years old, returning from a torn meniscus, and will be without Jordan Addison for the first 3 games due to suspension. So he’s not a plug-and-play starter… yet. But he’s playing behind upgraded protection, throwing to Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, and offers legit rushing upside with 8 touchdown runs in his final two college seasons. Stash him early, he’s built to take over late.

Darnell Mooney (ATL), ADP 142.2, WR52

Even though he’s going to miss some time early, Mooney is still a solid late target. He ranked 6th in explosive rating, 10th in deep targets, and saw a 92.9% snap share in a Falcons offense that made no significant WR additions. He’s also reportedly week-to-week at this point, so there’s no evidence to suggest he’s going to miss a significant portion of the season. So if he’s healthy by Week 1, you’re getting a locked-in WR2 who put up 64-992-5 last year and averaged 1.89 yards per route run (both career highs). If Penix is real, Mooney reflects a SCREAMING value as WR52.

So keep these players on your radar during your last-minute drafts this weekend… As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe