💥 Fantasy Starts and DFS Matchups

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It’s Friday: time to kick off the weekend with a play sheet full of winning bets and fantasy plays. Let’s get to it!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The BEST Week 13 fantasy matchups 🏆

• WINNING DraftKings picks 🤑 

• Lesser-owned DFS pivots 😈 

• The latest NFL player news 🏈 

My Prop Drop newsletter started in Week 6 and unlike the Patriots and Panthers, we CAN’T be stopped! We’re officially 122-69 on our prop picks. Get in on the action, and follow me on Twitter for a chance at CASH giveaways when we win.

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QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

Tua’s obviously had a great season, but believe it or not, he’s been outside of the top-10 QB scorers since Week 6. I expect that to change this week. Without Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Dak Prescott on the main Sunday slate, Tua is my guy.

The Washington defense is a cure-all for opposing QBs. Ten in a row have scored more fantasy points against them than they were averaging coming into the game. Nine of those QBs had top-10 scoring weeks (Mac Jones being the one exception). Seven of those QBs were in the top 5.

Fantasy Life’s Game Hub looks about as favorable as possible for the Dolphins’ offense. The Commanders rank last or near last in the league in allowing points per game, passing yards, total yards, and yards per attempt. Tua should have no trouble racking up stats this week.

RB: Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren (PIT)

Much like the Commanders represent a great plus matchup for Miami’s passing game, the Cardinals do the same for Pittsburgh’s RBs.

After allowing 287 yards and 3 TDs to the Rams’ backfield last week, Arizona is 31st in the NFL in allowing 151.4 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs. The reason I’m listing both Steelers backs is because they’ve enjoyed a fairly even split over the last 4 weeks.

The difference is that Harris seems to get the goal line touches where Warren is the explosive guy who can maybe score from a little further out. As a result, I like Harris more in smaller fields and Warren in smaller tournament play.

RB: Bijan Robinson (ATL)

We finally got the Bijan explosion last week, with 27.3 PPR points and an overall RB3 finish. The talent is finally starting to show itself.

This week he gets to face the Jets, who just can not score enough points to keep up with anyone, so the Falcons should play through their backs. Even sharing the load with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, Bijan is an interesting play.

In addition to him leading the league in carries to go for 10 or more yards (16%), he gets a Jets defense that isn’t necessarily bad, but does have some favorable metrics due to opposing RB volume:

• 31st in yards from scrimmage allowed to RBs

• 31st in number of backfield touches faced per game

• 28th in PPR receiving points allowed per game to RBs (11.8)

With Bijan starting to cook a little, I like his chances this week.

RB: Devin Singletary (HOU)

Even as Houston’s opponent, Denver, has enjoyed a nice turnaround lately, their run defense is still poor. Let’s be fair and take out the 70-point Miami game. In that case Denver is STILL:

• 32nd in yards per carry allowed to RBs (5.3)

• 29th in success rate against backfield run plays

• 31st in rate of RB touches to go for a 1st down or TD

Even with Dameon Pierce back in the lineup last week, Singletary seems to have taken over. He got 82% of the snaps and ran 32 routes to Pierce’s 5. He’s the Texan to go with.

RB: Rachaad White (TB)

White played a great game last week. He got 87% of the snaps, 95% of the backfield touches, and 110 total scrimmage yards. This was despite supposedly locking up his knee at Friday’s practice.

Over the last 6 games, his numbers look even better. He’s averaging 98.8 yards per game. The Panthers aren’t exactly stout against RBs, allowing 19.9 rushing points per game. Running backs have scored 42.6% of the fantasy points against them on the season.

White is a guy with the arrow pointing up, especially this week.

RB: Zack Moss (IND)

In the 3 games Moss played without Jonathan Taylor, he had 100%, 84%, and 86% of the backfield touches. He’s also been super efficient on the year. He’s 7th in the NFL in carries to go for 10+ yards (12%).

In the first game against Tennessee, he had 195 yards and 2 TDs playing WITH Taylor. All of it makes him the chalkiest guy of Week 13, and maybe the chalkiest guy of the year.

WR: Michael Pittman (IND)

If we were to compare the usage and ADOT of all NFL WRs, Pittman looks almost identical to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who no one would argue is a fantasy WR1. So why don’t we talk about Pittman?

In the last 4 games (and 8 of the last 11), he has at least 8 catches. And Tennessee is allowing a league-high 71% catch rate to opposing WRs. Considering the matchup and the use, Pittman is a terrific pivot off of all the Moss chalk.

QB: Russel Wilson (DEN)

Tua and Jalen Hurts are the 2 QBs with the highest ceilings on the slate, so if they flop or are mediocre, then the field really opens up. Enter Danger Russ!

Wilson has rushed for 30 or more yards in 5 of his past 7 games, for the extra floor. He leads the NFL in TD-to-INT ratio at 20-to-4. And Houston’s defense is strong enough against the run that they’ve been somewhat of a pass funnel. They’ve allowed a top-10 fantasy QB scorer in 6 of the last 7 games.

I’m not saying you should be looking for pivots from Tua Tagovailoa this week, but I am saying that if Tua doesn’t get there, Russ is a nice option to help win you some cash.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 13

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QB: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) - $7,900

I already wrote above how Tua has an ideal matchup if you can pay up and fit him into your lineup.

The one thing I didn’t mention is that this matchup should push Sam Howell into a hole where he’ll have to drop back a lot. In fact, the Commanders already put themselves into situations where he has to drop back 40 or more times per game. That will push the pace on the Dolphins even more.

Trust the chalk and jam Tua and his price tag into your lineup.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF) - $6,100

I think the reputation of the Eagles’ defense is a little off this year. They’ve been vulnerable vs. the pass, and lately the volume against them has been off the charts. For the year, QBs average 41.5 attempts against them. Over the last 4 games, that number has ballooned to 47.5. Guys are just chucking it up at a crazy rate.

Brock has been mostly efficient in getting the ball to his receivers, so he represents a beautiful pay down off of Tua. I think he can go for 300 yards and a couple of TDs.

Tournament Pivot: $7,900 projected ownership 6-8%

RB: Zack Moss (IND) - $4,600

When Jonathan Taylor was out at the start of the season, Moss was a top-5 RB. Check out his fantasy scores (PPR):

• Week 2: 20.7

• Week 3: 22.5

• Week 4: 9

• Week 5: 33.5

• Week 6: 17.9

By the way, Taylor was back in for Weeks 5 and 6, so Moss can produce, and now he’s got the backfield to himself again. SMASH it at this price, despite the ridiculously high ownership.

RB: Raheem Mostert (MIA) - $7,300

Mostert is a solid play for those who are looking to avoid Tua at salary, even if De’Von Achane ends up playing. This is a spot where we’re targeting the Commanders defense, and Mostert will give you some ownership leverage with everyone flocking to Tua.

Tournament Pivot: $5,500 projected ownership 3-6%

WR: Deebo Samuel (SF) - $6,200

On paper, this looks like a Deebo game. The Eagles are especially vulnerable vs. slot WRs and TEs, so George Kittle is in play for the Niners as well, but I like Samuel here as the main wideout this week. If you’re going with Brock Purdy, Samuel should complete your stack.

WR: Adam Thielen (CAR) - $6,600

He’s been difficult to trust as of late, but the Buccaneers haven’t been able to stop anyone in the passing game. The Defense vs. Position Tool from Fantasy Life backs up the choice. It shows the Bucs rank 28th vs. WRs and 28th vs. QBs. Combined with the coaching switch in Carolina, maybe they can get something good going.

So giving Thielen another shot this week isn’t the worst idea.

WR: Courtland Sutton (DEN) - $5,400

Sutton’s been on FIRE and no one has noticed, not even the DraftKings salary guys. $5,400 is dirt cheap for a guy who has double-digit fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games in a plus matchup with the Houston Texans.

WR: Michael Pittman (IND) - $7,100

The matchup with Tennessee is solid. They’re enough of a passing funnel that if Zack Moss ends up being a trap play, Pittman should thrive.

Since Gardner Minshew has taken over as QB, Pittman and Joshua Downs are both in the top-12 in target percentage across the entire league.

Tournament Pivot: $7,200 projected ownership 4-8%

TE: David Njoku (CLE) - $4,100

Njoku is in play because of the volume he’s been getting lately. He’s had 9, 15, and 9 targets in the last 3 games.

I’d just advise you to keep an eye on who will actually be playing QB for the Browns. If it’s Joe Flacco, which is somehow possible this week, Njoku becomes a bit less appealing. It’s smart to watch the situation into the weekend.

TE: Juwan Johnson (NO) - $3,400

Chris Olave is dealing with a concussion. Rashid Shaheed is doubtful. That leaves us with Johnson as the most established healthy guy on the Saints this week. At $3,400, you could sneak a TD in there and set yourself up really nicely.

Tournament Pivot: $3,100 projected ownership 3-6%

DST: Atlanta Falcons - $3,400

While Atlanta isn’t the best defense in the league, many people see them as an option this week against the Jets. There’s always a possibility for turnovers there, especially with their QB situation.

The problem with the Falcons is their ownership could be steamed up just for that reason.

DST: Indianapolis Colts - $3,200

The Colts are $200 cheaper than Atlanta. With the expensive chalk on this slate, every little bit helps.

If Indianapolis can force the Titans into a lot of passing situations, Will Levis has the potential to turn the ball over. The Colts are pretty good at capitalizing on other teams' errors when the matchup is right.

Tournament Pivot: $2,500 projected ownership 8-11%

😳 Aaron Rodgers is SERIOUS about quick return!

🐶 Questionable Cooper Excited for Poetic New QB

😱 Patriots’ RB Elliott Limited on Thursday

🦅 Swift and Smith Full-Go… What about Brown?

✂️ Cardinals Agree to Veteran TE’s Request

🐯 Bengals WR Grades Himself Ahead of Week 13

🚔 Buffalo Pass Rusher Turns Himself in to Police

🐴 Broncos’ WR Returns to Practice after Absence

🐬 Explosive RB Limited as of Thursday’s Practice

🏈 Titans’ Burks Upgraded to Full Participant

Wishing all the fans extra luck in unlucky Week 13. I’ll be back Sunday with some last-minute info for the main slate.

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