💥 Divisional Saturday Matchups

WE ARE BACK.

It's The Touchdown Press Newsletter. Your #1 source for all things fantasy football, DFS, and sports betting, along with 15,000+ fellow degenerates.

Two HUGE favorites are ready to roll this evening… or are they?

Today in 5 minutes or less, you’ll learn:

• Who to watch in Ravens-Texans 👀 

• DFS picks for 49ers-Packers 💰

• The latest in NFL news and notes 🚨 

• If you want to see the video version of this breakdown… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

The Texans looked really, really good in dispatching the Browns last weekend, but that doesn’t stop the oddsmakers from making Baltimore heavy 9.5-point favorites at home after a week of rest. Fantasy Life’s game hub indicates some measurable advantages for Baltimore on both sides of the ball.

Here’s a quick rundown of the players we’ll need to watch this afternoon for DFS as these two teams face off.

QB: C.J. Stroud (HOU) - $6,700

This game is a rematch from way back in Week 1, Stroud's first-ever NFL start. Since then, he’s passed nearly every test he’s faced and developed into one of the premiere young QBs in the game.

The Ravens don’t run quite as much man coverage as Cleveland, but they still run it above the league average and they are good at getting pressure on the passer. In fact, the 48% pressure rate Stroud faced in Week 1 was the 2nd-highest rate he faced all season, and the Texans didn’t score a TD.

To add to the challenge, rookie QBs who have faced the Ravens under John Harbaugh are just 2-17, with an 0-2 playoff record. AND Stroud has had much tougher sledding on the road than at home. He’ll have to rise to the occasion if he wants to keep his team alive this week.

WR: Nico Collins (HOU) - $7,100

Collins will be fairly highly owned in DFS based solely on what he’s done recently, but should he be? The Ravens have been very stingy with opposing WR1s, and don’t have much else to defend in terms of wideouts. However, I do like Nico’s projected volume.

In 201 pass routes with Stroud and without Tank Dell, Nico has 3.8 yards per route, 35% of the team’s targets, 47% of the team’s air yards, and is targeted on 30% of his routes. So from a volume perspective, he’s sort of got it on lockdown. It will be fun to see how it shakes out against that tough defense.

QB: Lamar Jackson (BAL) - $7,900

I don’t have to tell you that Lamar is a game-changer for the Baltimore Ravens. The team’s record with him healthy (59-22) vs. when he’s not playing (8-13) is drastic, and with a full healthy season he’s led the team to a 13-4 record, beating 6 playoff teams along the way. Lamar also set his career high in completion rate and yards per completion. This is a tough player who brings his whole team up with him.

The Texans tend to leave a clean pocket for opposing QBs, and when they do, they allow a 74% completion rate (27th), and 7.9 yards per pass attempt (25th). Even if they do get some pressure, Lamar leads the league in yards per pass attempt when under pressure.

To make matters worse for Houston, they finished the season ranked 28th in rushing points allowed to QBs, which we know to be a strength of the Ravens’ signal caller. He’s set up for a big week.

WR: Zay Flowers (BAL) - $6,000

Now that Mark Andrews is out, I’m all the way in on Flowers. In a nearly identical number of routes with and without Andrews on the field in 2023, he’s targeted 19.1% of the time with him and 22.4% without him. It doesn’t seem like a huge difference, but where it matters is in the red zone. Flowers has just 1 of his 6 TDs and 0 end zone targets when the two share a field.

As another data point, Houston was 28th in yards per catch allowed to WRs (13.2 yards).

• If you want to see the video version of this breakdown… subscribe to my YouTube channel.

The second game of Saturday also features a heavy line in favor of the home team as San Francisco comes in at a 9.5-point favorite. Fantasy Life has the 49ers with some standout matchups, particularly in the running game, which makes sense considering how the team has played all season long.

The players who will swing this one are fairly apparent, so let’s take a closer look at the most important matchups here.

QB: Brock Purdy (SF) - $6,500

When Purdy has his full stable of weapons in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, the 49ers offense has averaged 7.3 yards per play. That’s just absurd.

The Green Bay defense will have its hands full and their best shot against Purdy is to get some pressure. Even though he’s been really good when pressured this year, his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt still decrease. Plus, when the Packers give their opponents a clean pocket, they’ve been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.

Either way, Purdy should be locked and loaded.

RB: Christian McCaffrey (SF) - $8,800

CMC may be the highest-owned player of the weekend, and it’s because he’s highly likely to find the end zone (21 total TDs on the year).

With the 49ers, it’s tough predicting which guy is going to get the production because they really are a true team. They’re all efficient and they become somewhat of a DFS guessing game. McCaffrey has as good a shot as any of them, even though he’s expensive.

QB: Jordan Love (GB) - $6,200

There’s some intrigue here from a game script perspective. Love’s been terrific since Week 11. In that time he has 20 TDs (2 rushing) to just 1 INT. The only player with a better QB rating in that span is Brock Purdy.

San Francisco has faced a lot of pass volume this year for obvious reasons. So even if the Packers fall short tonight, Love could still be in line for production against that tough defense.

RB: Aaron Jones (GB) - $6,700

We need to make a pros and cons list for this one.

Jones has been so good recently, with 4 straight 100-yard games and the 3 TDs last weekend, but the 49ers are a GREAT run defense and the script isn’t favorable. Jones has more explosive runs in the last 4 weeks than in the entire rest of the season, but he isn’t catching a lot of passes.

Ultimately, he’s an affordable click who’s getting the usage, and with the unpredictability of the Packers’ WR corps, he’s a fine choice.

Packers Pass Catchers

The Packers are even more unpredictable than the 49ers. All of them seem to share work and contribute at various times. Here’s the route breakdown on Love’s 21 drop backs from last weekend:

• Romeo Doubs: 16 routes

• Tucker Kraft: 14 routes

• Dontayvion Wicks: 13 routes

• Jayden Reed: 11 routes

• Christian Watson: 8 routes

• Luke Musgrave: 8 routes

• Bo Melton: 7 routes

It’s a lot to try and predict. If the 49ers’ defense gives us any signal at all, it’s for the outside guys, Doubs and Wicks. But ultimately this is a tough group to get a read on.

✍️ Raiders Reportedly Close to Hiring New Coach

🚫 Ravens Announce Status of TE Andrews

🐏 Vote of Confidence Secured for Rams’ Morris

💵 Lions’ Betting Line Largest in Franchise History 

🩼 Key Bills Ruled Out for Game Against Chiefs

😢 Toney, Others Questionable for Kansas City 

🏴‍☠️ WR Godwin Among Players with Uncertain Status

🦁 TE Sam LaPorta’s Practice Status from Friday 

🏈 A Rundown of NFL Head Coaching Vacancies

Enjoy sweating those bets tonight!

The Touchdown Press is a must-read for every NFL fan — pure signal, highly actionable, and one-liners funny enough to make you pee a little bit.

If this one didn’t hit the spot, reply to this email... I would love to hear from you on how you think we can do better next time.

By the way, I’m live on YouTube every Sunday morning from 9:00-11:00am EST. Come join us and I’m happy to answer any additional questions you have!