Dark Horse #1’s

These are the players going outside the Top-3 at each position I think can absolutely finish first this season … in two minutes or less.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), ADP 9.7

Amon-Ra has finished as a top-5 WR in back-to-back seasons, fueled by elite usage in every scoring zone. He ranked 2nd in red zone targets, 5th in overall target share, and 4th in first downs per route run. But Ben Johnson is gone, and with him, the league's most efficient play-calling. Detroit now hands the keys to John Morton, who's installing new formations that could shift more of the offense toward Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs. So, why is he still a WR1 candidate? Because even with that touchdown spike masking a drop in targets per game, he still posted 92.4 receiving yards per game over the final eight weeks, and no one has more catches than St. Brown outside of CeeDee Lamb over the last three years. He’s not just safe, he’s one of the few WRs who can finish WR1 overall, even in a slightly less aggressive scheme .

TE: George Kittle (SF), ADP 38.3

Kittle was the TE1 in fantasy points per game, 1st in yards per route, 3rd in YAC per catch, and 2nd in red zone targets last season. But even though he’s 32 in October, the Niners’ WR room is in chaos. Deebo Samuel is gone. Aiyuk’s recovering from a torn ACL. And the team just re-signed Kittle through 2029, locking him in as a foundational piece. Still, drafters are treating him like a consolation prize behind Bowers and McBride. So let’s reset expectations: this is a player with seven straight top-6 finishes, who just earned a 4-year deal, and now walks into the softest target competition he’s seen in years. Kittle already ranked 6th in target share and 5th in deep targets last season… and every metric says he’s not slowing down. If volume tilts even slightly in his direction, he’s a real threat to repeat as TE1, and you’re getting him two full rounds later .

QB: Bo Nix (DEN), ADP 71.2

Bo Nix was the QB6 in points per game from Weeks 5–18, and finished top-10 in accuracy rating, completion over expected, red zone completion rate, and fantasy points per dropback. He also had just two top-7 finishes before Week 18. So, why is he still a fantasy cheat code? Because Sean Payton just gave him a full arsenal: Evan Engram, R.J. Harvey, Pat Bryant, and a returning J.K. Dobbins behind the league’s 2nd-best offensive line. Nix also ranked 8th in QB rushing yards, giving him a built-in floor most pocket passers don’t have. If his deep ball attempts convert even marginally more, and this offense expands vertically, Nix becomes a top-5 fantasy QB hiding in Round 7 .

RB: Christian McCaffrey (SF), ADP 8.7

CMC has finished as the RB1 or RB2 in every healthy season since 2019, and in his last two games played with Brock Purdy, he handled over 85% of backfield touches and topped 100 scrimmage yards both times. But he’s coming off a year derailed by bilateral Achilles tendinitis and a PCL injury, has played 7 or fewer games in four separate seasons, and just turned 29. Drafters are fading him due to “injury risk”, ignoring the fact that he’s now fully healthy and involved in every offseason rep. So here’s the real story: McCaffrey steps into the NFL’s 4th-easiest rushing schedule, with Kyle Shanahan doubling down on a run-first identity and a decimated WR corps that will likely funnel more early-season passing work to CMC and Kittle. He still owns the highest per-touch workload in fantasy, and the discount is gone once drafters remember what 24.5 PPR points per game actually looks like. He’s not “safe.” He’s the only player left who can break fantasy from the RB spot, and he’s going at a 1.08 discount

So if these guys hit, you’ll dominate your draft buddies this season… As promised, in two minutes or less.

Over 12,000 players used this to prep last season. My 2025 Draft Kit is open now, but only a few dozen spots are available this year. I’m keeping it limited so I can give members my full attention.

See you tomorrow,

-Joe