💥 Fantasy Moves, Matchups, and Must-Starts

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Happy Week 10 to everyone who’s still in contention in season-long leagues!

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• The BEST matchups for fantasy football 👍

• Data-driven DraftKings LOCKS 🔒

• Contrarian plays for DFS tournaments 🦊 

• Need-to-know player news and notes 🏈 

My Prop Drop newsletter is tearing it up! Our Week 9 Sunday NFL picks hit at a 75% rate, including a sweep for our “way too early” picks from last Wednesday.

For Thursday Night Football, we went 3 of 4 to keep that pace. Join our community and get in on the fun!

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Jared Goff (DET)

Goff has been a huge spike week guy this season. He’s got finishes of fantasy QB3 and QB8, but he’s also got 4 weeks as the QB18 or worse. The signs point more toward a spike in Week 10, and that starts with the Chargers’ defense.

Despite having fairly good games against guys like Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson, they’re still:

• 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed

• 29th in passing points allowed to opposing QBs

That defense plays a lot of zone and a lot of cover-6 specifically. Against the cover-6, Goff is 40-of-50 passing. Against zone in general, Goff ranks 2nd in QB rating (105), and has 11 TDs.

TE: Sam LaPorta (DET)

A nice little stack play with Goff.

LaPorta, coming out of the bye, is ranked:

• TE5 in target share

• TE5 in team air yard share

• TE6 in yards per route run

• TE4 in targets per route run

Fantasy Life’s Defense vs. Position tool gives a perfect demonstration of why we love the Lions so much this week. It shows the Chargers in the bottom-5 in fantasy points allowed to QBs, WRs, and TEs.

WR: CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

After starting the year at a lower-than-average dropback rate, the last 3 games have seen the Cowboys open it up on offense. They are 5th in the NFL at a 68% dropback rate and 8% over expectations when accounting for game flow.

Beyond that, CeeDee has now played 3 straight games in which the trend is to line him up outside more often, and he’s excelling with a higher share of the downfield targets.

Do I even need to tell you about some of the Giants’ defensive numbers? Well, their blitz-heavy scheme is good for both Dak Prescott and Lamb. When blitzed, Lamb is targeted on 32.9% of the team’s targets and he has 4.2 yards per route run.

WR: DK Metcalf (SEA)

The Seahawks kind of flopped last week, but that could actually be more about the Baltimore Ravens and their stifling defense.

So let’s get back to Metcalf, who has a far more favorable matchup with the Commanders. Despite his struggles, he still leads the team in yards per route run, target share, and air yard share. He’s getting a lot of throws 20+ yards downfield, which has hurt his consistency, but Washington is last in the league when it comes to allowing those long receptions.

Overall, that defense allows 2.1 PPR points per target (32nd).

Honorable mention here to Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but DK has the strongest signal.

WR: Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

He hasn’t scored since Week 1, because the RB is such a monster, but there are still some good signs here.

Deebo Samuel’s return looks like it could actually be a good thing for Aiyuk this week, in that when they share the field, Aiyuk has 31.6% of the team’s targets to Deebo’s 19%.

Also playing more on the perimeter helps against the Jaguars who are more vulnerable out there, allowing 131.9 yards per game on the outside. It’s 31st in the league and sets Aiyuk up.

RB: Bijan Robinson (ATL)

The narrative around Bijan is more about the coaching staff’s usage of him. Even so, he led the Falcons in snaps last week, and he’s efficient:

• 15.5% of carries go for 10+ yards

• 13.6% of carries fail to gain yardage (5th lowest)

The Cardinals have been an RB target, allowing 16.8 rushing points (27th), 10.7 receiving points (27th), and 138.1 scrimmage yards (27th) per game to the position.

So even if Arthur Smith uses Bijan like he has been, we could still get some solid value here.

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)

Will Levis is going to cause some volatility, but the types of targets going Hop’s way are too good to let the risk deter me. He’s getting 27% of the targets and 40% of the air yards with Levis under center.

Then of course, there’s the matchup. Tampa Bay is currently being eaten alive by opposing WRs. Since their bye week, they’ve allowed nearly 80% of targets to WRs to be completed.

WR: Mike Evans (TB)

On the other side of Hopkins we have another grizzled veteran, who just missed a TD last week on a long ball.

The long ball is where he’s making a lot of his money lately. 36.4% of his targets have been deep over the last 2 weeks. He’s probably going to need to come down to more intermediate routes against the Titans, who are very good at defending the deep part of the field.

But that will raise his floor, and I think it puts him in a great spot to be a fantasy producer in Week 10.

RB: Tony Pollard (DAL)

Last but not least, is Pollard. I know people are getting sick of trying to chase the production, but I think this is a good spot.

His touch share is still solid. He had 88% of the backfield touches last week. On the year, he has the 3rd-most goal-to-go touches (17). And this week he gets to play the Giants, who may be considered a cure-all.

They’re 27th in yards per carry allowed and 30th in rushing fantasy points allowed to RBs. Tony’s gonna eat this week.

CLICK HERE for the #1 MUST START of Week 10

• If you want to see the video version of these picks… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

QB: Jared Goff (DET) - $6,400

We know Goff at this point. His biggest signal is playing indoors, and he’s got the Chargers this week. They’re both indoors AND a great matchup, so I’m looking for the Goff spike week.

The DK price on Goff is the most surprising thing. He’s super affordable for what I’m expecting out of him, and his ownership projects to stay under 5%. Let’s go!

QB: Kyler Murray (ARI) - $5,900

There’s a lot of uncertainty coming off a big injury, but at $5,900 I’m willing to take the risk. We know he’s been healthy for weeks but the team has held him back in tough matchups. I think he’s ready to roll.

This is a guy who has proven to be a successful fantasy QB. He’s got passing and rushing upside, so there is a great ceiling here if he can hit it.

Tournament Pivot: $7,700, projected ownership: 0-2%

RB: Tony Pollard (DAL) - $7,300

This situation is pretty clear. This is a one-sided matchup, considering the Giants won’t have Daniel Jones under center. Even though people are sick of Pollard’s underwhelming performances, he’s set up nicely.

While he’s just 2 for 10 on goal-to-go touches, the Cowboys continue to give them to him. I don’t think that’s changing.

Additionally, the Giants’ defense is actually good against the pass but putrid against the run, so Pollard could have a nice day.

RB: Rachaad White (TB) - $5,800

White got a couple of layup TDs last week, and he’s a sneaky good play vs. the Titans, whose rush defense might have a higher reputation than they deserve.

Plus over the last 3 weeks, White has been top-15 in touch percentage and team target percentage. He’s cracked the top-10 in fantasy points per game.

So a guy getting bell-cow work and starting to produce bell-cow numbers is listed for $5,800? Sign me up.

Tournament Pivot: $8,300, projected ownership: 1-3%

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) - $6,000

Since Will Levis took over at QB, Hopkins has been seeing solid target volume, and Tampa Bay’s pass defense is not good. They’ve allowed 11 double-digit fantasy scorers and a few who have gotten over 20 as well.

The utilization report from Fantasy Life shows Hopkins was targeted on 30% of his routes in Week 9, nearing his season high and pointing to a healthy potential.

WR: Marquise Brown (ARI) - $5,200

We had to mention him with the return of Kyler Murray. If you stack these two guys at their current salaries, you’re getting a massive ceiling for the price. I suggest getting a share of that one.

Tournament Pivot: $6,800, projected ownership: 1-3%

TE: Sam LaPorta (DET) - $5,700

What else needs to be said about this kid? He’s in the conversation with Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. He’s top-5 in nearly every statistical category for TEs that we care about in fantasy football.

If you can afford this at TE, pull the trigger.

TE: Trey McBride (ARI) - $3,500

McBride represents the nice pay-down option at the position. We have liked him since Zach Ertz got hurt, and he’s got a 20-point game to his name, but now he gets to take the field with Kyler Murray too.

Tournament Pivot: $3,200, projected ownership: 0-2%

DST: Baltimore Ravens - $4,000

Ideally I’m paying up for Baltimore if I can this week. They are starting to look like the most dominant defense in the league and are starting to be seen as more than a dark horse in the AFC. This week they get the Browns, who have had QB troubles.

DST: Pittsburgh Steelers - $3,800

The Steelers are playing Jordan Love and the Packers this week. Even though Love didn’t throw a pick last week and played fairly well, I still like this matchup for Pittsburgh.

Tournament Pivot: $2,500 projected ownership: 14-18%

🦁 Lions RB on Track to Return Sunday

🐯 Star WR2 Likely Out in Week 10

💪 Fantasy TE “Pretty Sure” He’ll Play

⭐️ Top Wideout Still “Day to Day” With No Timeline

❤️‍🩹 Lockett not a Lock: Full Participant

🏈 Big Boost for San Fran O-Line

🐻 Justin Fields Misses TNF

🚫 RB Williams Released From Cardinals

✅ RB Limited in Practice, Likely to Play

You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, so take a few good ones in Week 10. Good luck!

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