😱 Dalton Schultz’s ADP is out of control

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I'm bucking the latest fantasy craze and fading a TE whose ADP is out of control.

It's Dalton Schultz (DAL), ADP 66.5, TE6.

Here's why:

First, I admit he's a great player. He was overall TE3 in '21 across all formats behind just Andrews and Kelce.

He's in a good situation too.

Likely to see a bump in 13th-ranked target share (16.4%) with Cooper gone and Gallup still injured.

But I see some problems with the value:

Schultz was TE5 in PPR points per game, with 12.3, a 5.4 point drop off from TE1 Andrews.

The same drop off from Schultz takes us all the way down to TE27 (Dan Arnold).

There's also too much space between Schultz and guys with similar prospects.

T.J. Hockenson was TE6 in PPG with 12.1.

His ADP?

88.7 -- 22 spots later! Big gap for just .2 points per game.

For context, Schultz is going just 16 spots after Kittle, whose PPG was 1.8 higher.

Hockenson also bested Schultz in a number of important categories:

• Target share (5th vs. 13th)

• Air yards share (3rd vs. 13th)

• Dominator rating (2nd vs. 13th)

• Contested catch rate (1st vs. 15th)

Then there's Dallas Goedert.

His ADP is over 30 slots cheaper (97.6).

The numbers don't justify it...

Goedert vs. Schultz:

• ADOT (8th vs. 13th)

• Target share (8th vs. 13th)

• Yards per target (1st vs. 12th)

• Yards after catch (5th vs. 6th)

• Yards per route run (1st vs. 11th)

And for a much better bargain, you could do worse than Dawson Knox (ADP 102.6).

As part of arguably the NFL's best offense, Knox was still TE9 at 10.9 PPG.

The point is there's a ton of value at other positions between Schultz and those guys.

Other red flags exist too. Dallas has the 10th hardest TE strength of schedule, according to Fantasypros.

And Schultz doesn't get open as easily as you think. Was 23rd in target separation.

Just 15th in contested catch rate (38.9%).

And 16th in true catch rate (85.7%).

Don't forget he's unhappy with the Cowboys after signing the franchise tag.

Playing for a contract helps some guys, but unhappiness brings uncertainty.

Maybe the mania will fade as we get into the preseason, but for now I’m laying off Schultz at this crazy price tag.

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-Joe