😉 The biggest edge in DFS is obvious

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It's something only about 5% of players do on DraftKings & FanDuel.

Master this 1 skill during NFL season, and 10x your chances of winning more money:

I believe the most overlooked source of expected value (EV) in DFS is late-swap.

What is late-swap?

DK/FD allow you to add/remove players in your lineup after the slate locks.

As long as...

That individual's game has yet to kick off.

So here are 5 reasons why that flexibility matters, and 4 situations to look out for:

1. You have more information.

Think about it... you have an additional three hours of context.

• How are the popular players doing?

• How are your teams doing?

• How accurate were you on ownership?

Yet most people decline the chance to re-do their lineup.

2. Capitalize on people's laziness.

Maybe not even laziness... it's probably an even worse reason.

• Anchoring bias

• Fear of missing out

• Denial of lineup ceiling

• Holding on for a min-cash

Play for 1st. Always.

Or what the hell are we even doing here?

3. Free tools updating in real-time.

There are multiple free resources that update ownership percentages across different stakes after lock.

This information is gold.

Use this context to your advantage.

It's additional information you would have killed to have before kickoff.

Why not reassess?

You should always look at your initial build as your starting point.

That reminds me...

4. Late flexibility makes a great tie-breaker.

If we are honest with ourselves...

Many people overvalue the accuracy of median projections.

Projections that matter much less after lock, by the way.

So simply playing the guy from the afternoon slate is often the sharp side.

5. Hope. Even if you don't deserve it.

We've all been here...

"It's okay, CMC only scored 50.7 DK points, he was too expensive anyway."

"All we need is 4 touchdowns from Aaron Jones in the afternoon, and we are back baby!"

(This happened once, and I've never felt more alive).

You're probably asking yourself by now, when is the optimal time to late-swap?

I'm glad you asked ⤵️

Wait, this is important...

Every time I'm considering a late swap before the afternoon games, I talk to the same people.

People who refuse to simply default to telling me what I want to hear.

Fresh eyes can give you perspective on how dead/live your teams are.

Incredibly valuable.

Okay, so "when" and "why" we late-swap:

1. Give yourself a chance in H2Hs.

This one is pretty simple. Plenty of people have touted this in the past.

If you are going to play cash games this is not optional:

• Go through your H2Hs

• Reverse engineer salary to see who they likely have remaining

Start with your highest-stakes action.

Do this every slate.

If you are blocked:

(you have the same amounts of slots left and likely the same player)

• You must swap

• Salary no longer matters

Give yourself a chance to pass.

If you are completely buried:

(You have PMR, but whiffed on some big fades that went off)

Absolutely some feel here... but more than likely:

• You must swap

• Salary no longer matters

• Focus on no duplicate players the rest of the way

Give yourself a chance to catch up.

2. Chance to elevate yourself in a top-heavy payout structure.

• Don't play for a Top-10 finish

• Play for a Top-3 finish

Because that's where all the money is these days in DK/FD tournaments.

It should be pretty easy to tell if you are blocked at the top of the leaderboard.

Try to win.

This goes for large-field AND small-field.

If you find yourself becoming content with going 1.5x on your buy-in with a min-cash...

Check yourself.

Anything can happen in an afternoon of football, benefit from that chaos.

Here's the only time most people use late swap in GPPs:

• Completely buried

• Move to a low-owned stack

• Pray to min cash

This is fine, by the way.

Might as well.

But not enough people prioritize swaps when it's already going extremely well.

3. Leverage ownership with late news.

And I'm not just talking about news on Sunday morning...

(even though we know the later something comes out, the fewer casual players will pivot)

What provides the most leverage:

• uncertain injury situation at 4pm

• could unlock 15-20 RB touches

• at a low (backup) salary

• and low ownership

Build in an afternoon 2v2 into your lineup accordingly.

I can't overstate how powerful this optionality is for your EV.

4. Chance at back-door min cash

It happens once or twice a year.

And it's amazing...

The day starts a complete disaster.

You have the chalk QB left and a premium WR1 who will be heavily owned in the afternoon game.

Forced to late-swap.

Somehow the aforementioned WR1 has a QB throwing him the ball, who will come at sub 10% ownership.

Easy pivot.

His WR2 (with a tough CB matchup) somehow fits your remaining salary.

Watch Twitter tilt the failure of the "lock" WR1.

Somehow min cash GPP.

Players make thousands of dollars in high stakes every year with these types of 2v2 pivots in both cash games and GPPs.

Respect.

Not everyone has that much on the line each Sunday.

But stacking +EV compounds over time

Reminder:

Building slowly, while continuing to make mistakes and evolve, is totally okay.

Tl;dr (part 1) Why and how

1. More information is available

2. People are lazy.

3. Free tools.

4. Use it as a tie-breaker.

5. Give yourself hope.

Late swap provides clear EV and is criminally underutilized.

Tl;dr (part 2) When and more why

1. Reverse engineer your H2Hs

2. Elevate in a top-heavy payout

3. Leverage ownership w/ news

4. Back-door min cash

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-Joe