5 Confusing Outlooks

Today I’m talking 5 players whose range of outcomes is very wide, and my final verdict on whether they’re worth drafting… in two minutes or less.

5. Stefon Diggs (NE), ADP 90.2, WR40

Stefon Diggs is already practicing and expected to open Week 1 as New England’s clear WR1. He’s getting underdrafted at WR40 despite being the most experienced pass-catcher in an offense with a sophomore QB.

But Diggs is 31, coming off a torn ACL, and was already plummeting in efficiency last season, ranking 26th in target separation, with career-worst marks from the slot.
And while Maye showed promise last season, his own outlook is still hazy, and this Patriots offense is being rebuilt from the ground up.

So even if the volume looks appealing, Diggs feels like a bet on old reputation, not necessarily current reality.

Verdict: Fine to draft as your WR3 or WR4

4. Tyreek Hill (MIA), ADP 28.0, WR12

Tyreek Hill still operated as Miami’s WR1, logging a 26.5% target share and ranking Top-5 in first read percentage. He was fed in scoring position, too. Hill led the team in end zone targets and was Top-12 in total red zone usage.

But the cracks are showing: he ranked just 38th in yards per route run, 36th in explosive play rate, and fell outside the Top 25 WRs in fantasy points per game, his worst finish since 2016. He also dealt with a high ankle sprain, and that late-season fade lines up with a player potentially past his prime.

So unless Miami gets the deep game firing again, WR12 is a full-round overpay for a player whose name now carries more weight than his actual weekly ceiling.

Verdict: Overvalued in drafts but potential rebound could pay off

3. Tyrone Tracy (NYG), ADP 92.2, RB31

Tyrone Tracy produced 1,120 total yards behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. He was a real bright spot in a collapsing offense. He’s dynamic in space, logged 43 targets, and ranked Top-10 in yards per reception among RBs.

But the efficiency doesn’t hold up under the hood: Tracy ranked just 33rd in true yards per carry, fumbled 5 times, and saw his role shrink down the stretch. There are rumblings in camp about Cam Skattebo pushing for touches, and the team is reportedly leaning toward a rotational approach.

So while the pass-catching role is real, Tracy’s not locked into volume — and that makes him a boom-bust gamble disguised as a PPR floor play.

Verdict: Avoid. There are better RB values around his ADP

2. Javonte Williams (DAL), ADP 106.6, RB35

Javonte Williams opened camp with first-team reps and still flashes tackle-breaking juice: he ranked 13th in missed tackle rate before the halfway mark last season.

But the fall-off was brutal: DEAD LAST in yards after contact, 53rd in juke rate, and lost work to backups in key situations. Reports from Dallas suggest the Cowboys want a committee, and Williams is not guaranteed to lead it.

So even if the flashes return, you’re betting on a player whose explosiveness collapsed — in a backfield that might not give him time to prove otherwise.

Verdict: Avoid.

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So that’s it. 5 players who I wouldn’t be surprised to see dominate or bust.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe

P.S. Not ready for the full kit? You can still grab my updated Top-150 rankings for free.