🔑 KEY Plays for Fantasy and DFS

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It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 10,000+ fellow degenerates.

It’s a good thing Thursday Night Football exists because you know what they say: seven days without football makes one weak.

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• MUST START options for season-long AND DFS ✅ 

• The BEST DraftKings plays of the week 💲 

• Some sneaky pivot plays for tournaments 🤫 

• The week’s most fantasy-relevant news and notes 📰 

Each week this NFL season, I’ll be chatting with Rich Hribar from Sharp Football Analysis about some of the best matchups and DFS plays in the league.

Check out my YouTube channel for the videos.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

The Sun God very rarely lets us down.

In Week 1, he stepped right back into his role as the no. 1 guy on the Lions. He ran 100% of the team’s routes, and had 28% of the team targets.

His usage, courtesy of Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life:

The matchup is also intriguing. Seattle tends to get burned between the numbers, as evidenced by Matthew Stafford’s line:

• 16 of 22, 172 yards

Basically, this is a tailor-made spot for Amon-Ra.

QB: Josh Allen (BUF)

He struggled against the Jets in Week 1, but that team consistently has his number. Against LITERALLY everyone else his yards per attempt jumps from 5.8 to 7.7.

He’s also got a great matchup. The Raiders gave up the most yards per drive in the league last week after ranking 28th in passing points allowed throughout all of ‘22.

For Allen himself, he gets 23.8 fantasy PPG when he’s at home and favored by more than a TD — the Bills are 9 point faves.

WR: Gabe Davis (BUF)

Stack Davis with Allen if you can. The Raiders ran zone coverage on 85% of passing snaps in Week 1, and got toasted. Check out Gabe’s splits against man vs. zone.

Against man:

• 13.3% target share

• 0.72 yards per route run

Against zone:

• 18.2% target share

• 1.81 yards per route run

So this is a bounce back spot for Davis and his QB.

WR: Deebo Samuel (SF)

We saw Brandon Aiyuk take a big step forward in Week 1, which was pretty much expected, but don’t sleep on Deebo yet.

He was targeted on 20.6% of his routes and earned 25% of the 49ers’ total targets, and he typically feasts when he plays the Rams. Check out his averages vs. them since 2020:

• 4.1 receptions

• 74.2 receiving yards

• 4 total receiving TDs, and 2 rushing TDs

The Rams play a LOT of zone, and Deebo can beat that too. For his career, he’s targeted on 27.7% of his routes vs. zone.

TE: Darren Waller (NYG)

The perception of Waller might be a little skewed after the Giants took that beating in Week 1, but his usage was encouraging.

In the first half of that debacle, Waller ran a route on 87% of the team’s drop backs, and earned a 42% target share before taking a back seat in the 2nd half. It bears out what they’ve been saying all summer: the passing game will run through him.

The Cardinals are also historically poor against the TE position, which bodes well this week.

WR: Mike Williams (LAC)

Big Mike seems have a different role this season!

He ran 43.1% of his snaps from the slot in Week 1. His career average in that spot is 13%. So, he’s going to see a lot more efficiency in his targets and fewer outside contested catches.

The Chargers also won’t be able to run the ball like they did in Week 1, and Austin Ekeler might miss the game.

Tennessee allowed New Orleans WRs to catch 18 of 22 targets for 262 yards, 179 of which were on downfield throws.

This is just a great spot for the Charger wideouts.

Every single week this season, I’ll post videos of my chats with Jake Ciely of The Athletic, and fantasy football guru Ryan Hodge. We discuss the best DraftKings plays and GPP tournament pivotsof the week ahead.

If you want to check these out, subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Justin Herbert (LAC) - $7,000

Herbert was better in Week 1 than a lot of people want to acknowledge. Losing will do that sometimes.

The truth is that Herbert averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, which was better than his average from 2022.

This week’s opponent, the Titans, allowed the league-high 11.5 air yards per attempt in Week 1, and that was to Derek Carr. Who’s going to argue that Herbert should be able to match that against this defense?

Here’s the game hub from FantasyLife, which has a favorable set of numbers for the Chargers’ offense overall:

Keep the faith in a guy who’s been producing now for a few years and has a great cast of skill players around him.

Tournament Pivot: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300), projected ownership 7-10%

RB: Kenneth Walker (SEA) - $5,800

People were worried about Walker coming into the season, healing up from being injured, Week 1 quelled the fears.

Pete Carroll typically likes to roll with a guy as a bell cow, and Walker saw 16 of the 22 backfield touches, boxing out Zach Charbonnet. That’s good news going forward.

And the matchup is terrific. The Lions (Jared Goff in particular) do better at home compared to the road, so this one has the potential to become a shootout.

Tournament Pivot: Saquon Barkley ($8,000), projected ownership 10-15%

WR: Keenan Allen (LAC) - $7,100

We’ve already covered why this is a great matchup for the Chargers, and Allen has been their iron man for a long time.

Yes, I like Mike Williams, but there’s always the injury concern that makes a lot of people gun shy on him. Allen is a guy you can trust to stay on the field a little bit more than Big Mike.

Tournament Pivot: Zay Jones ($4,700), projected ownership 10-15%

TE: Jake Ferguson (DAL) - $3,300

It’s not a great week for tight ends on the main slate, so Ferguson is a really good option if you’re paying down in DFS.

The numbers are skewed because of their beatdown of the Giants, but Dak Prescott was looking Ferguson’s way a lot in the first half of that game. There’s talk that he’s not only going to replace Dalton Schultz in that offense, but possibly emerge as their new Jason Witten, a reliable guy who gets open and makes the plays.

I expect he’ll be the Cowboys’ number 3 target soon.

Tournament Pivot: George Kittle ($5,300), projected ownership 3-6%

DST: Dallas Cowboys - $4,000

This is the option if you want to pay up at DST. You won’t get another dominant performance at the magnitude of last week, but those stars are buzzing right now and they will get to face Zach Wilson rather than Aaron Rodgers.

Tournament Pivot: Baltimore Ravens ($2,800), projected ownership 4-8%

All first time users that deposit and use Promo Code: JHS100 will receive a 100% instant deposit match up to $100.

If you deposit $100, PrizePicks will give you $100. If you deposit $50, PrizePicks will give you $50.

• Darren Waller MORE THAN 54.5 receiving yards: He ran a route on 87% of plays and earned an impressive 42% target share before resting in Week 1’s blowout loss.

• Kenneth Walker MORE THAN 61.5 rush yards: Pete Carroll Loves to ride his bell cows. Walker got 16 of 22 backfield touches in Week 1, and the matchup with Detroit has the potential to be a shootout.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE THAN 77.5 receiving yards: He ran 100% of the routes and got 28% of their targets. Seattle is vulnerable between the numbers.

• Nick Chubb MORE THAN 76.5 rush yards: He’s going to get the usage no matter how you slice it. 22 touches in Week 1 is a nice tone to set.

• George Kittle MORE THAN 40.5 receiving yards: He underperformed based on his usage metrics in Week 1, and the 49ers are favored by 8.

Say you deposit and play $10 on the 5-leg entry above:

• 5 correct “more/less” projections you win $100

• 4 correct “more/less” projections you win $20

• 3 correct “more/less” projections you win $14

It’s as simple as that! Don’t forget to check out 💥 My favorite PrizePicks & Bets this week.

🚑 Puka Nacua's Oblique Issue: Critical Friday Ahead

🦅 Eagles' Inactives: Gainwell Out, Swift in Spotlight

🏈 Vikings' OL Active, Bradbury Sidelined

🔥 Broncos' DE to Miss Weeks with Hip Issue

🤷‍♂️ Titans' Tyjae Spears Upgraded: Role Uncertain

🤕 Meyers Remains Sidelined: Target Shift in Vegas

👟 STAR Returns: Raiders' Boost

🚀 Joey Bosa's Hamstring Woes: Chargers Concerned

➢ Travis Kelce Watch: Chiefs TE Status

🔒 Jerry Jeudy Upgraded to 'Full': Broncos' Boost

It’s almost the weekend yet again. May your Friday feel as easy as a helmets-only walkthrough. Enjoy the games!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

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